Last Update 17 Dec 25

GTM: Future Upside Will Depend On AI Demand And Upmarket Momentum

Analysts have nudged their average price target on ZoomInfo Technologies modestly higher, to roughly $13 per share, citing Q3 outperformance; improving upmarket traction; early benefits from AI offerings like Copilot; and signs of stabilization in the downmarket customer base despite ongoing growth headwinds.

Analyst Commentary

Street research following the Q3 report reflects a cautiously constructive stance, with several firms modestly lifting price targets while maintaining mixed ratings that balance improving execution against lingering growth concerns.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight a solid Q3 beat, noting that better than expected top line performance and raised full year guidance support a case for gradual multiple expansion.
Improving traction upmarket and evidence of more stable trends in the downmarket customer base are viewed as early signs that growth could re-accelerate if demand conditions continue to normalize.
New AI driven offerings, including Copilot and related operations tools, are seen as important incremental growth levers that could enhance win rates, upsell momentum, and long term revenue durability.
Some research desks describe the tone on management execution as improving, with enhanced confidence that the company can navigate macro headwinds while protecting margins and free cash flow.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts argue that, despite Q3 outperformance, the pace of improvement is too modest to justify a major re rating, as revenue growth remains in the mid single digits and large customer additions are limited.
Persistent weakness in the down market and uneven upmarket momentum are seen as signals that retention and expansion trends may not yet be on a sustainably stronger footing.
The stock is viewed by some as likely to lag faster growing front office software peers until unlevered free cash flow growth and margins inflect meaningfully higher alongside revenue.
Several notes caution that the AI opportunity, while promising, still needs clearer proof of material contribution to growth, especially given an evolving competitive landscape and uncertain SMB demand.

What's in the News

Forrester's commissioned Total Economic Impact study found a composite ZoomInfo customer achieved a 316% ROI, $7.6 million in quantified benefits, and payback in under six months, driven by better data quality, productivity, and revenue growth (Forrester TEI study, client announcement).
ZoomInfo launched its AI Builder Catalog, a specialized dataset that uses verifiable proof of work signals like open source code, academic publications, and patents to help recruiters identify top and emerging AI talent beyond traditional resumes (product announcement).
The company raised full year 2025 GAAP revenue guidance to a range of $1.237 billion to $1.240 billion, up from its prior outlook of $1.215 billion to $1.225 billion (corporate guidance).
ZoomInfo updated fourth quarter 2025 guidance, projecting GAAP revenue between $307 million and $310 million (corporate guidance).
From July 1 to October 29, 2025, ZoomInfo repurchased about 11.2 million shares for $117.22 million, completing a broader buyback of roughly 69.9 million shares for $749.42 million under its February 2024 authorization (buyback update).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate: Unchanged at approximately $12.35 per share, reflecting a stable intrinsic value assessment.
Discount Rate: Risen slightly from about 9.58% to 9.60%, indicating a marginally higher required return on equity risk.
Revenue Growth: Effectively unchanged at roughly 3.86% annually, suggesting no material revision to long term top line expectations.
Net Profit Margin: Stable at about 15.24%, with no meaningful change to long run profitability assumptions.
Future P/E: Increased very modestly from roughly 19.19x to 19.20x, implying a slightly higher valuation multiple on forward earnings.

Accelerating AI adoption and product innovation are cementing ZoomInfo's platform as essential for enterprise sales teams, supporting durable revenue growth and expanding margins.
Strategic upmarket focus and integrated solutions are driving improved customer retention, higher-value contracts, and operating leverage, positioning the company for sustained profitability.
Heavy reliance on large clients, declining smaller customer base, commoditization risk, rising data regulation, and unproven international growth threaten long-term stability and profitability.

Catalysts

About ZoomInfo Technologies

Provides go-to-market intelligence and engagement platform for sales, marketing, operations, and recruiting professionals in the United States and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Accelerating adoption of AI and automation by enterprise sales and marketing teams is driving more organizations to standardize ZoomInfo as their core go-to-market data foundation, demonstrated by record upmarket deals, increased platform embedding, and growing average contract values-factors likely to support durable revenue growth and eventual margin expansion.
Enterprises are prioritizing digital transformation and high-quality, unified data as essential for enabling successful AI initiatives and workflow automation, pushing customers to increase reliance on ZoomInfo's integrated solutions (Data as a Service, Copilot, Go-To-Market Studio), which is strengthening customer retention rates and positioning the company for rising recurring revenues and improved net revenue retention.
Expansion into more sophisticated workflow and analytics tools (beyond simple contact data) is increasing cross-sell and upsell opportunities within existing accounts, as seen by customers doubling their annual spend and the rapid growth in the operations solution, which supports both higher average customer value and sustained top-line growth.
A strategic focus on upmarket customers-who have higher lifetime value, greater stickiness, and significantly higher margins compared to downmarket clients-combined with internal AI-driven efficiency gains (reductions in headcount and resource reallocation) is creating operating leverage and positioning the company for structurally higher net and operating margins over time.
As leading enterprises consolidate their go-to-market tech stacks and seek seamless integration of sales intelligence platforms with CRMs and marketing automation, ZoomInfo's product innovation and early-mover advantage in AI-powered sales tools (Copilot, Go-To-Market Studio) are cementing its indispensability, which underpins long-term growth and provides the foundation for premium pricing and resilience against commoditization, directly benefitting both revenue and margin outlooks.

ZoomInfo Technologies Earnings and Revenue Growth

ZoomInfo Technologies Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming ZoomInfo Technologies's revenue will grow by 2.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 7.3% today to 15.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $201.1 million (and earnings per share of $0.64) by about September 2028, up from $89.2 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $250.3 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $82 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 19.3x on those 2028 earnings, down from 37.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Interactive Media and Services industry at 16.9x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.25%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

ZoomInfo Technologies Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The rapid expansion upmarket and focus on large enterprise customers increases exposure to customer concentration risk, as significant revenue is now dependent on a smaller number of high-value clients; any loss or renegotiation of these contracts could lead to revenue volatility and earnings pressure.
Downmarket revenues are declining significantly (-11% YoY), and there is no clear indication of imminent stabilization, raising concerns about the company's ability to maintain a broad and diversified customer base, which could hamper long-term revenue growth and net margin expansion.
Ongoing investments in AI-powered products and workflow automation heighten the risk of commoditization, as more competitors and open-source alternatives emerge with similar features, potentially eroding ZoomInfo's differentiation, pricing power, and gross margins.
Heightened global privacy regulation (such as GDPR and CCPA) and increasing customer emphasis on first-party data management could curb the availability and utility of third-party business intelligence data, driving up compliance and data acquisition costs, and threatening future product competitiveness, retention, and net income.
International growth prospects remain unproven, with limited commentary or concrete evidence of meaningful traction outside North America; expansion could be hampered by stricter regional data laws, regulatory headwinds, and lack of brand recognition, all of which may materially constrain long-term top-line growth and profitability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $11.653 for ZoomInfo Technologies based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $15.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $7.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.3 billion, earnings will come to $201.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 19.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.3%.
Given the current share price of $10.38, the analyst price target of $11.65 is 10.9% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

Have other thoughts on ZoomInfo Technologies?

Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.

Create Narrative

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

GTM: AI Initiatives And Upmarket Gains Will Shape Fair Valuation Ahead