Last Update 08 Feb 26

Fair value Increased 2.45%

ASND: Yorvipath Launch And Achondroplasia Data Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have nudged their price targets on Ascendis Pharma higher, with the updated fair value estimate moving from about $270.52 to $277.16 as they factor in recent bullish target hikes, stronger assumptions for Yorvipath demand, and higher long term expectations for TransCon CNP and Skytrofa, supported by a slightly richer forward P/E multiple.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts point to Yorvipath demand trends that were in line with Street expectations for preliminary FY25 sales, which they see as supportive for execution on current revenue assumptions.
Several recent target hikes reflect confidence that a strong Yorvipath launch is central to Ascendis Pharma's growth story and remains a key driver in their valuation models.
Some analysts highlight the recent 52 week COACH data in achondroplasia as resetting expectations for TransCon CNP, which they factor into higher long term contribution from this program.
Bullish analysts view the combined potential of TransCon CNP and Skytrofa as important for future market share, and they incorporate this into higher target prices and richer P/E assumptions.

Bearish Takeaways

Even with higher targets, cautious analysts may see current valuations as leaving less room for execution missteps, especially given the reliance on Yorvipath to support the investment case.
The thesis around TransCon CNP and Skytrofa assumes that the combination gains broad adoption over time, so any slower than expected uptake could weigh on growth expectations embedded in models.
With recent P/E multiples edging higher, some bearish analysts could question how much of the anticipated product performance is already reflected in the share price.
The focus on a few core assets, particularly Yorvipath and TransCon CNP, means setbacks in clinical, regulatory, or commercial execution for these programs could have an outsized impact on valuation.

What's in the News

Rumor regarding Ascendis Pharma highlighted in the Betaville blog, drawing attention to the stock in market commentary (Periodicals).
Topline Week 52 COACH Phase 2 results in children with achondroplasia reported durable growth, improvements in body proportionality and arm span, and safety and tolerability generally consistent with monotherapies for TransCon CNP and TransCon hGH, with all children completing 52 weeks and remaining on therapy (Key Developments).
TransCon CNP for children with achondroplasia is under Priority Review at the U.S. FDA with a PDUFA target action date of February 28, 2026, and is also under review by the European Medicines Agency as a monotherapy (Key Developments).
Pivotal Week 52 results from the ApproaCH Trial of TransCon CNP in children with achondroplasia published in JAMA Pediatrics, reporting higher annualized growth velocity versus placebo, improved body proportionality and lower limb alignment, quality of life gains across several measures, and a safety profile similar to placebo (Key Developments).
Board of directors approved amendments to the Articles of Association related to the grant and terms of various warrant programs, with multiple warrant terms now codified as appendices to the articles (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair value estimate moved from about US$270.52 to roughly US$277.16, indicating a modest upward reset in the modeled equity value.
The discount rate is now 6.99% versus 6.83% previously, implying a slightly higher required return being applied to future cash flows.
Revenue growth sits at around 52.84% compared with 52.77% in the prior assumptions, a very small adjustment to the growth outlook used in the model.
Net profit margin is now modeled at about 42.31% versus 42.24% previously, reflecting a minor change in expected profitability levels.
The future P/E stands at roughly 19.11x compared with 18.63x, a modest step up in the valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

Strong product adoption, expanding indications, and pipeline advances support robust, recurring revenue growth and reduce concentration risks.
Alignment with healthcare trends and increasing global disease prevalence drives broader market penetration, supporting long-term revenue and margin expansion.
High dependence on a few key drugs, rising costs, and regulatory or competitive risks threaten growth, margins, and overall financial stability.

Catalysts

About Ascendis Pharma

Operates as a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on developing TransCon-based therapies for unmet medical needs in Denmark, rest of Europe, North America, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Robust adoption and accelerating global launch of YORVIPATH, underpinned by strong demand, broad payer approvals, expanding commercial reach to more countries, and label expansion efforts (e.g., wider indications and higher dosing), is expected to drive sustained top-line revenue growth and support margin leverage as the installed patient base increases and access improves.
Expansion of SKYTROFA into adult growth hormone deficiency and pursuit of further label extensions (pediatric and multiple rare indications), alongside continued dominance in pediatric GHD, broadens the addressable market and enables new recurring revenue streams, contributing to both revenue growth and improving long-term earnings stability.
Regulatory progress and pipeline advancement, such as the priority review for TransCon CNP in achondroplasia and positive combination trial results, are paving the way for new blockbuster therapies and potential multi-billion EUR peak sales opportunities, enhancing future revenue growth and reducing revenue concentration risk.
Long-acting, patient-centric TransCon platform aligns with healthcare provider and payer preferences for convenient, durable treatments, reinforcing strong uptake and value-based reimbursement, thus supporting premium pricing, market penetration, and gross margin improvement.
Increasing global prevalence and diagnosis of chronic endocrine and rare diseases, combined with rising healthcare spending and treatment access in both developed and emerging markets, structurally expands Ascendis's addressable patient pool, facilitating steady, secular demand growth and durable net revenue expansion over the long term.

Ascendis Pharma Earnings and Revenue Growth

Ascendis Pharma Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Ascendis Pharma's revenue will grow by 63.9% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -55.3% today to 38.3% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach €826.6 million (and earnings per share of €12.6) by about September 2028, up from €-271.2 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting €1.2 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting €139.6 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 19.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from -38.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 15.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.33% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.45%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Ascendis Pharma Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Heavy dependence on continued blockbuster growth from YORVIPATH and SKYTROFA-if uptake stalls, reimbursement approval timelines slow, or competitors introduce better or lower-priced alternatives, both revenues and earnings could be substantially impacted in future years.
Elevated SG&A (selling, general, and administrative) costs and global commercial expansion remain high relative to revenues; if quarterly sequential growth moderates or cost discipline weakens, profit margins and cash flow sustainability may be threatened over the long term.
Risks surrounding payer dynamics and drug pricing pressures in the U.S. and international markets: increasing scrutiny, value-based reimbursement, and potential price cuts for rare disease biologics can erode pricing power and compress revenues and net margins.
Reliance on expansion or regulatory successes for future growth (e.g., TransCon CNP label expansion/combo approvals, YORVIPATH higher dose approval in the U.S.)-any delays, failed trials, or unfavorable label outcomes could weaken growth prospects, leading to volatility in future earnings.
Ongoing high R&D investment needs, coupled with increased competition from both established players (such as BioMarin for achondroplasia) and emerging biosimilars, could challenge portfolio differentiation, forcing greater spend to maintain market share and thus impacting both operating margins and net income over time.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $251.087 for Ascendis Pharma based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $306.97, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $202.53.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €2.2 billion, earnings will come to €826.6 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 19.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.4%.
Given the current share price of $200.02, the analyst price target of $251.09 is 20.3% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Pipeline Progress And Global Launches Will Expand Market Reach