Seeking Alpha • Sep 22
Profire Energy: Diversification And Robust Balance Sheet Bring A Lot To The Table
Summary
Profire is a micro-cap oilfield services provider with an exceptional balance sheet and a history of building shareholder equity.
Recently revenues and earnings/share have increased, with estimates calling for further growth due to its current focus on large midstream plants and alternative industries.
Based on sell-side analysts' projected revenues and Price/Sales, the share price has 25% upside potential over the next two years.
We recommend investors buy PFIE at the current market price.
Background
We believe Profire (PFIE) is due for a significant upside because of the topline push from diversification efforts and its strong balance sheet as reflected through the recent repurchase program. PFIE manufactures, installs, and services burner management systems (or BMS), a critical technology in upstream, midstream, and downstream oilfield infrastructure. The Profire BMS maintains burner flame, manages fuel flow to the burner to regulate vessel temperature, and safeguards the flaring of volatile hydrocarbons for safety and emissions control. The company dominates the North American small and mid-size oilfield burner management system market with an 80% market share.
A broad analysis of 53 oilfield services equities; was recently completed by my co-author, Thomas Prescott. Profire Energy was the best value the in the group according to a matrix based on valuation, growth, profitability, ownership, and debt. PFIE is a micro-cap with a market capitalization of only 48.44M.
Outlook and Strategy
PFIE has recently expanded its BMS offerings beyond the oil and gas market into renewables, infrastructure, power generation, mining, agriculture, food & beverage, and manufacturing. Among its recent innovations, it has already beta-tested a solution for collecting and reporting real-time carbon emissions data. Further, the company has been active in R&D activities to develop new products and revenue streams. It continued product trials through Q2. During Q2, it saw increased inventory from the strategic orders, allowing it to fulfill the order backlog in 2H 2022.
Although PFIE has recently diversified into new industries, oil and natural gas will remain key markets. North American energy production is likely to ramp up as demand increases. According to the EIA, US crude oil production can grow by 0.6 million barrels per day in 2023 compared to 2022. But because of the supply chain handicap, the global energy supply will remain tight, resulting in upward pressure on the prices. The recent sanctions against Russia and its fallout on European energy supply would keep Russian oil restricted, leaving room for an elevated energy price. Plus, the continued labor shortages and the delays in the supply chain would unsettle any production ramp-up.
Over the past year until Q2, Profire has found a solid footing in the large midstream plants and alternative industries. Backed by the energy drilling and completion activity uptick, it expects to complete more projects in Q3 and Q4 while it adds new customers and receives repeat orders from the existing ones. Management believes that supplying to large midstream plants can achieve revenue growth exceeding 100% in FY2022 compared to FY2021 in the midstream business. Currently, it expects to exceed its previous forecast ($1 million in revenues) from this segment.
Risk Factors
PFIE is a small oil field supplier reliant on revenues from a single product line, burner management systems. PFIE appears to have solid price return potential if it can meet revenue estimates. Forward share price estimates are based on past price/sales ratios. These ratios, although empirical, also reflect market sentiment. The broader energy sector has been exceptionally volatile with high perceived risk. In the short term, price/sales ratios could contract if market sentiment deteriorates further.
PFIE Balance Sheet: 2013 - Present
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PFIE's balance sheet is a fortress with 0.08% long-term debt/equity compared to the industry average of 116.5%. Over the last ten years, total assets have increased almost 300%, from $12.4M to $49.4M. Despite an industry-wide downturn beginning in late 2018, PFIE was able to add to its long-term assets through synergistic acquisitions.
In June 2019, PFIE acquired assets, including an innovative and complementary product line with manufacturing capacity in China, from Midflow Services for $2.5M in cash. In August 2019, it increased exposure to Northeast shale plays by acquiring ownership interests in Millstream for $2.4M Cash and $1M in Stock. These two acquisitions are expected to add $3.5M to $5.5M in annual revenue.
Total Assets & Liabilities, Share Count, and Equity/Share
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Since 2013, PFIE has increased book value per share by over 300% from $0.23 to $0.93/share. Much of this increase occurred as an energy sector upcycle beginning in 2015 matured and reached its final peak in late 2014. Through the pandemic dip, PFIE increased total assets while decreasing share count and total liabilities. The share count was reduced by about 2.4% as 451,000 shares were repurchased at an average price of $1.22.
Earnings Per Share and Revenue
Revenue and EPS
According to estimates, revenue and EPS have increased for the last six quarters and are expected to increase further through 2023. On August 4th, PFIE reported Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.01 in-line with estimates and revenue of $9.6M (+59.2% Y/Y), beating estimates by $0.9M. Subsequently, shares rallied to almost $1.30 on August 11th and joined a broad energy sector slide to close at $1.04 on September 20th.
Past Price Return Behavior with Relation to Broader Energy Market
Price Return: 2008 - Present
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PFIE is plotted in blue with OIH in green and XLE in purple in the upper pane, while CL1 is plotted in the lower pane. Over the period, PFIE has lagged both XLE and OIH. However, in two periods (mid-2014 and early 2018), PFIE shares spiked on greater than average volume. Both periods coincided with a maturing upcycle in the broader energy market and a sustained period of elevated CL1. If energy markets remain at current levels or above and market sentiment improves, PFIE shares could rally similarly.
Valuation Estimates
Comparable OFS Equities
Author created and Seeking Alpha
Average price/sales value was calculated based on price/sales values of comparable OFS equities selected by industry and market cap.
Seeking Alpha
PFIE's price/sales ratio is near its 10-year low. In the short term, based on the current bearish market sentiment, it may contract further. However, over the medium-to-long term, we think the energy sector sentiment will improve, and hence, price/sales could expand towards historic highs.
Market Cap and Share Price Estimates
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