The GEO Group, Inc.

NYSE:GEO 株式レポート

時価総額：US$3.0b

GEO Group 将来の成長

Future 基準チェック /06

GEO Groupの収益は年間15.1%で減少すると予測されていますが、年間収益は年間9.8%で増加すると予想されています。EPS は年間10.4%で減少すると予想されています。

主要情報

-15.1%

収益成長率

-10.35%

EPS成長率

Commercial Services 収益成長13.5%
収益成長率9.8%
将来の株主資本利益率n/a
アナリストカバレッジ

Low

最終更新日07 May 2026

今後の成長に関する最新情報

分析記事 • Aug 08

Earnings Beat: The GEO Group, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) just released its second-quarter report and things are looking bullish. It was overall...

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • 22h

GEO Group: Q1 Results Validate The Turnaround, But Policy Risks Remain

Summary The GEO Group Inc. delivered a strong Q1 '26, with 17% revenue growth, 32% EBITDA growth, and raised full-year guidance across all metrics. Despite operational strength and a robust contract backlog, GEO's valuation at $22 now reflects fair value, not a discount, given persistent policy risk. ICE contracts account for 51% of revenue, and unresolved policy risk can trigger rapid stock repricing, as seen with a 13% drop on a single headline. I rate GEO a hold, as the risk/reward at current levels lacks sufficient margin of safety despite management’s solid execution and capital allocation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
ナラティブの更新 • May 13

GEO: ICE Detention Spending And Political Scrutiny Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed their GEO Group price targets, with recent cuts such as a move to $28 from $35, mainly citing slower than expected growth following the company’s Q4 results and 2026 guidance. Analyst Commentary Recent research comments have focused on how GEO Group’s updated Q4 results and 2026 guidance feed into both growth expectations and the valuation framework that analysts are using.
ナラティブの更新 • Apr 28

GEO: ICE Detention Spending And 2026 Guidance Will Support Future Upside Potential

Analysts have trimmed their price targets on GEO Group, with reductions such as from $35 to $28, reflecting slower than anticipated growth following recent Q4 results and 2026 guidance updates. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are trimming price targets on GEO Group, but are still signaling confidence in the company’s long term execution and growth potential despite the slower than anticipated trajectory implied by Q4 results and 2026 guidance.
ナラティブの更新 • Apr 13

GEO: Slower Guidance And Leadership Shifts Set Up Future Detention Upside

Analysts have reduced GEO Group's fair value estimate to $27 from $35, reflecting updated expectations for slower growth and lower profit margins following recent guidance. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have moved to lower GEO Group's valuation anchors, pointing to slower growth expectations and pressure on profit margins after the latest quarter and 2026 guidance.
ナラティブの更新 • Mar 30

GEO: ICE Detention Spending And 2026 Guidance Will Reset Earnings Expectations

Analysts have reduced their price expectations for GEO Group, with recent updates lowering targets to $28. This reflects slower than anticipated growth following the company’s Q4 results and 2026 guidance.
ナラティブの更新 • Mar 16

GEO: ICE Detention Spending Upside Will Drive 2026 Earnings Repricing

Analysts have reduced the fair value estimate for GEO Group from $35.00 to $33.00, citing slower than anticipated growth, as reflected in recent price target cuts and updated earnings assumptions. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are framing the recent fair value and price target revisions as a recalibration after updated Q4 results and 2026 guidance, rather than a shift away from a constructive long term view on GEO Group.
ナラティブの更新 • Mar 02

GEO: ICE Detention Spending And Buybacks Will Support Path Toward $3b Revenue

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for GEO Group to $29.50 from $32.25, citing slower than anticipated growth, as reflected in recent price target cuts and updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has generally aligned with the trimmed fair value estimate, with price targets recalibrated after the company issued Q4 results and 2026 guidance that pointed to slower than previously assumed growth.
ナラティブの更新 • Feb 16

GEO: ICE Detention Spending And Leadership Shift Will Shape 2026 Earnings

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for GEO Group by $2 to $35, citing updated assumptions for growth, profitability, and a lower future P/E multiple reflected in recent Street research. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are framing the latest target changes as a recalibration rather than a shift in view on GEO Group’s underlying thesis.
ナラティブの更新 • Feb 02

GEO: Upcoming Contracts And Monitoring Programs Will Underpin 2026 Earnings Profile

Analysts have trimmed their price target on GEO Group to US$37 from US$50, citing revised growth estimates and a softer profit outlook, even as they continue to highlight potential revenue from upcoming contracts and monitoring programs. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are framing the lower US$37 price target as a reset rather than a reversal in their view on GEO Group.
ナラティブの更新 • Jan 19

GEO: Upcoming Contracts And Monitoring Will Support Path Toward $3B Revenue

Narrative Update Analysts cut their price target on GEO Group by $13 to $37, citing revised estimates that reflect slower than expected growth toward the projected $3b+ in annualized revenue from upcoming contracts and monitoring. They still expressed a positive view on all business segments, including the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program opportunity.
ナラティブの更新 • Jan 05

GEO: Upcoming Monitoring Contracts Will Drive Path Toward $3B Annualized Revenue

Analysts have modestly lowered their price target on GEO Group, trimming expectations by approximately $13 per share to reflect slower than expected growth. They are still emphasizing long term revenue potential from upcoming contracts and monitoring programs.
ナラティブの更新 • Dec 21

GEO Will Benefit From Upcoming Contracts And Monitoring Expansion By 2026

Analysts have reduced their price target on GEO Group to $37.00 from $50.00, citing slower than previously expected revenue growth and profitability, despite continued optimism about the company’s long term contract and monitoring opportunities. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts emphasize that the revised $37.00 price target still implies meaningful upside from current trading levels, arguing that the market has not fully reflected GEO Group’s multi year contract pipeline and expanding monitoring footprint in its valuation.
ナラティブの更新 • Dec 07

GEO: Upcoming Monitoring And Contract Wins Will Drive Revenue Expansion By 2026

Analysts have modestly trimmed their price target on GEO Group, reflecting a recalibration toward slower near term growth. They continue to highlight multi year contract wins and monitoring opportunities that could support the path to more than $3 billion in annualized revenue and underpin an updated fair value estimate of approximately $32.25 per share.
ナラティブの更新 • Nov 23

GEO: Upcoming Contracts Will Significantly Boost Annual Revenue By 2026

Analysts have lowered their price target for GEO Group from $34.25 to $32.25. They cite revised estimates that reflect slower-than-expected growth, although there remains continued optimism around new contract opportunities and segment performance.
分析記事 • Nov 14

GEO Group's (NYSE:GEO) Solid Profits Have Weak Fundamentals

Last week's profit announcement from The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) was underwhelming for investors, despite headline...
ナラティブの更新 • Nov 08

GEO: New Contracts Will Drive Annualized Revenue Past $3 Billion

Analysts have lowered their price target for GEO Group from $39 to $34.25 per share, citing slower-than-expected revenue growth and profit margins based on recent research updates. However, they remain optimistic about the company's long-term opportunities.
ナラティブの更新 • Sep 04

Federal Funding Will Expand ICE Facility Activations

Analyst sentiment on GEO Group is mixed, with bulls citing favorable immigration policy momentum and likely funding increases while bears flag slower growth in alternatives to detention, resulting in the consensus price target holding steady at $39.00. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts expect significant demand tailwinds for GEO Group due to major U.S. immigration policy proposals, including anticipated funding increases for detention and monitoring services.
分析記事 • Aug 08

Earnings Beat: The GEO Group, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) just released its second-quarter report and things are looking bullish. It was overall...
分析記事 • Jul 10

GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to...
分析記事 • Jun 22

Investors Will Want GEO Group's (NYSE:GEO) Growth In ROCE To Persist

If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...
分析記事 • May 14

Investors Can Find Comfort In GEO Group's (NYSE:GEO) Earnings Quality

The GEO Group, Inc.'s ( NYSE:GEO ) earnings announcement last week didn't impress shareholders. Despite the soft profit...
分析記事 • Apr 27

The GEO Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:GEO) Business Is Yet to Catch Up With Its Share Price

The GEO Group, Inc.'s ( NYSE:GEO ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.8x may not look like an appealing investment...
分析記事 • Mar 22

GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Is Experiencing Growth In Returns On Capital

What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...
Seeking Alpha • Mar 21

The GEO Group: The Stock Has Re-Priced And No Longer Offers Attractive Risk/Reward

Summary GEO Group's EBITDA declined in 2024, and missed my expectations. Refinancing in April 2024 lowered interest expenses but increased share count by 15%, diluting stock value. The market cap is $3.6 billion with an EV/EBITDA ratio over 11x, making the stock overvalued compared to my initial target. The stock no longer offers favorable risk/reward, as it missed EBITDA expectations and has a higher share count. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
分析記事 • Mar 04

The GEO Group, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

It's been a good week for The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) shareholders, because the company has just released its...
分析記事 • Feb 25

These 4 Measures Indicate That GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Is Using Debt Extensively

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...
Seeking Alpha • Feb 10

GEO Group: Shares Have Gotten Ahead Of Growth Potential

Summary GEO Group's stock surged post-Trump election but has eased back down recently. Financial stability is evident with $166 million free cash flow in YTD 2024, despite a slight decline from the previous year. Debt reduction commitment is strong, with plans to cut $150-$175 million annually, enhancing earnings and potential future dividends. Earnings growth through government contracts and debt reduction is likely, but 2025 earnings are estimated at $1.20 per share, suggesting patience for better pricing. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
分析記事 • Jan 18

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) Stock Rockets 34% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 34% gain in the last month alone...
Seeking Alpha • Jan 13

The GEO Group: Further Upside Potential From Trump's Immigration Policy

Summary In Q3 2024, The GEO Group posted flat revenue growth and generated $603 million in revenues. Margins showed varied trends, with operating margin deteriorating to 18.91% but net income margin improving to 4.31%. GEO may be in a position to support a possible increase in demand coming from any changes in immigration policy. Investors should not expect capital returns from share repurchases or dividends, as the company remains focus on deleveraging. Additionally, capacity expansion to meet demand may also affect cash liquidity. Despite GEO stock's recent rally, valuation analysis suggests that there's a potential upside of between 29.94% and 45.74% for investors to capitalize on. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
分析記事 • Dec 31

When Should You Buy The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO)?

While The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) might not have the largest market cap around , it led the NYSE gainers with a...
分析記事 • Dec 16

We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At GEO Group (NYSE:GEO)

Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? Amongst other things...
分析記事 • Dec 04

Are Investors Undervaluing The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) By 31%?

Key Insights GEO Group's estimated fair value is US$38.92 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity GEO Group's...
分析記事 • Oct 29

The GEO Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:GEO) P/E Is Still On The Mark Following 28% Share Price Bounce

The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 28% after a shaky period...
Seeking Alpha • Oct 24

GEO Group: Financial Deterioration Amid Debt Reduction Focus

Summary In 2024, GEO Group's revenue grew by 2%, driven by new contracts, despite a decline in electronic monitoring revenue and deteriorating operating margins. The potential expansion of ICE's detention beds and mandatory GPS monitoring could significantly boost GEO Group's revenue, pending congressional approval. Ultimately, the company's financial performance has been deteriorating and shows no signs of abating. Both operating margin and FCF margin have declined considerably. Valuation analysis suggests that GEO is fairly priced. There is a huge upside potential exists if the company is able to improve its growth and optimize its margins. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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新しいナラティブ • Sep 12

Calculated Contracts And Legislative Developments Fuel Growth In Managed Services And Tech Solutions

New contracts with ICE and in Australia are poised to drive revenue growth in the managed-only segment from increased contract activations.
分析記事 • Sep 05

We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At GEO Group (NYSE:GEO)

What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Firstly...

業績と収益の成長予測

NYSE:GEO - アナリストの将来予測と過去の財務データ ( )USD Millions
日付収益収益フリー・キャッシュフロー営業活動によるキャッシュ平均アナリスト数
12/31/20273,2422162253653
12/31/20262,9841623434984
3/31/20262,732273-31158N/A
12/31/20252,632254-12573N/A
9/30/20252,53223726208N/A
6/30/20252,45288131238N/A
3/31/20252,42327135230N/A
12/31/20242,42430164242N/A
9/30/20242,42436194271N/A
6/30/20242,42430202283N/A
3/31/20242,41189192266N/A
12/31/20232,41389205278N/A
9/30/20232,426103228299N/A
6/30/20232,439114148234N/A
3/31/20232,434134179269N/A
12/31/20222,377142198288N/A
9/30/20222,31465136221N/A
6/30/20222,25462188249N/A
3/31/20222,23153224280N/A
12/31/20212,25770213283N/A
9/30/20212,277126291373N/A
6/30/20212,299136291391N/A
3/31/20212,321137333438N/A
12/31/20202,350113333442N/A
9/30/20202,394139263373N/A
6/30/20202,446146263378N/A
3/31/20202,472151248367N/A
12/31/20192,478167N/A338N/A
9/30/20192,456162N/A377N/A
6/30/20192,408155N/A311N/A
3/31/20192,377151N/A304N/A
12/31/20182,331145N/A274N/A
9/30/20182,301148N/A543N/A
6/30/20182,284147N/A511N/A
3/31/20182,278141N/A403N/A
12/31/20172,263146N/A381N/A
9/30/20172,261159N/A42N/A
6/30/20172,249165N/A-16N/A
3/31/20172,220157N/A37N/A
12/31/20162,179149N/A-28N/A
9/30/20162,113143N/A19N/A
6/30/20162,029138N/A101N/A
3/31/20161,926143N/A64N/A
12/31/20151,843139N/A142N/A
9/30/20151,771133N/A149N/A
6/30/20151,759134N/A150N/A

アナリストによる今後の成長予測

収入対貯蓄率: GEOの収益は今後 3 年間で減少すると予測されています (年間-15.1% )。

収益対市場: GEOの収益は今後 3 年間で減少すると予測されています (年間-15.1% )。

高成長収益: GEOの収益は今後 3 年間で減少すると予測されています。

収益対市場: GEOの収益 ( 9.8% ) US市場 ( 11.7% ) よりも低い成長が予測されています。

高い収益成長: GEOの収益 ( 9.8% ) 20%よりも低い成長が予測されています。

一株当たり利益成長率予想

将来の株主資本利益率

将来のROE: GEOの 自己資本利益率 が 3 年後に高くなると予測されるかどうかを判断するにはデータが不十分です

成長企業の発掘

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

企業分析と財務データの現状

データ最終更新日（UTC時間）
企業分析2026/05/21 08:37
終値2026/05/21 00:00
収益2026/03/31
年間収益2025/12/31

データソース

企業分析に使用したデータはS&P Global Market Intelligence LLC のものです。本レポートを作成するための分析モデルでは、以下のデータを使用しています。データは正規化されているため、ソースが利用可能になるまでに時間がかかる場合があります。

パッケージデータタイムフレーム米国ソース例
会社財務10年
  • 損益計算書
  • キャッシュ・フロー計算書
  • 貸借対照表
アナリストのコンセンサス予想+プラス3年
  • 予想財務
  • アナリストの目標株価
市場価格30年
  • 株価
  • 配当、分割、措置
所有権10年
  • トップ株主
  • インサイダー取引
マネジメント10年
  • リーダーシップ・チーム
  • 取締役会
主な進展10年
  • 会社からのお知らせ

* 米国証券を対象とした例であり、非米国証券については、同等の規制書式および情報源を使用。

特に断りのない限り、すべての財務データは1年ごとの期間に基づいていますが、四半期ごとに更新されます。これは、TTM（Trailing Twelve Month）またはLTM（Last Twelve Month）データとして知られています。詳細はこちら。

分析モデルとスノーフレーク

本レポートを生成するために使用した分析モデルの詳細は当社のGithubページでご覧いただけます。また、レポートの使用方法に関するガイドやYoutubeのチュートリアルも掲載しています。

シンプリー・ウォールストリート分析モデルを設計・構築した世界トップクラスのチームについてご紹介します。

業界およびセクターの指標

私たちの業界とセクションの指標は、Simply Wall Stによって6時間ごとに計算されます。

アナリスト筋

The GEO Group, Inc. 4 これらのアナリストのうち、弊社レポートのインプットとして使用した売上高または利益の予想を提出したのは、 。アナリストの投稿は一日中更新されます。14

アナリスト機関
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Ryan MelikerCanaccord Genuity
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