Marathon Petroleum Corporation

NYSE:MPC 株式レポート

時価総額：US$71.8b

Marathon Petroleum 将来の成長

Future 基準チェック /16

Marathon Petroleumの収益と利益は、それぞれ年間1%と1.2%減少すると予測されています。EPS は年間7.2%で 増加すると予想されています。自己資本利益率は 3 年後に21.1%になると予測されています。

主要情報

-1.2%

収益成長率

7.23%

EPS成長率

Oil and Gas 収益成長10.7%
収益成長率-1.0%
将来の株主資本利益率21.09%
アナリストカバレッジ

Good

最終更新日07 May 2026

今後の成長に関する最新情報

分析記事 • May 08

Marathon Petroleum Corporation Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Marathon Petroleum Corporation ( NYSE:MPC ) just released its first-quarter report and things are looking bullish...

Recent updates

分析記事 • May 08

Marathon Petroleum Corporation Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Marathon Petroleum Corporation ( NYSE:MPC ) just released its first-quarter report and things are looking bullish...
Seeking Alpha • Apr 30

Marathon Petroleum: Earnings Next Week To Reflect Recent Tailwinds

Summary Marathon Petroleum Corporation is rated a Buy, trading at only 10x 2026 earnings with strong sector tailwinds and a history of market outperformance. MPC benefits from surging crack spreads, unique heavy crude refining capacity, and immediate windfall profits due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. Despite a challenging 2025, MPC maintained high utilization, robust EBITDA per barrel, shareholder returns, and a strong balance sheet with $3.7B in cash. Analysts consistently underestimate MPC; upcoming earnings could see a 15–20% revenue boost, with capital allocation decisions key to future upside. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
ナラティブ更新 • Apr 25

MPC: Oil Price Assumptions And Labor Talks Will Shape Future Returns

The analyst price target for Marathon Petroleum has been revised higher by $10.57 to $247.18. Analysts point to updated fair value estimates, modestly higher revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, as well as a slightly richer future P/E multiple as key drivers for the change.
ナラティブ更新 • Apr 10

MPC: Higher Oil Assumptions And Labor Talks Will Shape Future Returns

The updated analyst price target for Marathon Petroleum increases to $236.61 from $216.17. Analysts attribute this change to adjustments in fair value assumptions, a slightly lower discount rate, revised revenue growth and profit margin inputs, and a different future P/E outlook.
新しいナラティブ • Apr 10

Refining And Midstream Expansion Will Drive Major Upside Over The Next Decade

Catalysts About Marathon Petroleum Marathon Petroleum operates a large, integrated refining, marketing, midstream and renewables platform across the United States. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
ナラティブ更新 • Mar 27

MPC: Elevated Oil Assumptions And Labor Uncertainty Will Pressure Future Returns

Narrative Update on Marathon Petroleum The analyst price target for Marathon Petroleum has shifted from about $202.50 to roughly $216.17. Analysts have cited updated oil price assumptions, recent Middle East related supply risk, and refiners' earnings estimates as key drivers behind their revised outlook.
新しいナラティブ • Mar 27

Sour Crude Exposure And Midstream Assumptions Will Pressure Long Term Earnings Outlook

Catalysts About Marathon Petroleum Marathon Petroleum operates a large, integrated refining, marketing, midstream and renewables business concentrated in the United States. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
ナラティブ更新 • Mar 11

MPC: Refining Conditions Labor Talks And Buybacks Will Shape Future Outcomes

The analyst fair value estimate for Marathon Petroleum has edged up by about $3 to $202.50, reflecting recent price target revisions across the Street as analysts weigh slightly adjusted discount rate and P/E assumptions, along with their updated views on refining conditions into 2026. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Marathon Petroleum has been mixed, with several firms adjusting price targets in both directions as they reassess refining fundamentals, crude assumptions, and where consensus sits for 2026.
ナラティブ更新 • Feb 24

MPC: Refining Margins And Capital Returns Will Shape Balanced Future Outcomes

Analysts have nudged their average price targets on Marathon Petroleum higher, with recent changes ranging from a $1 lift at the low end to a $28 increase at the high end. These moves reflect updated views on refining fundamentals, margins and longer term P/E assumptions.
ナラティブ更新 • Feb 08

MPC: Capital Returns And Refining Margins Will Drive Balanced Future Outcomes

Analysts have adjusted their price targets on Marathon Petroleum, supporting a modest increase in our fair value estimate from US$194.61 to about US$199.56. They cite updated commodity assumptions, mixed views on refining conditions into 2026, and revised expectations for earnings and future P/E multiples.
ナラティブ更新 • Jan 23

MPC: Capital Returns And Refining Fundamentals Will Shape Balanced Future Upside

Narrative Update Our Marathon Petroleum fair value estimate moves lower by about US$5 to US$194.61 per share, reflecting a slightly higher discount rate, modestly softer revenue growth and margin assumptions, and a lower future P/E multiple that align with recent analyst price target trims and cautious views on sector outperformance, even as some expect near term refining fundamentals to remain supportive. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Marathon Petroleum points to a mixed setup, with most analysts trimming or fine tuning price targets while keeping broadly balanced views on upside potential and execution risks.
ナラティブ更新 • Jan 07

MPC: Capital Returns And Refining Execution Will Support Future Upside

Narrative Update: Marathon Petroleum Analyst Price Target Shift The updated analyst price target for Marathon Petroleum moves slightly lower to about US$200 from roughly US$201, as analysts fine tune their models around commodity assumptions, refining asset optimization, and the role of midstream investments and capital returns in the overall valuation. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Marathon Petroleum cluster around refiners and integrated oil coverage, with analysts fine tuning targets and ratings as they refresh commodity and margin assumptions.
ナラティブ更新 • Dec 23

MPC: Capital Returns Will Drive Upside Amid Constructive Refining Tailwinds

Analysts have nudged our Marathon Petroleum fair value estimate slightly lower to approximately $201 from about $201.33 per share, as a modestly higher discount rate and slightly softer margin outlook more than offset incremental optimism around long term refining tailwinds, midstream value creation, and capital return that underpin a broadly higher Street price target range of roughly $189 to $220. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts broadly frame Marathon Petroleum as a top tier refiner with a favorable risk reward profile, pointing to resilient cash generation, disciplined capital allocation, and supportive sector dynamics that justify price targets clustering near the low to mid $200s per share.
ナラティブ更新 • Dec 09

MPC: Capital Returns And Midstream Investments Will Support Margins In A Tighter Market

Analysts have nudged their average price target for Marathon Petroleum slightly higher, with updated fair value estimates moving from about $199.94 to $201.33 per share. Modestly improved margin expectations and a still supportive, though finely balanced, refining backdrop underpin a more constructive long term outlook.
ナラティブ更新 • Nov 24

MPC: Capital Returns And Midstream Investments Will Steady Margins Amid Ongoing Volatility

Marathon Petroleum’s analyst price target has moved modestly higher to approximately $199.94 from $197.50, as analysts highlight stable refining margins, ongoing capital allocation discipline, and industry tailwinds in light of updated market and commodity forecasts. Analyst Commentary Recent updates from Street research highlight a mixed but generally constructive view on Marathon Petroleum, with analysts noting both structural strengths and emerging risks within the business and sector.
ナラティブ更新 • Nov 09

MPC: Capital Returns And Midstream Strength Will Balance Margin Volatility Ahead

Marathon Petroleum’s analyst price target rose slightly from $196.11 to $197.50, as analysts cite ongoing capital discipline and midstream strength, despite soft spots in recent results. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst reports on Marathon Petroleum reflect a mix of optimism and caution, as perspectives diverge on the company’s valuation and future prospects.
分析記事 • Nov 04

Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) Will Pay A Larger Dividend Than Last Year At $1.00

Marathon Petroleum Corporation's ( NYSE:MPC ) periodic dividend will be increasing on the 10th of December to $1.00...
ナラティブ更新 • Oct 26

Refining Margins And Capital Returns Will Drive Outperformance Amid Market Volatility

Analysts have increased their average price target for Marathon Petroleum from $192.17 to $196.11. This change is attributed to resilient refining margins, ongoing sector tailwinds, and the company's strong position in capital returns amid a volatile oil market environment.
ナラティブ更新 • Oct 12

US Refining Investments Will Secure Future Market Opportunities

The analyst price target for Marathon Petroleum has increased by $3 to $192. Analysts cite sector tailwinds, resilient refining margins, and continued strength in global product markets for their updated outlook.
ナラティブ更新 • Sep 28

US Refining Investments Will Secure Future Market Opportunities

Marathon Petroleum's fair value estimate has risen to $189.17 as analysts anticipate continued robust refining margins driven by persistent supply tightness, strong margin capture, and positive sector tailwinds, though some caution over valuation following recent outperformance. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite robust refining margins and strong margin capture, with recent quarters outperforming expectations and margin strength persisting despite calls for a decline.
分析記事 • Sep 22

Marathon Petroleum Corporation's (NYSE:MPC) Price In Tune With Earnings

Marathon Petroleum Corporation's ( NYSE:MPC ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 26.4x might make it look like a...
ナラティブ更新 • Sep 13

US Refining Investments Will Secure Future Market Opportunities

Analysts have raised Marathon Petroleum’s price target to $183.50, citing persistent refining margin strength, resilient earnings, and optimism about long-term supply/demand balances—though concerns over valuation and potential crack spread headwinds are tempering further upside. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are raising price targets due to persistent refining margin strength and tighter-than-expected global supply/demand balances, especially regarding distillate products, with outlooks for 2026 and beyond increasingly supportive.
分析記事 • Aug 08

Results: Marathon Petroleum Corporation Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

NYSE:MPC 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Marathon Petroleum's Fair Values from the Community and select yours...
分析記事 • May 13

Investors Appear Satisfied With Marathon Petroleum Corporation's (NYSE:MPC) Prospects As Shares Rocket 28%

Marathon Petroleum Corporation ( NYSE:MPC ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 28% after a shaky period...
Seeking Alpha • Mar 26

Marathon Petroleum: Unique Financial Position (Rating Upgrade)

Summary Marathon generates an ex-ordinary amount of cash. In a short period of time, the company could pay off its debt and repurchase a large portion of the stock to leave a very large amount of cash unused. Its partner, MPLX, now pays for the dividend and basic capital, leaving the balance of the cash free for use elsewhere. In a three to five-year period, the company might generate a very large amount of excess cash for what now appears headed toward paying extraordinary high dividends. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 04

Marathon Petroleum: Further Upside Likely After A Better-Than-Feared Q4

Summary Marathon Petroleum Corporation has faced challenges due to tighter crack spreads, but its MLP, MPLX, has performed well, contributing to a solid earnings report and supporting shares. MPC's refining operations are undervalued at 3.2x, 2024 EBITDA, with aggressive share repurchases also increasing the per-share value of its MPLX stake. Despite a tough refining environment, MPC's secure dividend and flexible buyback strategy offer a minimum 3% share count reduction and strong shareholder returns. Long-term demand for gasoline and limited refinery supply support MPC's potential for upside, making it a strong buy for patient investors. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 24

Marathon Petroleum: Low Valuation And MPLX Ownership Make It A Buy

Summary Marathon Petroleum is a Buy due to its 64% ownership in MPLX. MPC's market cap is $43 billion, with its MPLX stake valued at $31 billion, leaving refining assets valued at just $12 billion. Continued demand growth along with refinery closures could improve crack spreads in 2025. Sentiment and seasonality for refiners are at a low, which often is a good time to buy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 06

Marathon Petroleum: Shares Are Attractive Despite Muted Q3 Results

Summary Marathon Petroleum shares have dropped significantly, but Q3 earnings exceeded expectations, boosting the stock by over 3% and reinforcing my bullish stance. The Company's refining operations' implied equity value has sharply declined, creating a compelling investment opportunity, especially with the company's strong capital return capacity and share repurchases. Despite cyclical challenges, US product demand remains firm, and global policy easing should stabilize economic activity, supporting a recovery in crack spreads. With MPLX providing a valuation floor and MPC's aggressive share count reduction, I see over 40% upside, making MPC a top value opportunity. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 20

Framing Marathon Petroleum Financials With Unexpected Weak Spreads (Knees)

Summary Marathon Petroleum Corporation reported stellar Q2 results, but Gulf Coast crack spreads collapsed in September, impacting short-term performance. MPLX's $2.2 billion annualized cash flow significantly supports Marathon's dividends and capital, ensuring generous returns for MPLX investors. Despite short-term challenges, Marathon's long-term strategy focuses on strong mid-cycle margins, significant capital returns, and organic growth opportunities. Management remains committed to share buybacks and sustainable dividend growth, leveraging MPLX's distribution to cover CapEx and dividends, reinforcing Marathon's resilience. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 26

Marathon Petroleum: At An Inflection Point, Downgraded To Hold

Summary Marathon Petroleum Corporation has experienced weaker refining margins in 2024. Its extraordinary share buybacks have recently had the effect of supporting the share price but chipping away at market capitalization. This $54.1 billion market cap company is also a 63.4% owner of $45.8 billion mid-streamer MPLX. Muted demand and higher-cost Canadian crude is offset somewhat by flat oil feedstock prices and the generous dividend Marathon Petroleum receives as majority owner of MPLX. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 16

Marathon Petroleum Corporation: A Solid Oil Refiner Despite Sector Weakness

Summary Marathon Petroleum benefits from geopolitical uncertainty and high oil prices but faces political risks and declining margins due to current oil price weakness. Despite strong financials and significant share buybacks, Marathon Oil's stock price is expected to decline amid falling oil prices and macroeconomic challenges. Marathon Petroleum has outperformed peers due to efficient operations and substantial share buybacks, reducing share count by nearly 50% in three years. The stock is fairly valued with a clean balance sheet, but it's prudent to wait for oil prices and refining margins to improve before buying. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

業績と収益の成長予測

NYSE:MPC - アナリストの将来予測と過去の財務データ ( )USD Millions
日付収益収益フリー・キャッシュフロー営業活動によるキャッシュ平均アナリスト数
12/31/2028139,4496,0198,60211,2117
12/31/2027135,2906,1898,21211,67711
12/31/2026143,6548,6529,47712,71510
3/31/2026135,9464,6285,7029,438N/A
12/31/2025133,1744,0434,7678,253N/A
9/30/2025133,5812,8794,2767,391N/A
6/30/2025133,8622,1333,6476,466N/A
3/31/2025137,9692,4324,4587,069N/A
12/31/2024139,3363,4426,1328,665N/A
9/30/2024142,6704,5215,3267,581N/A
6/30/2024148,7727,1778,82610,850N/A
3/31/2024147,3947,8889,57411,592N/A
12/31/2023149,3489,67212,22714,117N/A
9/30/2023152,72911,47015,29217,376N/A
6/30/2023157,47712,66612,57214,937N/A
3/31/2023174,91716,31115,52317,905N/A
12/31/2022178,23614,43613,94116,361N/A
9/30/2022173,75611,96213,47815,653N/A
6/30/2022160,2418,18110,14011,991N/A
3/31/2022135,9232,6094,7646,419N/A
12/31/2021120,4511,2882,8964,360N/A
9/30/2021103,0334755742,014N/A
6/30/202187,972-1,4752,7864,483N/A
3/31/202170,457-1,9561,5013,641N/A
12/31/202069,896-11,032-3682,419N/A
9/30/202079,918-10,734-1793,500N/A
6/30/202090,070-8,6368794,966N/A
3/31/2020105,214-7,7152,5307,050N/A
12/31/2019111,2751,830N/A9,441N/A
9/30/2019115,6462,523N/A9,759N/A
6/30/2019111,0992,419N/A8,154N/A
3/31/2019106,0982,735N/A7,918N/A
12/31/201886,2842,106N/A6,158N/A
9/30/201885,4493,843N/A6,176N/A
6/30/201881,7164,008N/A6,900N/A
3/31/201877,6183,437N/A5,367N/A
12/31/201775,0533,430N/A6,612N/A
9/30/201769,2511,642N/A4,860N/A
6/30/201764,702885N/A3,359N/A
3/31/201761,3851,202N/A4,773N/A
12/31/201663,5171,173N/A4,017N/A
9/30/201654,3721,132N/A3,810N/A
6/30/201656,3641,935N/A4,474N/A
3/31/201660,0401,959N/A3,201N/A
12/31/201564,4712,848N/A4,073N/A
9/30/201571,1113,459N/A3,641N/A
6/30/201578,1943,182N/A3,650N/A

アナリストによる今後の成長予測

収入対貯蓄率: MPCの収益は今後 3 年間で減少すると予測されています (年間-1.2% )。

収益対市場: MPCの収益は今後 3 年間で減少すると予測されています (年間-1.2% )。

高成長収益: MPCの収益は今後 3 年間で減少すると予測されています。

収益対市場: MPCの収益は今後 3 年間で減少すると予想されています (年間-1% )。

高い収益成長: MPCの収益は今後 3 年間で減少すると予測されています (年間-1% )。

一株当たり利益成長率予想

将来の株主資本利益率

将来のROE: MPCの 自己資本利益率 は、3年後には高くなると予測されています ( 21.1 %)

成長企業の発掘

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

企業分析と財務データの現状

データ最終更新日（UTC時間）
企業分析2026/05/07 20:07
終値2026/05/07 00:00
収益2026/03/31
年間収益2025/12/31

データソース

企業分析に使用したデータはS&P Global Market Intelligence LLC のものです。本レポートを作成するための分析モデルでは、以下のデータを使用しています。データは正規化されているため、ソースが利用可能になるまでに時間がかかる場合があります。

パッケージデータタイムフレーム米国ソース例
会社財務10年
  • 損益計算書
  • キャッシュ・フロー計算書
  • 貸借対照表
アナリストのコンセンサス予想+プラス3年
  • 予想財務
  • アナリストの目標株価
市場価格30年
  • 株価
  • 配当、分割、措置
所有権10年
  • トップ株主
  • インサイダー取引
マネジメント10年
  • リーダーシップ・チーム
  • 取締役会
主な進展10年
  • 会社からのお知らせ

* 米国証券を対象とした例であり、非米国証券については、同等の規制書式および情報源を使用。

特に断りのない限り、すべての財務データは1年ごとの期間に基づいていますが、四半期ごとに更新されます。これは、TTM（Trailing Twelve Month）またはLTM（Last Twelve Month）データとして知られています。詳細はこちら。

分析モデルとスノーフレーク

本レポートを生成するために使用した分析モデルの詳細は当社のGithubページでご覧いただけます。また、レポートの使用方法に関するガイドやYoutubeのチュートリアルも掲載しています。

シンプリー・ウォールストリート分析モデルを設計・構築した世界トップクラスのチームについてご紹介します。

業界およびセクターの指標

私たちの業界とセクションの指標は、Simply Wall Stによって6時間ごとに計算されます。

アナリスト筋

Marathon Petroleum Corporation 15 これらのアナリストのうち、弊社レポートのインプットとして使用した売上高または利益の予想を提出したのは、 。アナリストの投稿は一日中更新されます。31

アナリスト機関
Theresa ChenBarclays
Phillip JungwirthBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Jean Ann SalisburyBofA Global Research