Last Update 03 Jun 26

HELE: 2027 Guidance And Project Pegasus Risks Will Shape Future Earnings

Narrative Update: Helen of Troy Analyst Price Target Shift

Helen of Troy's blended analyst price target has moved higher by about $9, as analysts highlight updated views on valuation and risk, reflected in a slightly lower discount rate and modestly adjusted future P/E assumptions.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on Helen of Troy reflects both optimism and caution, with price targets moving in both directions over the past few updates. For you as an investor, the key takeaway is that analysts are actively recalibrating how they think about the stock's risk and valuation, rather than settling on a single clear story.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts raising price targets by about $9 and $5 are signaling increased confidence in how current valuation lines up with their earnings and P/E assumptions.
These upward revisions are tied to a slightly lower discount rate and adjusted future P/E views, which suggests they see the risk profile as somewhat less demanding than before.
The positive target changes point to an opinion that the company can execute well enough for its earnings outlook to justify a higher central valuation range.
For investors, the cluster of upward revisions suggests a group of analysts views the recent setup as more attractive on a risk reward basis compared with prior models.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts have also cut price targets by about $6 and $4, which signals concern that earlier assumptions on earnings or P/E multiples may have been too optimistic.
These target trims indicate caution around execution, including the risk that future performance may not fully match prior expectations baked into earlier models.
Lowered targets highlight that some analysts see less upside at prior valuation levels and are building in more conservative assumptions on what investors may be willing to pay for the stock.
For you, this mix of target increases and decreases underlines that there is still active debate around the balance between potential growth, execution risk and the price currently implied by the market.

What's in the News

A class action lawsuit was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas alleging violations of federal securities laws by Helen of Troy and certain current and former senior executives. The suit covers investors who acquired common stock between April 24, 2024 and October 8, 2025, and is captioned City of Atlanta General Employees’ Pension Plan v. Helen of Troy Limited, No. 26-cv-01528 (W.D. Tex.), source: Bernstein Litowitz Berger & Grossmann LLP.
Allegations in the complaint focus on statements about Project Pegasus, including the new Tennessee distribution center, and whether disclosures around execution challenges, delayed savings, and the impact on revenue growth and earnings per share appropriately reflected the company’s situation.
Key events cited in the lawsuit include the July 9, 2024 announcement of fiscal 2025 first quarter results and reduced full year revenue outlook; the May 2, 2025 departure of CEO Noel Geoffroy; and the July 10, 2025 disclosure of an 11% year over year net sales decline for fiscal 2026 first quarter, a nearly 60% decline in adjusted earnings per share, and a US$414.4m goodwill impairment, with commentary from interim CEO and CFO Brian Grass that the company had become too complicated and lost focus.
Helen of Troy issued fiscal 2027 guidance, expecting consolidated net sales revenue in the range of US$1.751b to US$1.822b, GAAP diluted EPS in the range of US$3.57 to US$4.18, and GAAP net income between US$83m and US$97m.
Revlon Hair Tools, part of Helen of Troy’s portfolio, announced the Revlon VersaStyler, a three mode hair tool combining blow dry, volumizer, and heated barrel functions in a single product, priced at US$99.99 and available on Walmart.com.

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: $29.33 is unchanged, indicating the central valuation estimate stays the same in the updated model.
Discount Rate: has fallen slightly from 12.28% to 11.94%, signaling a modestly lower required return in the analyst assumptions.
Revenue Growth: remains effectively steady at about 1.71%, with only a very small numerical adjustment that does not change the overall growth assumption.
Net Profit Margin: remains effectively steady at about 9.56%, with rounding differences that leave the margin view essentially unchanged.
Future P/E: has edged down slightly from 5.55x to 5.50x, pointing to a small reduction in the multiple applied to projected earnings.

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Key Takeaways

Supply chain diversification and production shifts aim to stabilize costs and enhance net margins by mitigating tariff impacts.
Brand acquisitions and innovative product launches are poised to drive revenue growth and boost market share.
Reliance on volatile macroeconomic factors and supply chain disruptions, alongside rising operational costs, create significant uncertainty impacting margins and future earnings projections.

Catalysts

About Helen of Troy

Provides various consumer products in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Helen of Troy's ongoing supply chain diversification efforts, particularly moving production out of China, are expected to mitigate tariff impacts and help stabilize costs, which should positively affect net margins.
The company's focus on re-evaluated SKU prioritization and promotional pricing plans, in partnership with retailers, aims to enhance profitability by emphasizing high-margin, high-demand products, potentially improving net margins.
International market expansion, particularly in non-tariff regions, offers growth opportunities that are anticipated to boost revenue as these markets are not subjected to current tariff pressures.
Helen of Troy's Project Pegasus initiative has been successful in increasing operational efficiency, as seen from the 60 basis point increase in gross margin, creating headroom for further earnings growth as cost reductions continue.
The acquisition and expansion of brands like Olive and June, along with their innovative new product launches such as the Olive and June Gel Mani System and OXO's new Twist and Stack containers, provide potential for revenue growth and market share gains.

Helen of Troy Earnings and Revenue Growth

Helen of Troy Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Helen of Troy's revenue will grow by 1.7% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -50.3% today to 9.6% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $179.7 million (and earnings per share of $7.74) by about June 2029, up from -$899.0 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bullish ones expecting earnings as high as $299.9 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 5.5x on those 2029 earnings, up from -0.7x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Consumer Durables industry at 12.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.32% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 11.94%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Reliance on a volatile macroeconomic environment with changes in global trade policy and tariffs creates significant uncertainty, potentially impacting revenue and net margins.
The inability to provide fiscal '26 guidance and stepping back from long-term growth algorithms indicates uncertainty in future earnings.
Ongoing supply chain disruptions, particularly the heavy reliance on China, may necessitate cost-intensive diversification efforts that could affect net margins.
Increased operational costs related to tariffs, inventory management, and supplier diversification could strain the company's budget, impacting net margins.
A deteriorating consumer confidence due to economic uncertainties and inflationary pressures may decrease consumer spending on discretionary items, affecting revenue.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $29.33 for Helen of Troy based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $40.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $23.0.
In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $1.9 billion, earnings will come to $179.7 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 5.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 11.9%.
Given the current share price of $26.73, the analyst price target of $29.33 is 8.9% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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