Amcor plcNYSE:AMCR 株式レポート

Key Takeaways Strategic acquisitions, portfolio optimization, and sustainability initiatives strengthen market position, margin expansion, and consistent earnings growth. Broadened footprint in high-growth regions and markets enables Amcor to capture rising demand and evolving industry trends.

Business Model – Company value: Strong; Buffett’s preferred: Simple and understandable; Status: ✅; Explanation: Global packaging leader where the merger with Berry Global consolidates market share in essential consumer sectors. Economic Moat – Company value: Strong; Buffett’s preferred: Strong and durable advantages; Status: ✅; Explanation: Significant economies of scale and proprietary know‑how, with the announced 1‑for‑5 reverse stock split signaling continued restructuring of the combined entity.​ Management Quality – Company value: Moderate; Buffett’s preferred: Shareholder‑friendly; Status: ⚠️; Explanation: Dividend commitment and high yield support income investors, but recent complex M&A and dilution weigh on capital allocation quality.​ Return on Equity – 10‑year average: 23.5%; Buffett’s preferred: Above 15%; Status: ✅; Explanation: Long‑term average ROE remains excellent, though the larger equity base post‑merger will likely dilute future ROE levels.​ Return on Equity – Current: 4.2%; Buffett’s preferred: Above 15%; Status: ❌; Explanation: TTM ROE has dropped sharply to about 4.2% because of merger‑related expenses and the much higher reported equity balance around 11.7 billion dollars.​ Operating Margin – 10‑year average: 11.2%; Buffett’s preferred: Above 12%; Status: ⚠️; Explanation: Historical operating margins average roughly 11%, slightly below Buffett’s preferred threshold for high‑quality manufacturers.​ Operating Margin – Current: 9.8%; Buffett’s preferred: Above 12%; Status: ❌; Explanation: Current operating margin is under pressure around 10% due to integration costs and softer volumes.​ Debt to Equity Ratio – Company value: 1.27; Buffett’s preferred: Below 0.5; Status: ❌; Explanation: Financial leverage is high, with total debt estimated near 14.9 billion dollars versus equity of about 11.7 billion dollars.​ Net Debt to EBITDA – Company value: 3.4x; Buffett’s preferred: Below 2.0x; Status: ❌; Explanation: Net leverage of roughly 3.4 times EBITDA is elevated and implies cash flow must prioritize deleveraging over shareholder returns.​ Current Ratio – Company value: 1.20; Buffett’s preferred: Above 1.5; Status: ⚠️; Explanation: Liquidity is somewhat tight at about 1.2 times current liabilities, leaving limited buffer despite steady operating cash flow.​ Free Cash Flow – 5‑year average: 815 million dollars (described as volatile); Buffett’s preferred: Consistent and growing; Status: ⚠️; Explanation: Five‑year average FCF is solid but TTM free cash flow of roughly 725 million dollars is depressed by integration and transaction costs.​ Earnings Growth – 10‑year CAGR: 2.8%; Buffett’s preferred: Above 10%; Status: ❌; Explanation: Over the past decade earnings have grown in the low single digits, reflecting a mature, slow‑growing packaging market.​ Dividend Yield – Current: 6.29%; Buffett’s preferred: Above 4%; Status: ✅; Explanation: The stock offers an attractive yield above 6%, though the GAAP payout ratio currently exceeds 100% of reported earnings.​ Dividend Growth Streak – Company value: 25+ years; Buffett’s preferred: At least 10 years; Status: ✅; Explanation: Including the Bemis legacy record, Amcor has raised its dividend for more than 25 consecutive years and is recognized among dividend growth names.​ Price to Earnings Ratio – Current TTM: 27.53; Buffett’s preferred: Below 15; Status: ❌; Explanation: Using GAAP EPS of 0.30 dollars, the shares trade at about 27.5 times earnings, which is expensive against Buffett’s value threshold.​ Intrinsic Value (DCF) per share – Estimate: 4.85 dollars; Buffett’s preferred: Not applicable; Status: —; Explanation: A discounted cash flow model using TTM FCF of about 725 million dollars, 0% growth, 9% discount rate and 2.5% terminal growth yields intrinsic value around 4.85 dollars per share.​ Intrinsic Value (P/E) per share – Estimate: 9.60 dollars; Buffett’s preferred: Not applicable; Status: —; Explanation: Applying a 10‑year median P/E of about 18 times to normalized EPS of 0.53 dollars implies fair value near 9.60 dollars per share.​ Intrinsic Value (P/B) per share – Estimate: 12.73 dollars; Buffett’s preferred: Not applicable; Status: —; Explanation: Using an industry median price to book near 2.5 times and current book value of roughly 5.09 dollars per share yields intrinsic value around 12.73 dollars.​ Current Stock Price – Company value: 8.26 dollars; Buffett’s preferred: Not applicable; Status: —; Explanation: The latest close on December 24, 2025 shows Amcor trading at about 8.26 dollars per share.​ Margin of Safety – Range: minus 70% to plus 35%; Buffett’s preferred: Above 25%; Status: ⚠️; Explanation: Relative to the three valuation methods, the stock looks overvalued versus DCF but undervalued versus P/B, producing a wide margin‑of‑safety range from negative 70% to positive 35%.​ Final Recommendation – Company value: HOLD; Buffett’s preferred: Not applicable; Status: ⚠️; Explanation: The shares offer a high yield and appear cheap on asset and normalized earnings metrics, but weak current ROE and high leverage suggest caution until merger synergies clearly lift EPS.

Catalysts About Amcor Amcor is a global leader in consumer packaging and dispensing solutions for Nutrition, Health Care and Beauty and Wellness end markets. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Catalysts About Amcor Amcor is a global supplier of consumer packaging and dispensing solutions for Nutrition, health care and Beauty and Wellness end markets. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?