Alcoa Corporation

NYSE:AA 株式レポート

時価総額：US$19.7b

Alcoa 過去の業績

過去 基準チェック /46

Alcoaは、平均年間14.7%の収益成長を遂げていますが、 Metals and Mining業界の収益は、年間 減少しています。収益は、平均年間8.4% 2%収益成長率で 成長しています。 Alcoaの自己資本利益率は14.3%であり、純利益率は8.1%です。

主要情報

14.72%

収益成長率

6.66%

EPS成長率

Metals and Mining 業界の成長26.40%
収益成長率1.95%
株主資本利益率14.34%
ネット・マージン8.12%
前回の決算情報31 Mar 2026

最近の業績更新

Recent updates

ナラティブの更新 • May 13

AA: Production Stability And Higher Margins Will Support Stronger Long Term Outlook

Analysts have raised Alcoa's fair value estimate from $58.00 to $92.00, citing updated assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple as the main factors supporting the higher price target. What's in the News Alcoa reported first quarter 2026 production results, with Bauxite at 9.1 mdmt compared with 9.5 mdmt a year earlier, Alumina at 2,355 kmt in line with the prior year, and Aluminum at 607 kmt compared with 564 kmt a year earlier (Key Developments).
ナラティブの更新 • Apr 29

AA: Higher Margin Outlook And Production Plans Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have lifted their price target for Alcoa to $73.87 from $72.48, reflecting updated expectations around potential revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower assumed future P/E multiple. What's in the News Alcoa reported first quarter 2026 production results, with Bauxite output of 9.1 mdmt compared with 9.5 mdmt a year earlier, Alumina production of 2,355 kmt in line with the prior year, and Aluminum production of 607 kmt compared with 564 kmt a year ago (Key Developments).
ナラティブの更新 • Apr 15

AA: Updated Output Plans And Margins Will Shape Measured Future Returns

Analysts have revised their price target for Alcoa to approximately $72, up from about $67, citing updated assumptions around fair value, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E levels as key drivers of the change. What's in the News Alcoa reported fourth quarter 2025 production with Bauxite at 9.4 mdmt versus 9.3 mdmt a year earlier, Alumina at 2,481 kmt versus 2,390 kmt, and Aluminum at 604 kmt versus 571 kmt (Announcement of Operating Results).
Seeking Alpha • Apr 08

Alcoa Can See Tailwinds Driven By Geopolitical Risk

Summary Alcoa Corporation is well positioned for margin expansion through eFY26, driven by global supply constraints, carbon taxes, and potential US tariff relief. AA benefits from the Middle East supply disruptions, CBAM in Europe, and a ramping San Ciprian facility, supporting stronger pricing and production tailwinds. Alcoa targets $82.61/share at 7.53x eFY28 EV/aEBITDA, reiterating a Buy rating amid elevated aluminum prices and improving balance sheet metrics. Management focuses on debt reduction, monetizing offline sites, and leveraging 86% renewable energy to mitigate energy risks and support long-term AA value. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
ナラティブの更新 • Mar 31

AA: Higher Output And Trading Volumes Will Likely Still Fail To Justify Pricing

Analysts now place Alcoa's price target at about $46.37, compared with the prior $38.00. This reflects updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margin, discount rate, and future P/E levels.
ナラティブの更新 • Mar 17

AA: Production Plans And Margin Expectations Will Guide Balanced Future Returns

Analysts have adjusted their fair value estimate for Alcoa to $66.92 from $61.42, reflecting updated assumptions on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E expectations. What's in the News Alcoa issued production guidance for 2026, targeting total Alumina segment production between 9.7 and 9.9 million metric tons, with shipments between 11.8 and 12.0 million metric tons, reflecting the role of trading volumes and externally sourced alumina in meeting customer contracts (company guidance).
ナラティブの更新 • Mar 03

AA: Production Guidance And Margin Assumptions Will Shape Balanced Future Returns

Analysts have nudged their Alcoa price target slightly higher to $61.42 from $61.08, reflecting updated assumptions around the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and a modestly higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Alcoa issued 2026 production guidance for its Alumina segment, with expected production between 9.7 million and 9.9 million metric tons and shipments between 11.8 million and 12.0 million metric tons, reflecting the use of trading volumes and externally sourced alumina to meet customer contracts (Corporate guidance).
ナラティブの更新 • Feb 16

AA: Higher Margins And Production Will Still Likely Fail To Justify Pricing

Analysts have raised their price target on Alcoa from $33.00 to $38.00, citing updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth expectations, profit margin outlook, and a revised future P/E multiple. What's in the News Alcoa issued production guidance for 2025 and outlined expectations for 2026, with the Alumina segment projected to produce between 9.7 and 9.9 million metric tons in 2026, and shipments expected between 11.8 and 12.0 million metric tons, reflecting a mix of internal production, trading volumes, and externally sourced alumina to meet customer contracts (company guidance).
ナラティブの更新 • Feb 02

AA: Low Carbon Smelting And Margin Assumptions Will Shape Balanced Future Returns

Analysts have raised their price target on Alcoa from US$45.42 to US$61.08. They cite updates in their models that reflect revised assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples.
ナラティブの更新 • Jan 19

AA: Future Decarbonization Benefits Will Likely Fail To Justify Current Pricing

Analysts have lifted their price target on Alcoa from US$27.00 to US$33.00, pointing to updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and a lower future P/E as key drivers of the change. What's in the News Alcoa, Ball Corporation and Unilever announced the first use of ELYSIS carbon free smelting technology in consumer personal and home care packaging, using aluminum that eliminates direct smelting greenhouse gas emissions and generates oxygen instead of CO2 (Key Developments).
ナラティブの更新 • Jan 05

AA: Carbon Free Smelting And Energy Moves Will Support Balanced Long Term Outlook

Analysts have raised their price target on Alcoa from approximately $42 to $58 per share, citing expectations for faster revenue growth, significantly higher profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple. Together, these factors support a meaningfully higher fair value estimate.
分析記事 • Dec 30

Alcoa Corporation's (NYSE:AA) Share Price Boosted 29% But Its Business Prospects Need A Lift Too

Despite an already strong run, Alcoa Corporation ( NYSE:AA ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 29% in the...
ナラティブの更新 • Dec 20

AA: Low Carbon Smelting Shift Will Likely Pressure Future Returns

Narrative Update on Alcoa Analysts have raised their price target on Alcoa by approximately 10 percent to around 45 dollars per share, citing expectations for modestly stronger revenue growth, materially improved profit margins, and a more attractive forward earnings multiple. What's in the News Alcoa, Ball and Unilever unveiled the first consumer packaging using ELYSIS carbon free smelting technology, combining low carbon primary aluminum with recycled content to create one of the lowest footprint aerosol cans on the market (company announcement).
ナラティブの更新 • Dec 06

AA: Low Carbon Initiatives And Portfolio Reshaping Will Define Future Performance

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Alcoa from approximately 39.54 dollars to 41.29 dollars, citing higher long term revenue growth expectations and a richer future earnings multiple, despite a lower projected profit margin and slightly higher discount rate. What's in the News Alcoa, Ball and Unilever unveiled the first consumer packaging using ELYSIS carbon free smelting technology in low carbon aerosol cans ahead of COP30, highlighting a major step toward decarbonized aluminum supply chains (Key Developments).
ナラティブの更新 • Nov 22

AA: Measured Shifts in Operations and Partnerships Will Shape Future Performance

Narrative Update on Alcoa: Analyst Price Target Adjustment Analysts have slightly lowered their fair value estimate for Alcoa, revising the price target from $39.63 to $39.54 per share. This change reflects modest adjustments to outlooks on discount rate and growth assumptions.
ナラティブの更新 • Nov 05

AA: Future Investments and Facility Upgrades Will Drive Shareholder Value

Analysts have raised their price target for Alcoa slightly. The new target is $39.63, up from $39.21.
ナラティブの更新 • Oct 22

Analysts Raise Alcoa Price Target as New Partnerships and Plant Closure Drive Valuation Upward

Alcoa's analyst price target has increased from $36.64 to $39.21. This change reflects improved revenue growth and profit margin projections according to analysts.
ナラティブの更新 • Oct 08

Tariff Volatility And Recycled Materials Will Erode Primary Aluminum Margins

Analysts have raised their price target for Alcoa from $34.09 to $36.64. They cite improved forecast profit margins and lower expected future price-to-earnings ratios as key factors in their updated outlook.
ナラティブの更新 • Sep 24

Tariff Volatility And Recycled Materials Will Erode Primary Aluminum Margins

Despite a notable downgrade in revenue growth expectations, an improved net profit margin has offset this impact, resulting in a slight increase in Alcoa's analyst price target from $33.55 to $34.09. What's in the News Held Analyst/Investor Day event.
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新しいナラティブ • Apr 24

Australia Refinancing And San Ciprián Restart Will Support Stable Operations

Strategic refinancing and joint ventures are expected to enhance cash flow, reduce interest expenses, and stabilize revenue.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 18

Alcoa's Q1 2025 Review: Tariff Hurts, But Game Isn't Over

Summary Alcoa's stock is down ~75% from its ATH. Tariff wars and economic uncertainty added fuel to the fire, but Q1 2025 results show strong net income and adjusted EBITDA growth. Despite a 3% QoQ revenue dip, net income more than doubled to $548 million, with adjusted net income beating Street estimates at $568 million. Alcoa refinanced $1 billion in debt, extending maturities and lowering interest expenses, aiming for an adjusted net debt range of $1-1.5 billion. Tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports will significantly impact Alcoa's costs, with a projected unfavorable impact of ~$90 million in Q2 2025. Because current tariffs hinder construction accessibility and will likely be revised (perhaps favorably for Alcoa), the present undervaluation of AA stock provides significant upside potential. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 30

Alcoa And The Aluminum Market: A Point Of Tension And Growth

Summary Alcoa's financial results have been volatile, with losses in 2022-2023 and profits in 2024 due to aluminum price recovery and strategic asset restructuring. The company focuses on high-quality assets, vertical integration, and technological advancements, aiming for efficiency and sustainability without aggressive expansion. Despite positive developments, Alcoa remains vulnerable to raw material price fluctuations and high energy costs, impacting its financial stability. Alcoa shares are fairly valued at $34; I recommend considering a purchase closer to $25, assigning a "Hold" rating due to limited upside. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 11

The 'Trump Factor' In Action: Why I'm Bullish On Alcoa

Summary Alcoa's vertical integration and strong aluminum demand outside China position it well amid tariffs, supply chain shifts, and economic growth trends. Tariffs could disrupt operations, but Alcoa's flexibility and improved balance sheet offer resilience and potential for significant upside. Valuation is attractive, with potential for over 30% stock price upside if economic growth accelerates and tariff risks are mitigated. Alcoa is highly cyclical and volatile, making it suitable for investors with patience and risk tolerance, despite trade policy and market risks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 30

Alcoa: The Tides Have Shifted To A Bullish Market

Summary Alcoa Corporation closed FY24 with a strong macroeconomic backdrop, realizing revenue and margin growth resulting from strong aluminum and alumina pricing and volumes shipped. AA stock is well-positioned to benefit from potential trade restrictions and tariffs, with a strong global presence and flexible operational routes. Risks include potential negative impacts from trade wars and economic recoveries in China and Europe, which may affect pricing and shipment routes. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 06

Alcoa: Learn How To Trade A Sentiment-Based Stock (Technical Analysis)

Summary Our methodology combines sentiment and non-linear analysis, focusing on human behavior patterns to trade stocks like Alcoa Corporation effectively. Traditional technical analysis is insufficient; our approach identifies high-probability setups with specific risk parameters, as illustrated here with AA stock. Recent analysis projected a pullback in Alcoa, presenting a bullish opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio. We provide reliable, actionable insights for traders and investors, emphasizing capital preservation and strategic risk management. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 31

Alcoa Corporation: Bearish Market, And Tariff Uncertainty Blur Positive Signals, Hold

Summary I rate Alcoa Corporation a hold due to operational headwinds impacting financial performance despite a strong balance sheet. Alcoa's financials show weak revenue growth and profitability, with high expenses and low net income compared to peers, signaling operational inefficiencies. The Dow Jones US Aluminum Index's downtrend and potential tariff hikes by President Trump suggest short-term weakness but a promising long-term outlook for AA. Alcoa's vast global presence, vertical integration, and potential benefits from proposed tariffs position it well to capitalize on projected market growth and aluminum demand. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 22

Alcoa's Financial Position Is Improving: Upgraded To A Buy Rating

Summary Alcoa's strong Q2'24 performance was driven by favorable aluminum prices and cost-cutting, leading to improved margins despite lower volumes. Positive macroeconomic factors, including tariffs on Chinese imports and expected aluminum demand growth, create favorable conditions for Alcoa. Alcoa's financial position strengthened by inventory reductions and strategic asset sales. I believe management will use the raised cash to deleverage the balance sheet and enhance shareholder value. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

収支内訳

Alcoa の稼ぎ方とお金の使い方。LTMベースの直近の報告された収益に基づく。

収益と収入の歴史

NYSE:AA 収益、費用、利益 ( )USD Millions
日付収益収益G+A経費研究開発費
31 Mar 2612,6551,02733922
31 Dec 2512,8311,14132524
30 Sep 2512,8681,12933552
30 Jun 2512,77798932057
31 Mar 2512,66584730458
31 Dec 2411,8955629157
30 Sep 2411,004-29327454
30 Jun 2410,702-55026447
31 Mar 2410,480-67224640
31 Dec 2310,551-65123939
30 Sep 2310,619-89625234
30 Jun 2310,868-1,47424932
31 Mar 2311,828-82326133
31 Dec 2212,451-12326432
30 Sep 2213,128-12026233
30 Jun 2213,38696327134
31 Mar 2212,57572326933
31 Dec 2112,15242927431
30 Sep 2111,20481727930
30 Jun 2110,46043128828
31 Mar 219,775-7529427
31 Dec 209,286-17031427
30 Sep 209,330-46931924
30 Jun 209,532-64134025
31 Mar 2010,095-84636727
31 Dec 1910,433-1,12539527
30 Sep 1911,341-77139628
30 Jun 1912,164-55639028
31 Mar 1913,032-14439530
31 Dec 1813,40325038731
30 Sep 1813,233338833
30 Jun 1812,80712243234
31 Mar 1812,08718739933
31 Dec 1711,65227936532
30 Sep 1711,01528835330
30 Jun 1710,38016528830
31 Mar 179,8443528629
31 Dec 169,318-40031233
30 Sep 169,232-1,10129941
30 Jun 169,582-1,21531947
31 Mar 1610,223-1,23933359
31 Dec 1511,199-86334169

質の高い収益: AAは 高品質の収益 を持っています。

利益率の向上: AAの現在の純利益率 (8.1%)は、昨年(6.7%)よりも高くなっています。

フリー・キャッシュフローと収益の比較

過去の収益成長分析

収益動向: AA過去 5 年間で収益を上げており、収益は年間14.7%増加しています。

成長の加速: AAの過去 1 年間の収益成長率 ( 21.3% ) は、5 年間の平均 ( 年間14.7%を上回っています。

収益対業界: AAの過去 1 年間の収益成長率 ( 21.3% ) Metals and Mining業界77.8%を上回りませんでした。

株主資本利益率

高いROE: AAの 自己資本利益率 ( 14.3% ) は 低い とみなされます。

総資産利益率

使用総資本利益率

過去の好業績企業の発掘

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

企業分析と財務データの現状

データ最終更新日（UTC時間）
企業分析2026/05/27 18:25
終値2026/05/27 00:00
収益2026/03/31
年間収益2025/12/31

データソース

企業分析に使用したデータはS&P Global Market Intelligence LLC のものです。本レポートを作成するための分析モデルでは、以下のデータを使用しています。データは正規化されているため、ソースが利用可能になるまでに時間がかかる場合があります。

パッケージデータタイムフレーム米国ソース例
会社財務10年
  • 損益計算書
  • キャッシュ・フロー計算書
  • 貸借対照表
アナリストのコンセンサス予想+プラス3年
  • 予想財務
  • アナリストの目標株価
市場価格30年
  • 株価
  • 配当、分割、措置
所有権10年
  • トップ株主
  • インサイダー取引
マネジメント10年
  • リーダーシップ・チーム
  • 取締役会
主な進展10年
  • 会社からのお知らせ

* 米国証券を対象とした例であり、非米国証券については、同等の規制書式および情報源を使用。

特に断りのない限り、すべての財務データは1年ごとの期間に基づいていますが、四半期ごとに更新されます。これは、TTM（Trailing Twelve Month）またはLTM（Last Twelve Month）データとして知られています。詳細はこちら。

分析モデルとスノーフレーク

本レポートを生成するために使用した分析モデルの詳細は当社のGithubページでご覧いただけます。また、レポートの使用方法に関するガイドやYoutubeのチュートリアルも掲載しています。

シンプリー・ウォールストリート分析モデルを設計・構築した世界トップクラスのチームについてご紹介します。

業界およびセクターの指標

私たちの業界とセクションの指標は、Simply Wall Stによって6時間ごとに計算されます。

アナリスト筋

Alcoa Corporation 12 これらのアナリストのうち、弊社レポートのインプットとして使用した売上高または利益の予想を提出したのは、 。アナリストの投稿は一日中更新されます。29

アナリスト機関
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