分析記事 • Dec 18

Slammed 61% Farfetch Limited (NYSE:FTCH) Screens Well Here But There Might Be A Catch

The Farfetch Limited ( NYSE:FTCH ) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 61...

Seeking Alpha • Nov 30

Farfetch: The Long Road Back To Regaining Credibility

Summary Luxury fashion marketplace Farfetch saw a 53.7% decline in stock price, hitting all-time lows yesterday after the company withheld results and withdrew its guidance. It's disappointing but not surprising, going by its weak recent performance compared to forecasts and history of downgrading its outlook well into the year. If it weren't for the company's exceptionally bullish forecasts, it could have avoided the stock price volatility. But even if it's more realistic now, it would take time for FTCH to regain credibility. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Nov 22

Farfetch Q3 Preview: Faces Debt Dilemma

Summary Farfetch grapples with a heavily leveraged balance sheet, marked by increasing debt and limited financial flexibility. The stock has already dropped over 60% since the previous sell rating, but investors should not double down. The company's sinking stock price hinders its ability to raise capital by diluting shares, exacerbating its financial predicament. To cope with financial woes, Farfetch slashes around 800 jobs, highlighting operational difficulties. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Oct 20

Farfetch: High Risk-Reward, But A Good Set-Up To Benefit From January Effect Rebound

Summary Farfetch delivered poor Q2 earnings, with weak luxury spending in China and the U.S. impacting its performance. Despite the challenges, Farfetch is cutting costs and projecting positive adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow for the year. Trading at a huge discount to other marketplace businesses, the company could see a nice January Effect rally next year. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Sep 18

Farfetch: Further Downgrades Possible

Summary Farfetch's stock price has dropped by 62.4% since July, which actually makes its multiples quite attractive now. But there are good reasons why investors are staying away from it. Continued weakness in China and a downgraded outlook are concerning. Further, the company has a history of downgrading its projections, raising doubts about its credibility and ability to meet future growth targets. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

分析記事 • Aug 27

Positive Sentiment Still Eludes Farfetch Limited (NYSE:FTCH) Following 47% Share Price Slump

Farfetch Limited ( NYSE:FTCH ) shares have had a horrible month, losing 47% after a relatively good period beforehand...

Seeking Alpha • Aug 14

Farfetch Earnings Preview: High Fashion, Higher Investor Expectation (Downgrade)

Summary I downwards revise my rating of Farfetch Limited from neutral to sell due to doubts about its stock being undervalued. Farfetch's revenue growth rates are not inspiring optimism, especially given the weak macro environment in China and Europe. I believe that Farfetch's valuation is not great, with an unappetizing balance sheet and doubts about its ability to generate positive free cash flow. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Jul 30

Farfetch: With Demand Picking Back Up And Comps Easing, Time To Go Long

Summary Farfetch has faced challenges, including softer demand from China, but is now experiencing a rebound rally. The company's niche in the luxury space and mix of platform and first-party businesses contribute to its long-term growth potential. Farfetch's GMV and revenue are showing growth, and upcoming partnerships and easier comps are expected to fuel further growth. The company's adjusted EBITDA is also expected to swing positive this year, in part driven by less reliance on promotions. Upgrading Farfetch to bullish, from a prior neutral view, as the company gets back on its feet with top and bottom line performance. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Jun 28

Farfetch: The Reversal Is Likely To Gather Pace

Summary Farfetch Limited's stock has rebounded this year, rising 28% aided by strong first-quarter earnings, China's recovery, and the improving market sentiment toward growth stocks. Farfetch's two most important markets - the U.S. and China - are well-positioned to see explosive growth in online luxury retail in the long run. Although it is too early to predict long-term competitive advantages, the company has done a commendable job of differentiating itself from the competition. I have made some changes to my cash flow based valuation model for Farfetch to arrive at an updated intrinsic value estimate. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

分析記事 • May 30

Is Farfetch (NYSE:FTCH) Weighed On By Its Debt Load?

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...

Seeking Alpha • May 23

Farfetch: Don't Chase

Summary Cathie Wood's liquidated her positions in Q1. In a dramatic turn, Farfetch stock surged by 30% following the Q1 earnings release. The company used a variety of business models and operating strategies. For investors, this makes valuation work more difficult. We find the risk-reward profile of Farfetch to be balanced with catalysts that could impact the stock. However, its cash burn rate remained high. We think there are still downsides in H1. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Feb 22

Farfetch Q4 2022 Earnings Preview

Farfetch (NYSE:FTCH) is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results on Thursday, February 23rd, after market close. The consensus EPS Estimate is -$0.25 and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $626.96M (-5.9% Y/Y). Over the last 2 years, FTCH has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 50% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 2 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 5 upward revisions and 3 downward.

分析記事 • Feb 13

Is There An Opportunity With Farfetch Limited's (NYSE:FTCH) 48% Undervaluation?

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Farfetch Limited ( NYSE:FTCH ) by projecting its...

Seeking Alpha • Feb 07

Farfetch: Luxury Market Is Hot, What About Farfetch

Summary Farfetch had a poor Investors Day in December. Up to now, the stock hasn't recovered. That being said, Farfetch's business proposition is clearly compelling. But the main question here is how long until Farfetch becomes meaningfully profitable? And that's where the battleground finds itself.

分析記事 • Jan 13

Farfetch (NYSE:FTCH) Is Carrying A Fair Bit Of Debt

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's...

Seeking Alpha • Dec 06

Farfetch: The Market Is Done With Unprofitability

Summary Shares of Farfetch Limited dropped 35% following the company's Analyst Day last Thursday. Amidst decelerating revenue growth, Farfetch's profitability seems very, very farfetched indeed. The read-through continues to be negative for growth companies with questionable paths to profitability. A Capital Markets Day that lost a lot of capital Shares of online luxury platform Farfetch Limited (FTCH) have suffered a 35% decline since the company held its Capital Markets Day on 12/1. At the event, Farfetch management laid out its plan for 2023 and 2025. For FY23, GMV is expected to increase 20-22% YoY to $4.9 billion, driven by an 8-10% growth of the underlying business as well as a ~$500 million contribution from signed partnerships. However, adj. EBITDA margin is guided to 1-3%. While the margin outlook represents an improvement from negative 3-5% in 2022, investors were unimpressed. Taking a look at Farfetch's earnings history, we can quickly observe that: (1) the business can't quite achieve profitability even on an adj. EBITDA basis; and (2) adj. EBITDA margin barely reached positive territory during the pandemic, when revenue jumped 64% in 2020 and 35% in 2021. Company data Unlike other SaaS (software as a service) companies where stock-based compensation ("SBC") easily makes up 20% of revenue, the largest component of Farfetch's adj. EBITDA is the change in the fair values of numerous financial instruments on the balance sheet. In 2020, the negative adj. EBITDA margin of 3.2% was a result of adding back a $2.6 million loss from fair value remeasurements of put/call options and embedded derivatives within convertible notes. Even though Farfetch did have a profitable year in 2021 with a net income of $1.47 billion, it was driven by a $1.64 billion gain from embedded derivatives (within convertible notes), a $156 million gain from Chalhoub put option, and a $246 million gain from Alibaba (BABA) and Richemont (CFRHF) put options. If I never knew what Farfetch does in the first place, I'd have easily mistaken the fashion company for a derivatives trading house. Seeking Alpha Looking past all the non-core financial items, we can again see that the idea of profitability seems incredibly farfetched given Farfetch has never been able to deliver a positive operating margin and given total SG&A has a strong tendency of surpassing gross profit. With revenue growth decelerating from +90% YoY in 1Q20 to less than 2% in 3Q22, it's difficult to imagine how Farfetch will ever achieve positive operating income. Considering EBIT has never reached positive territory since 2015 (in fact very negative), there's clearly something wrong with the business model: it doesn't work. Could this be a turnaround story? Markets are forward-looking, so it's important to put yesterday's results aside and focus on what could happen for Farfetch tomorrow. Despite a very tough macro, Farfetch management was able to provide a 3-year outlook that many companies could not confidently discuss. Nevertheless, the 2025 GMV guidance of $10 billion (+32% 3-yr CAGR) was not good enough to convince investors, given adj. EBITDA margin was guided to just 10%. Unpacking the $10 billion GMV target, Marketplaces GMV is expected to be $3.8 billion as management sees an annual growth of 8-10%. Platform Solutions GMV is guided to $4.3 billion thanks to signed partnerships (e.g., Bergdorf Goodman, Ferragamo, and Yoox Net-A-Porter). Brand Platform GMV of $1.5 billion will become a less meaningful driver, with an annual growth of 5-10%. Lastly, Fulfillment revenue is expected to be $0.9 billion. While it's important to note that the FY25 GMV guidance assumes no GMV growth from new partnerships (e.g., Richemont) and no new deals for FPS (Farfetch Platform Solutions - the Shopify (SHOP) equivalent for luxury brands), investors appear to be focusing on the profitability side of the story vs. how much upside there is on the top-line. Though Marketplaces will account for a meaningful 38% of FY25 GMV, adj. EBITDA margin is guided to just 5% vs. Platform Solutions (43% of GMV) at 20% and Brand Platform (15% of GMV) at 20%. Profitability aside, I see the $10 billion GMV target as ambitious, with a recession being the base case for 2023 where luxury will not be immune to a downturn. What to do with Farfetch stock? Farfetch is a structurally unprofitable business that cannot deliver operating income even when demand skyrocketed during the pandemic. Now that Covid is behind us, it's even more difficult to believe that the company can achieve sustainable profitability when revenue growth has significantly decelerated. With an FY25 adj. EBITDA margin of 10% (which indicates a very minimal operating margin), markets now understand that the idea of generating operating profits just seems too farfetched.

Seeking Alpha • Nov 04

Farfetch: Not An Easy Recovery, But Risks Are Likely Priced In

Summary Shares of Farfetch have lost a whopping 75% of their value since the start of the year. GMV and revenue trends have continually eroded, due to both a decline in consumer purchasing as well as FX headwinds. New COVID breakouts in China, the world's largest luxury market, are another potential risk in the back half of the year. Still, Farfetch has several things backing it, including its ability to maintain margins plus a relatively large cash reserve. By now, it has become relatively clear that the world is tilting toward some form of a recession: the only question is how deep it will be. Discretionary spending categories, especially on things like luxury goods, have already started to see sharp quarter-over-quarter declines, and many of the hottest consumer internet/e-commerce stocks during the pandemic have become huge eyesores in our portfolios. Farfetch (FTCH) is one clear example here. This luxury e-commerce company has lost a whopping 75% of its value since the start of the year, as the company continues to issue a dollop of bad news with each passing quarterly earnings release. The company next reports earnings in mid-November, and to say the least, confidence in the stock is quite low. Data by YCharts Despite the recent downtrends in the stock, as well as the near certainty that the last two quarters of FY22 will likely prove to be quite dismal for Farfetch, I think most of the risks are now well-known and priced into the stock, and I am shifting my rating on Farfetch to neutral. I'm simply of the mind that investors will soon tire of indiscriminately selling off e-commerce stocks, and with both valuations and fundamental expectations for these stocks sitting at multi-year lows, I think companies like Farfetch have the potential to rebound on the slightest whiff of good news. Of course, there are major red flags here and risks to consider: China may be front-running the world's recession. Consumer confidence is down in the world's largest economy (which is an outsized buyer of luxury goods, needless to say), and renewed COVID resurgences won't be friendly to Farfetch either. Major FX headwinds. A good chunk of Farfetch's revenue is international, which leads to major FX translation losses on a dollar basis. How long will the luxury category take to recover? If a global economic recession is protracted, it may take the luxury category a long time to rebound. If anything, post-pandemic trends have shifted toward more casual and relaxed attire, and a more penny-pinched global population may have lower proclivity to spend on unneeded luxuries. That being said, I don't think it's all bad for Farfetch; in particular, I think investors should consider a few "saving graces": Farfetch is quite well capitalized for a turndown. The company has $1.47 billion of cash on its most recent books, and even after we take out $515 million of debt, it still has nearly $1 billion of net cash left. That's plenty of financial flexibility to withstand a downturn, especially as the company isn't printing huge losses (its adjusted EBITDA margin is roughly flat). Gross margins are holding up. Due to the fact that Farfetch has reduced its reliance on demand generation and promotional activity, the company has managed to hold up its gross margin profile - even in this inflationary environment. The bottom line on Farfetch: this isn't my first choice of investment in a very choppy market. I'd rather buy into an enterprise software company that is similarly beaten down but has contractual recurring revenue. At the same time, considering Farfetch's considerable net cash position (which is roughly a third of its current market value), its proven niche in the luxury e-commerce market which even Amazon (AMZN) has failed to penetrate, and a relatively healthy margin/EBITDA profile, I'd put this one on a watchlist. Q2 download Let's now briefly go through the highlights of Farfetch's most recent quarter. Though investors picked up very well to the risks in the top line, there are also some positive callouts worth mentioning. The Q2 earnings summary is shown below: Farfetch Q2 key metrics (Farfetch Q2 earnings presentation) As shown above, Farfetch's GMV - the most closely-watched metric for the company, as is the same for every other e-commerce business - grew at a measly 1% y/y pace, decelerating slightly over Q1's 2% y/y growth rate. This is driven by both a reduction in consumer spending as well as heavy FX impacts. On a constant-currency basis, the company would have seen stronger 8% y/y growth. The company's third-party digital platform saw as-reported growth decline, while the company's own brands saw rapid 47% y/y growth, due to strong customer reception of the company's Off White and Palm Angel brands. Growth here was also partially driven by a catch-up and recovery from a Q1 warehouse issue. In-store revenue also grew 39% y/y.

分析記事 • Nov 02

An Intrinsic Calculation For Farfetch Limited (NYSE:FTCH) Suggests It's 47% Undervalued

How far off is Farfetch Limited ( NYSE:FTCH ) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll...

Seeking Alpha • Oct 08

Farfetch: Short-Term Slowdown

Summary Online luxury goods platform Farfetch rose by 20% last week. Can it sustain the increase in a challenging macroeconomic environment? Luxury goods aren't immune to recessions, though they bounce back fast and the e-commerce market holds promise too, which could work well for Farfetch in the medium-term. For now, however, its revenue growth is slowing down, and the outlook is muted. It's best to hold the stock. Farfetch (FTCH), the London-based digital platform specialising in luxury fashion, saw a huge 20% rise in price in the past week. This is a significant rise, even considering the recent gains in stock markets. It’s even more impressive in the context of its 75% drop in price in 2022 so far. However, with the global macro economy clouded with fears of recession and high inflation eating into consumers’ discretionary spending, this article looks at whether the Farfetch price can continue to rise or if this is just a flash in the pan. Big themes: Luxury goods in recessions and e-commerce From a thematic perspective, there are two aspects to consider in analysing the company: 1. Luxury goods’ sensitivity to recessions: There are two competing theories. One posits that as discretionary consumer spends, luxury purchases can slow down during recessions. The other theory says that luxury spending is actually recession-proof since it’s driven by the ultra-wealthy, who are insulated from fluctuations in the economy. Since Farfetch focuses on luxury products, is its demand expected to slow down if there’s a recession soon? 2. E-commerce growth: Digital sales grew fast during the pandemic. But was that a short-term phenomenon, or have the prospects for the sector actually bettered for good? Again, this is significant for Farfetch as predominantly a digital platform, though it does have some in-store presence as well. Luxury goods aren’t recession-proof To assess the fate of the luxury sector, the performance of two companies in the recession led by the financial crisis in 2008 was analysed, which is the closest it gets to the current slowdown. The first is LVMH, the biggest luxury company and Burberry, which like Farfetch is London based. Both saw an impact on performance because of the event. Revenues were down for both. LVMH saw a huge drop in net profits, and Burberry swung into losses. The companies also acknowledge weakening financials because of a poor economy in their result statements from the time. However, it’s interesting to note that by 2010, both show a sharp pickup in earnings, suggesting the sector’s resilience. Sources: LVMH financial results, Burberry's financial results, Author's Estimates Farfetch’s demand prospects This gives some hope for Farfetch, whose demand has clearly been impacted recently. Its revenue grew by 10.7% year on year (YoY) in the April-June, 2022 quarter (Q2 2022). While this is an improvement from the 6.1% rise seen in Q1, it’s still slower than the almost 35% rise seen in 2021. It mentions macro events in China and the ceasing of operations in Russia, its second and third-biggest markets respectively, as impacting its performance. Hearteningly, Americas remain strong, which is significant since the US is its top market. On the whole, there is room for optimism as far as its future revenue potential is concerned, especially as projections for the US and recovery in China are strong (see chart below). Source: McKinsey and Company E-commerce’s prospects narrow down It could also be buoyed to some extent by the prospects for apparel e-commerce. According to an IMF study, the spurt in digital sales seen during the pandemic hasn’t persisted on the whole. Digital spending as a proportion of total sales has dropped to 12.2% in 2021 as opposed to 14.9% during the pandemic. It does however say that for apparel, among other sectors, the move to online shopping does appear most long-lasting. BCG also forecasts that 20% of luxury sales by 2025 will be digital as against 12% today. This offers some promise for Farfetch in the medium term, which is essentially a digital platform. Managing inflation and rising interest rates Beyond demand recovery, it’s essential to consider how well Farfetch is coping with inflationary pressures and rising interest rates. As far as price rise is concerned, it’s doing well with a gross margin of 46.2%, which is both a slight improvement over Q1 2022 and the full-year 2021. Its net margins at 12.2% are also fine in the latest quarter, though the company has managed to make net profits only because of re-measurement gains. On an operating basis, it’s still loss-making. Still, there’s some comfort to be found from the fact that its operating expenses' growth has actually slowed down from the same time last year (see chart below). Source: Seeking Alpha The question of valuation Farfetch’s market valuations in terms of its price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) make it a cheap stock to buy nevertheless at 2.05x compared to 12.09x for the consumer discretionary segment as a whole. Somewhat related stocks like Etsy (ETSY) and Pinterest (PINS) are valued much higher. Going by the nature of its earnings, though, I'd de-emphasise this indicator for now.

分析記事 • Sep 15

Is Farfetch (NYSE:FTCH) Using Debt In A Risky Way?

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...

Seeking Alpha • Aug 24

Farfetch Q2 2022 Earnings Preview

Farfetch (NYSE:FTCH) is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings results on Thursday, August 25th, after market close. The consensus EPS Estimate is -$0.25 (-47.1% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $566.53M (+8.3% Y/Y). Over the last 2 years, FTCH has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 63% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 6 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 11 downward.

Seeking Alpha • Jul 27

Farfetch jumps on takeover speculation

Farfetch (NYSE:FTCH) rose 3.7% on a report that the company is speculated to be a takeover target. Farfetch (FTCH) is speculated to have attracted takeover interest, according to a Betaville report. Some recent reports have suggested that luxury goods maker Richemont (OTCPK:CFRHF) has been considering a deal to combine its Yoox Net-a-Porter (OTC:YXOXF) division with Farfetch (FTCH). It appears now the at an unidentified buyer is considering buying Farfetch (FTCH), according to Betaville, which cited people following the matter. Developing story ...

Seeking Alpha • Jul 17

Farfetch: Luxury Fashion Is Likely In Trouble

Farfetch is a leading luxury marketplace, sourcing products from around the world. Shares have moved widely, gaining and losing high double digits. Macroeconomic developments suggest luxuries will struggle in the coming months. Farfetch's financials are underwhelming, and we struggle to see their route to profitability. Investment Thesis: Farfetch's investors have been on a wild ride in the last few years, with shares up 558% and down 89% within 2 years. The share price has bottomed somewhat after a recent fall (and downgrade) and so now feels like a good time to assess the attractiveness of the business. Farfetch has innovated the way people buy luxuries in the modern day and has partnerships with several leading brands and marketplaces, who see cooperation as a means of modernizing their operations. Everything is in place for success, but unfortunately, we see tough times ahead. Macro conditions are worsening and Farfetch's financials look problematic. This paper seeks to assess the attractiveness of Farfetch and consider what we believe the next 24 months will look like. Company Description: Farfetch (FTCH) is a British online fashion marketplace, stocking a host of luxury fashion brands which it sells in over 190 countries. The platform currently has over 3.5M active consumers, 3,400 brands and 370K SKUs. Historically, luxury fashion has been a market which focused on brick-and-mortar. There are multiple reasons for this, including the most obvious: that if a consumer is going to spend a large amount of money, they probably want to see and touch the item. Fashion brands also use this time in-store to provide an exceptional experience, to add to the attraction and justification of their prices. Farfetch has been innovative in this sense, bringing together lots of local sellers globally to market their goods online. Farfetch has expanded beyond being just a 3rd party intermediary, purchasing a portfolio of brands called the New Guards Group. Brands within the group include, Off-White and Palm Angels. This diversifies Farfetch's revenue streams, while also allowing the marketplace to heavily promote and sell the NGG brands. Farfetch's share price had a meteoric rise between 2020 and its ATH, gaining 558%. Since then, however, it has fallen 89%. The rise coincided with the general market rally we experienced post COVID-19, with demand remaining robust thanks to income support and lockdown-induced reduction in social spending. Data by YCharts The Luxury Fashion Industry: The luxury fashion industry is valued at over $1.1TN and is expected to grow at mid-to-low double digits for the next 5 years. Bain believes that around 1/3 of luxury purchases will be digital by 2025. A part of this is the result of COVID-19, with businesses forced to bolster their online offering and begin marketing for online sales. Online sales rose 50% and 27% in 2020 and 2021, respectively. It could be argued however that COVID merely accelerated a shift in consumer spending habits. This goes beyond luxury and stems from the overarching shift from brick-and-mortar to online. Consumers enjoy the ease of shopping from their own home and being able to consider all of their potential options, rather than having to go to multiple stores. This is where Farfetch comes in, with all the brands on their platform and the ease of ordering and returning, they have been able to grow aggressively. With online sales expected to make up a greater percentage of total sales, the scope for growth in the market is certainly healthy. The biggest drawback is that people cannot try on and see the item before purchasing. Given the price point, it does mean that online sales will not completely cannibalize the market. Farfetch's counterpoint is that it finds the best prices and so has a good chance of beating an individual's local vendor. A risk Farfetch faces is that brands will take their products off the marketplace and go direct to consumers. We have seen this with Nike (NKE) dropping Foot locker (FL) and LVMH not allowing online sales of its products. Farfetch has taken steps to mitigate this, partnering closely with large conglomerates. Kering (OTCPK:PPRUF) and Richemont (OTCPK:CFRHF) have both taken ownership stakes in Farfetch and have their brands heavily promoted on the marketplace. This is a win-win for both parties. Farfetch gets some of the most popular brands in the world on their platform, specifically Balenciaga and Gucci, which rank No.1 and 2 on Lyst's hottest luxury brands index. These brands alone will bring significant traffic to the marketplace. In exchange, Richemont and Kering can reach their target demographic, younger consumers, without having to build a new platform themselves and expend resources attracting clicks. YNAP, Richemont's attempt at replicating Farfetch, has struggled in recent years. Deloitte's research into this space has found the younger audience to be a key target for businesses in the medium term, and attribute their use of Farfetch as a key source of their success. The fashion industry was positioned perfectly for a business like Farfetch to come in and disrupt it, many of the large brands are now responding but it is likely too late. Naturally, this has left many choosing to partner with them, rather than attempting to compete. China: China's share of luxury goods is a staggering 21%, according to Bain. As a result of this, brands have focused significant resources into marketing in China. Farfetch again is positioned perfectly here as they have managed to increase their popularity by hosting a large number of brands. Farfetch gives many brands who do not have the scale to "go it alone" in China the ability to sell through their platform, while also leveraging the popularity of the larger brands. Not only this but Farfetch has secured the Chinese trifecta to propel its growth in China. Alibaba (BABA), JD.com (JD) and Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) have all announced investments in, and strategic partnerships with, Farfetch, to assist the business with its growth in China (JD partnership has come to an end, being replaced by Alibaba, although some ownership remains). They know the thirst Chinese people have for western goods and so will happily exchange their expertise for a cut of every transaction. These businesses wrote the playbook on growth in the Chinese e-commerce space and will allow Farfetch to penetrate into the market and bridge the gap between locals in China and western goods. This being said, Chinese growth is looking shaky. Recent lockdowns have weakened short-term demand and Xi's common prosperity speech hinted at a move away from Chinese consumption of western luxuries. Regardless, it is currently too early to tell, but relying purely on China would be a miscalculation. Macro Headwinds: Much has been made of the current economic conditions but the reality is, the future is still uncertain. Many are expecting a recession to come later this year, if not in 2024. This is highly problematic for Farfetch, as luxury goods are as the name suggests, a luxury. During recessionary times, people lose their jobs, wealth decreases and generally discretionary income falls. As a result of this, there is the risk that the coming 24 months could be incredibly difficult for Farfetch, with a reduction in revenue growth. A layer of complexity here is the inflation, this is already deteriorating people's discretionary income, with a cost of living crisis hitting many western economies. This means that the problems for Farfetch have likely already begun and the coming period will only be worse. We note that Farfetch missed earnings for the first time in over a year, while attempting to reset forward guidance. Therefore, the coming 24 months could be the hardest in Farfetch's history, with no real ability to mitigate or offset the impact of weakening demand. Financials: In the first quarter of 2022, Farfetch posted a slight uptick in Gross Merchandise Value ("GMV") across its marketplace and brand platforms, with a dip in gross profit margins. Farfetch attributes the weak growth to ceasing operations in Russia and macro events in China. These issues will not ease quickly and in the case of Russia, the demand may be lost for a long time. Farfetch's Q1 performance breakdown (Farfetch) Furthermore, our real concern is Farfetch's route to profitability. Currently, Farfetch's G&A expense are 100% of gross profits and demand generation expenses are 30%. These expenses have grown in lockstep with revenue as the below shows, showing little signs of scale efficiencies. G&A as a % of revenue (Farfetch) Demand generation expense as a % of revenue (Farfetch) The net impact of this is a negative operating margin of fluctuating between -40% and -20%. Farfetch's operating margin 2015-2021 (Tikr Terminal) Our expectation is for economic conditions to worsen, with Farfetch hit by falling demand and discretionary income falls. Given this, Farfetch will likely incur greater losses and move further from profitability. Margins may also decline, as Farfetch invests a greater amount in order to attract sales. Therefore, we must consider the liquidity of the business. Currently, debt to equity sits at 71%. Given Farfetch's negative EBITDA, the business is currently funding its c.$69M in interest payments through cash. With a cash balance of c.$1BN and $310M in cash outflows during the LTM (Source: Tikr Terminal), Farfetch will likely need to raise cash in the coming 24 months. With interest rates on the rise, there is no good choice for investors between debt or equity. Unfortunately, Farfetch's financials do not look good. The business is in a growth trap, with costs moving in line with revenue growth. If they cut costs, revenue will likely fall also. On the balance sheet side, the business will likely need additional financing in the near future, investors will need to pay for this in one way or another. M&A Upside: One way Farfetch could improve its financials is to conduct more profitable operations. We note that Farfetch acquired Violet Grey in January 2022, ahead of its launch of Farfetch beauty. Beauty is a high margin business, which has the potential to improve Farfetch's margins.

Seeking Alpha • Jun 29

Farfetch: Facing Strong Macro Headwinds And Competition

Farfetch, one of the biggest beneficiaries of the pandemic has seen its stock drop over 90% from its all-time high last year. The global luxury fashion company has a huge TAM and is benefiting from the tailwind of physical retail shifting online. However, the company is facing tough competition and is seeing multiple headwinds from the macro environment. Valuation is also not attractive compared to peers when growth and profitability are factored in. I rate the company as a sell.

分析記事 • Jun 17

Is Farfetch (NYSE:FTCH) Using Too Much Debt?

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...

Seeking Alpha • Jun 16

Farfetch: The Story Has Changed, This Will Be An Uphill Battle

Shares of Farfetch have crashed substantially this year, falling 75% year to date. Losses accelerated after a disappointing Q1 earnings release in late May, which showcased tremendous deceleration in revenue and GMV. The company blamed the loss of Russia sales plus a slowdown in China, and severely cut its guidance for the remainder of the year. A relatively large equity investment in Neiman Marcus also makes Farfetch tilt more toward traditional retail and away from e-commerce.

Seeking Alpha • May 30

Farfetch Q1 Earnings: Mixed Luxury Ecommerce Opportunity

Farfetch has seen its share price bounce higher after being demolished over the past year. There are valid reasons to be skeptical about Farfetch. For one, its liberal dilution of shareholders should put many investors off from getting involved here. Just because a stock has fallen in value, it doesn't automatically make it undervalued. All that being said, the business has had to navigate some impressive headwinds, and even then, it's still eking out some revenue growth. All considered I'm assigning a very tepid buy rating on FTCH stock.

Seeking Alpha • May 16

Farfetch Stock Could Be A Multi-Bagger

Luxury retailer Farfetch is down -69% from its IPO despite tripling revenue over that time frame. Management believes it can drive ~30% annual growth going forward. If Farfetch hits all its targets, the stock is a multi-bagger.

Seeking Alpha • May 05

Miller Value Partners - Farfetch: Exemplifying Opportunity

Farfetch operates a global luxury marketplace, but we are most excited about the prospects for Farfetch Platform Services. We expect FTCH to break out the financials of FPS in the next year or two. We think FTCH stock has a significant upside over a 5-year time horizon.

Seeking Alpha • Apr 03

Farfetch: Short Term Challenges, Multiple Long Term Positives

Systemic challenges have hit Farfetch's stock price. Underlying business still strong. Multiple long term positives to drive the business.

分析記事 • Mar 03

Health Check: How Prudently Does Farfetch (NYSE:FTCH) Use Debt?

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...

Seeking Alpha • Feb 27

Farfetch: The Recovery Is Here

Shares of Farfetch popped nearly 40% after posting very strong Q4 results. The company achieved breakeven adjusted EBITDA in FY21, which was a pleasant surprise to most investors. Take rates in the company's third-party marketplace are rising, as well as gross margins for the company's proprietary brands. Farfetch still trades at a very attractive ~2x forward revenue multiple for a company that is just getting back on its feet.

インタレスト・カバレッジ・レシオ	n/a
現金	n/a
エクイティ	n/a
負債合計	n/a
総資産	n/a

データ	最終更新日（UTC時間）
企業分析	2026/05/06 06:42
終値	2026/05/06 00:00
収益	2023/06/30
年間収益	2022/12/31

パッケージ	データ	タイムフレーム	米国ソース例
会社財務	10年	損益計算書キャッシュ・フロー計算書貸借対照表	SECフォーム10-K SECフォーム10-Q
アナリストのコンセンサス予想	+プラス3年	予想財務アナリストの目標株価	アナリストリサーチレポート Blue Matrix
市場価格	30年	株価配当、分割、措置	ICEマーケットデータ SECフォームS-1
所有権	10年	トップ株主インサイダー取引	SECフォーム4 SECフォーム13D
マネジメント	10年	リーダーシップ・チーム取締役会	SECフォーム10-K SECフォームDEF 14A
主な進展	10年	会社からのお知らせ	SECフォーム8-K

アナリスト	機関
Rocco Strauss	Arete Research Services LLP
Luca Solca	Bernstein
Antoine Belge	BNP Paribas

Farfetch バランスシートの健全性

財務の健全性 基準チェック /06

主要情報

財務の健全性に関する最新情報

Farfetch Files Form 15

Is Farfetch (NYSE:FTCH) Weighed On By Its Debt Load?

Farfetch (NYSE:FTCH) Is Carrying A Fair Bit Of Debt

Is Farfetch (NYSE:FTCH) Using Debt In A Risky Way?

Is Farfetch (NYSE:FTCH) Using Too Much Debt?

Health Check: How Prudently Does Farfetch (NYSE:FTCH) Use Debt?

Recent updates

Farfetch Files Form 15

Farfetch Limited Announces Executive Changes

Slammed 61% Farfetch Limited (NYSE:FTCH) Screens Well Here But There Might Be A Catch

Law Offices of Howard G. Smith Announces Securities Fraud Lawsuit Against Farfetch Limited

Farfetch Limited Announces Resignation of Michael Evans from the Board of Directors

Farfetch: The Long Road Back To Regaining Credibility

Farfetch Q3 Preview: Faces Debt Dilemma

Farfetch Limited to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 29, 2023

Price target decreased by 9.8% to US$5.64

Pomerantz Law Firm Announces the Filing of a Class Action Against Farfetch Limited and Certain Officers

Farfetch: High Risk-Reward, But A Good Set-Up To Benefit From January Effect Rebound

Farfetch Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 20, 2023

Farfetch: Further Downgrades Possible

Price target decreased by 7.2% to US$6.24

Positive Sentiment Still Eludes Farfetch Limited (NYSE:FTCH) Following 47% Share Price Slump

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14%

New major risk - Share price stability

Price target decreased by 15% to US$7.84

Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Farfetch Limited Provides Earnings Guidance for the Full Year 2023

Farfetch Earnings Preview: High Fashion, Higher Investor Expectation (Downgrade)

Farfetch Limited to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Aug 17, 2023

Farfetch Limited Announces Chief Financial Officer Changes

Farfetch: With Demand Picking Back Up And Comps Easing, Time To Go Long

New minor risk - Share price stability

Farfetch: The Reversal Is Likely To Gather Pace

Is Farfetch (NYSE:FTCH) Weighed On By Its Debt Load?

Farfetch: Don't Chase

First quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Chief Financial Officer notifies of intention to sell stock

Price target decreased by 11% to US$9.78

Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: US$0.93 (vs US$4.02 in FY 2021)

Farfetch Q4 2022 Earnings Preview

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 12%

Is There An Opportunity With Farfetch Limited's (NYSE:FTCH) 48% Undervaluation?

Farfetch Limited to Report Q4, 2022 Results on Feb 23, 2023

Farfetch: Luxury Market Is Hot, What About Farfetch

Founder notifies of intention to sell stock

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 20%

Farfetch Announces Changes to Leadership Team

Investor sentiment improved over the past week

Farfetch (NYSE:FTCH) Is Carrying A Fair Bit Of Debt

Consensus forecasts updated

Consensus forecasts updated

Group President notifies of intention to sell stock

Price target decreased to US$12.84

Farfetch: The Market Is Done With Unprofitability

Consensus EPS estimates have been downgraded.

Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

High number of new directors

Investor sentiment improved over the past week

Farfetch: Not An Easy Recovery, But Risks Are Likely Priced In

An Intrinsic Calculation For Farfetch Limited (NYSE:FTCH) Suggests It's 47% Undervalued

Farfetch: Short-Term Slowdown

Price target decreased to US$15.70

Is Farfetch (NYSE:FTCH) Using Debt In A Risky Way?

Consensus forecasts updated

Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week

Second quarter 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analyst expectations

Farfetch Q2 2022 Earnings Preview

Consensus forecasts updated

Investor sentiment improved over the past week

Consensus forecasts updated

Farfetch jumps on takeover speculation

Consensus forecasts updated

Farfetch: Luxury Fashion Is Likely In Trouble

Founder notifies of intention to sell stock

Consensus forecasts updated

Farfetch: Facing Strong Macro Headwinds And Competition

財務の健全性基準チェック /06