Last Update 13 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 15%

ASND: Future Returns Will Depend On Hypoparathyroidism Franchise Durability And Safety

Analysts have raised their price target for Ascendis Pharma to approximately $222 from about $193, citing sustained confidence in Yorvipath's competitive positioning, growing endocrinologist adoption, and limited perceived risk from recent safety database signals and emerging rival data.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research continues to frame Ascendis Pharma as a core hypoparathyroidism franchise story, with a growing focus on how Yorvipath execution and emerging competition could affect the valuation. Several firms highlight that, despite near term volatility around safety signals and rival data releases, consensus remains that Yorvipath is well positioned as a differentiated, daily injectable therapy.

One key topic for investors is the recent patient death reported in the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System database. Bearish analysts have questioned whether this event could signal a broader safety concern for Yorvipath and pressure the multiple. However, more constructive voices note that the case involved a complex oncology background, multiple concomitant medications and sparse details, and therefore view it as unlikely to be drug related, limiting the impact on the long term thesis.

On the growth side, survey work among endocrinologists treating hypoparathyroidism suggests that Yorvipath uptake is trending higher into the back half of the year. This feedback supports the view that real world experience is tracking ahead of early expectations and that physicians see a clear clinical role for the drug. Analysts are watching upcoming earnings commentary closely for updates on payer coverage, patient discontinuation rates and any signals on broader label or geographic expansion. All of these factors could influence how quickly revenues scale toward current price targets.

Competitive dynamics also remain central to the Street debate. New Phase 2 data for once weekly canvuparatide in chronic hypoparathyroidism showed efficacy broadly comparable to Yorvipath on headline responder rates, with some sell side commentary highlighting the use of a more stringent calcium utilization bar. At the same time, other research points to less compelling statistical strength, uncertainty around the optimal Phase 3 dose and a potentially less favorable safety profile at higher doses, including higher rates of hypercalcemia. For now, the prevailing view is that Yorvipath retains a strong clinical and commercial lead, but competitive overhang is likely to persist as canvuparatide advances.

Despite this, valuation remains sensitive to shifts in perception around the durability of Yorvipath growth and the credibility of emerging rivals. Price targets across the Street have moved higher in response to stronger than expected adoption trends and confidence in the long term opportunity. There is also growing dispersion in assumptions around peak penetration, pricing power and the timing of potential competitive pressure.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts caution that heightened attention to isolated adverse events, even if ultimately deemed unlikely to be drug related, can weigh on sentiment and compress valuation multiples until longer term safety data further de risks the story.
Some bears argue that increasing enthusiasm embedded in higher price targets assumes a smooth commercialization trajectory for Yorvipath, leaving limited cushion for any slowdown in new patient starts, higher than expected discontinuations or delays in payer coverage improvements.
Concerns persist that once weekly competitors, even with currently mixed data, could eventually pressure pricing and market share, challenging bullish assumptions around the duration of peak revenues and justifying more conservative growth forecasts.
Bearish analysts also highlight execution risk around pipeline advancement and broader portfolio diversification, noting that heavy dependence on Yorvipath heightens the impact of any regulatory, safety or competitive setbacks on the company wide valuation.

What's in the News

The FDA classified Ascendis Pharma's recent TransCon CNP post marketing submission as a major amendment, which extended the U.S. PDUFA action date for achondroplasia to February 28, 2026 (company announcement).
Pivotal Week 52 results from the Phase 3 ApproaCH trial of once weekly TransCon CNP in children with achondroplasia were published in JAMA Pediatrics and showed significantly higher growth velocity, improved body proportionality and limb alignment, and placebo like safety (company announcement).
A pooled three year analysis from the PaTH Forward and PaTHway trials showed sustained, clinically meaningful improvements in renal function and high independence from conventional therapy in adults with hypoparathyroidism who were treated with TransCon PTH, with no new safety signals (company announcement).
Ascendis launched broader dosing ranges of SKYTROFA (TransCon hGH) in the United States for adults with growth hormone deficiency, which expanded its commercial endocrine portfolio (company announcement).
The company submitted a Marketing Authorisation Application to the European Medicines Agency for TransCon CNP as a treatment for children with achondroplasia, which advanced its regulatory strategy beyond the United States (company announcement).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate has risen meaningfully to approximately $222 from about $193, reflecting increased confidence in the long term cash flow outlook.
Discount Rate has edged higher to about 6.8 percent from roughly 6.4 percent, implying a modestly higher perceived risk profile or cost of capital.
Revenue Growth has been revised down notably to around 43 percent from roughly 64 percent, indicating more conservative assumptions for top line expansion.
Net Profit Margin has declined slightly to about 17.6 percent from roughly 18.7 percent, signaling a modestly lower long run profitability outlook.
Future P/E has eased marginally to roughly 44.8x from about 45.9x, suggesting a small reduction in the multiple investors may be willing to pay for forward earnings.

Heavy dependence on flagship products and pricing pressures could restrict revenue growth and increase vulnerability to competition and regulatory changes.
High R&D spending and ambitious pipeline expansion may delay profitability while rising competitive and regulatory risks threaten future market share and margins.
Elevated spending, narrow product focus, and reimbursement risks threaten profitability and restrict revenue potential amid fierce competition and external pricing pressures.

Catalysts

About Ascendis Pharma

Operates as a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on developing TransCon-based therapies for unmet medical needs in Denmark, rest of Europe, North America, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Although Ascendis Pharma is benefitting from the increasing prevalence of chronic endocrine and rare diseases and the growing global demand for long-acting, patient-friendly therapies, continued pricing and reimbursement pressures in the US and Europe could limit the company's ability to maintain premium pricing, ultimately narrowing revenue growth and compressing future net margins.
While the successful launch and rapid uptake of YORVIPATH and the robust market positioning of SKYTROFA signal a strong platform for future double-digit revenue expansion, the heavy reliance on these flagship products elevates revenue concentration risk; setbacks, slower-than-expected label expansions, or new competition in core indications could sharply curtail earnings growth and reduce financial resilience.
Despite operational leverage opportunities stemming from a maturing commercial infrastructure and expanding global scale, persistent high R&D expenditures, paired with ambitious global launches and broad pipeline expansion, risk delaying sustainable profitability and could continue to dampen net margins over the medium term.
Although secular trends, such as growing investment in rare disease research and generally favorable regulatory pathways for orphan drugs, are supportive of innovation-led companies, there is a risk that increasing industry-wide regulatory scrutiny and extended approval timelines could slow the commercialization of pipeline programs, negatively impacting near-future revenues and delaying earnings inflection points.
While advancements in genomics and personalized medicine should benefit differentiated biopharma platforms like TransCon, intensifying competition from big pharma and emerging entrants utilizing alternative modalities may erode future market share and create lasting pricing pressures, putting both top-line revenue growth and long-term operating leverage at risk.

Ascendis Pharma Earnings and Revenue Growth

Ascendis Pharma Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

This narrative explores a more pessimistic perspective on Ascendis Pharma compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bearish cohort of analysts.
The bearish analysts are assuming Ascendis Pharma's revenue will grow by 63.8% annually over the next 3 years.
The bearish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -92.7% today to 18.7% in 3 years time.
The bearish analysts expect earnings to reach €303.2 million (and earnings per share of €4.7) by about July 2028, up from €-341.7 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bearish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 45.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from -25.7x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 16.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 5.27% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.42%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Ascendis Pharma Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Persistent high research and development spending and sharply increased selling, general, and administrative expenses driven by continued global commercial expansion threaten to delay the company's path to sustained profitability, thereby compressing net margins and risking future earnings growth.
Ongoing uncertainty regarding payer and reimbursement dynamics, particularly in ex-US markets where full reimbursement is still pending, exposes Ascendis to potential delays or limitations in market access which could restrict expected revenue growth across geographies.
Heavy reliance on a narrow product portfolio-primarily YORVIPATH and SKYTROFA-means that any regulatory setbacks, market access challenges, or clinical trial failures for these flagship therapies would materially damage future top-line revenue and investor confidence.
Heightened competition from rival companies pursuing alternative treatment modalities in targeted disease areas, such as BridgeBio and MBX, carries risk that Ascendis' technologies will lose market share or face pricing pressure, reducing both projected revenue and eventual profitability.
Secular pressures including potential drug price controls, increased healthcare cost containment, and payer resistance to premium pricing for specialty drugs may collectively erode Ascendis Pharma's long-term pricing power, ultimately impacting future net revenues and operating margins.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The assumed bearish price target for Ascendis Pharma is $193.36, which represents the lowest price target estimate amongst analysts. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of Ascendis Pharma's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the more bearish end of the spectrum.
However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $306.23, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $193.36.
In order for you to agree with the bearish analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €1.6 billion, earnings will come to €303.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 45.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.4%.
Given the current share price of $170.14, the bearish analyst price target of $193.36 is 12.0% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystLowTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystLowTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystLowTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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