ONDS: Roboteam Acquisition Will Drive Backlog Expansion And Future Earnings Upside

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Ondas Holdings higher from $11.00 to $11.50, reflecting increased confidence in the company’s accelerating revenue growth and expanding deal pipeline following recent strategic moves and strong quarterly performance.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts highlight that the recent acquisition activity and expanding backlog are reinforcing confidence in Ondas Holdings' ability to outpace its stated revenue targets and sustain a higher growth trajectory.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts view the Roboteam acquisition as a strategic expansion that broadens Ondas' addressable market and supports higher long term revenue visibility, which underpins upward revisions to price targets.
Stronger than expected Q3 revenue growth, with sales growing multiple times year over year, is seen as evidence that the company is successfully converting its pipeline and executing on its guidance.
The sharp improvement potential in gross margin, from the mid 20 percent range toward a level closer to 70 percent over time, is viewed as a key earnings and valuation driver as scale efficiencies take hold.
A record backlog plus a sizeable pro forma cash position provide a solid foundation for continued investment, further deal making, and execution against a revenue goal that bullish analysts now see as achievable or beatable.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts remain cautious that the pace and integration of acquisitions, including Roboteam, could introduce execution risk and delay the realization of anticipated revenue and margin synergies.
There is concern that expectations for gross margins to ramp meaningfully higher may prove optimistic if product mix, competitive pricing, or integration costs do not evolve as projected.
Some see the reliance on ongoing capital deployment and a robust deal pipeline as a potential risk, noting that any slowdown in transaction activity could pressure growth assumptions embedded in current valuation levels.
Questions persist around the durability of demand and backlog conversion, with skeptics warning that slippage in orders or customer delays could challenge the aggressive revenue targets now reflected in revised price objectives.

What's in the News

Stockholders approved doubling authorized common shares from 400 million to 800 million at a November 20, 2025 special meeting, expanding Ondas Holdings future financing and acquisition flexibility (Company filings)
Investors convened at a November 20, 2025 special shareholders meeting in Boston to vote on increasing authorized common shares and boosting the 2021 Stock Incentive Plan share reserve (Company filings)
Ondas Holdings completed a follow on equity offering totaling approximately $425 million, issuing common stock, pre funded warrants, and common warrants to support growth initiatives (Company filings)
Multiple 60 day lock up agreements are in effect from October 6 to December 5, 2025, covering more than 329 million common shares plus certain RSUs, warrants, and stock options held by executives, directors, and key holders (Prospectus supplement)
Ondas Holdings was added to the S&P Global BMI Index, increasing its visibility with institutional and index tracking investors (Index provider announcement)

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly, increasing from $11.00 to $11.50 per share.
Discount Rate has inched higher from approximately 8.04 percent to 8.05 percent, reflecting a marginal uptick in perceived risk or required return.
Revenue Growth assumption has increased meaningfully, moving from about 134.4 percent to roughly 166.3 percent, signaling higher expectations for top line expansion.
Net Profit Margin forecast has edged down slightly from approximately 9.96 percent to about 9.67 percent, suggesting modestly lower long term profitability assumptions.
Future P/E multiple has fallen significantly, decreasing from about 197.0x to roughly 144.8x, implying a more conservative valuation relative to projected earnings.

Strategic partnerships and expanding defense contracts in various sectors are driving significant revenue growth and market diversification for Ondas Holdings.
Advancements in autonomous systems and private network technologies are set to enhance operational efficiency, potentially improving margins and financial performance.
High operating expenses and debt reliance are challenges, with conservative revenue expectations and volatile margins posing risks to future profitability and growth.

Catalysts

About Ondas Holdings

Provides private wireless, drone, and automated data solutions in the United States and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Ondas anticipates record revenue growth in 2025, primarily driven by Ondas Autonomous Systems (OAS), due to significant backlog and expanding programs with Optimus and Iron Drone systems in defense and homeland security sectors. This will directly impact revenue.
The strategic partnership with Palantir Technologies aims to leverage advanced AI capabilities to enhance operational efficiencies and scale OAS’s operations, which is expected to support the revenue ramp and broaden their customer base, influencing earnings and margins through improved operational scale.
The expansion of OAS’s market presence, with increased customer engagement and government contracts in defense sectors in Israel and the UAE, is set to secure additional military customers, suggesting potential revenue growth and improved market diversification.
Expected improvements in operating leverage as revenues grow, particularly at OAS, are set to recover gross margins, which could reach 50% or better in the second half of 2025, impacting net margins positively.
Continued strategic value building at Ondas Networks and progress in private wireless network technologies for rail operations, which includes 900-megahertz network rollouts and new product opportunities, aims to unlock further revenue streams and bolster financial performance.

Ondas Holdings Earnings and Revenue Growth

Ondas Holdings Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Ondas Holdings's revenue will grow by 141.1% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Ondas Holdings will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Ondas Holdings's profit margin will increase from -433.8% to the average US Communications industry of 10.7% in 3 years.
If Ondas Holdings's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $16.3 million (and earnings per share of $0.08) by about July 2028, up from $-46.9 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 40.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from -7.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Communications industry at 28.4x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.59%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Ondas Holdings Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Ondas Holdings faced challenges in 2024, such as extending timelines at Ondas Networks and disruptions due to military activity in Israel, which could impede future revenue growth if similar issues recur.
The company's revenue expectations for 2025 remain conservative at $25 million, with uncertainties related to Ondas Networks affecting the potential for revenue expansion.
Gross margins are expected to be volatile due to the early stages of platform adoption and shifts in revenue mix, which may impact net margins and profitability.
As of 2024, Ondas Holdings reported high operating expenses and adjusted EBITDA loss, with existing revenues not covering these expenses, posing a risk to future earnings if revenue growth does not accelerate as projected.
The $52 million in debt outstanding and reliance on raising additional funds or extending debt terms might impact the company's financial health and its ability to invest in growth initiatives.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $2.5 for Ondas Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $3.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $2.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $151.6 million, earnings will come to $16.3 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 40.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.6%.
Given the current share price of $2.1, the analyst price target of $2.5 is 16.0% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Analyst Optimism Grows for Ondas Holdings Amid Strong Sector Momentum and Upward Valuation Revisions