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Published
04 May 26
Views
1.4k
Invested
AdobeADBE
ADBE logo
Fair Value
US$163.23
Share price04 May
US$252.2354.5% overvalued intrinsic discount
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1Y-27.80%
7D-5.36%

Classic Value Trap

HE
heartwood

Author hasn't set their bio yet

Published
04 May 26
Views
1.4k
Invested
Fair ValueUS$163.23
Share priceUS$252.23
54.5% overvalued intrinsic discount
Narrative
Updates0

Adobe was an amazing company. I'm an end user since 1991. I think it's become a value trap. Look at the performance for the past 6 years. The expert valuation continues to look rosy but stock value continues to sink and lag. I'm using a long call as a value test. Not only are my shares continuing to drop from the high over $600 a share but the call continues to lose value. Adobe's investment in Firefly has caused great harm in the user community. It cannibalizes the user base. It devalues the work of original content creators and it's driving the independent users to products like Canva and DaVinci. It's not running from the burning building yet but as a long time user who doesn't want to relearn new software I keep cheering the team forward but it looks like they don't know what to do with the ball and may not even know what the ball looks like.

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Comments

4 comments

Disclaimer

The user heartwood has a position in NasdaqGS:ADBE. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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Fair Value vs Share Price

US$163.23
vs US$252.2354.5% overvalued intrinsic discount
PastFuture024b20152018202120242026202720302031Revenue US$18.9bEarnings US$5.6b
-5%
Revenue growth
29.5%
Profit margin

Recent News & Updates

No updates

Recent updates

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Company analysis

Undervalued with adequate balance sheet.

Market capUS$98.9b
PB8.5x
Estimated Growth8.0%
Dividend YieldN/A
Full analysis

CEO & management

Shantanu Narayen
CEO
5.0yrs
CEO Tenure

Operates as a technology company worldwide.

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