thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaAXTRA:NCH2 株式レポート

EBIT-margin trajectory: Historical: 2.3 % → 3.6 % (FY 22/23) ​, down to – 2 % (FY 23/24) ​, back to 3 % in Q1 24/25 ​ Forecast: Gradual recovery to 4–6 % by FY 25/26, reaching 6–8 % by FY 29/30 Revenue growth: Historical: + 70 % (FY 22/23) ​, + 30 % (FY 23/24) ​, + 27 % (Q1 24/25) ​ Forecast: ~ 15 % CAGR over the next five years (FY 24/25–29/30) Five-year share-price goal: Current fair value: € 8.5–9.0 per share Five-year target: € 14–15 per share (≈ 1.9 bn EUR market cap) Enterprise value (EV) outlook (DCF-based): Revenues rising to ~ 1.8 bn EUR by FY 29/30 EBIT of ~ 145 m EUR (8 % margin) → NOPAT ~ 102 m EUR FCF margin ~ 5 % → ~ 90 m EUR FCF Terminal-value multiple: EV/FCF = 15 → TV ~ 1.35 bn EUR Discounted EV: ≈ 1.18 bn EUR + net cash 0.69 bn EUR → ≈ 1.87 bn EUR → ~ 14.8 EUR/share Top risks: execution delays, margin pressure from competition, raw-material cost swings, subsidy uncertainty, heavy capex needs Narrative Outlook Over the next five years, thyssenkrupp nucera is poised to leverage its unique position at the intersection of mature Chlor-Alkali expertise and rapid Green-Hydrogen adoption. After a transitional phase in FY 23/24 with negative margins driven by upfront investments, the company’s shift toward series-manufactured AWE modules and high-growth project backlog supports a steady margin recovery.

Key Takeaways Expanding project execution in Green hydrogen ventures and favorable EU regulations support robust revenue growth and improved margins. R&D and cost management strategies aim to boost technological leadership and maintain profitability despite potential sales slowdowns.

Key Takeaways Accelerated contract wins and rapid European infrastructure growth position the company for outsized sales, margin gains, and market leadership in green hydrogen. Strong financials and technology leadership support sustained earnings growth, recurring revenues, and resilience, making it the preferred partner for major decarbonization projects.

Key Takeaways Rapid technological shifts and intensified competition in electrolyzer manufacturing pose risks to demand, margins, and potential revenue growth. Policy, funding, and customer concentration uncertainties threaten project conversions, pipeline visibility, and long-term earnings stability.