Samsara Croissance future
Future contrôle des critères 5/6
Samsara devrait augmenter ses bénéfices et son chiffre d'affaires de 73.9% et de 16.1% par an respectivement. Le BPA devrait croître de de 72.8% par an. Le rendement des capitaux propres devrait être 22.2% dans 3 ans.
Informations clés
73.9%
Taux de croissance des bénéfices
72.78%
Taux de croissance du BPA
| Software croissance des bénéfices | 19.7% |
| Taux de croissance des recettes | 16.1% |
| Rendement futur des capitaux propres | 22.17% |
| Couverture par les analystes | Good |
| Dernière mise à jour | 15 May 2026 |
Mises à jour récentes de la croissance future
Recent updates
Nouveau récit • May 11
Samsara’s 30% ARR Growth Could Drive 70%+ Upside
Samsara is a pioneering IoT platform company focused on connecting data from physical operations such as transportation, construction, and logistics. In fiscal year 2026 (ending January 2026), Samsara’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached $1.89 billion, growing 30% year-over-year.Seeking Alpha • May 07
Samsara: A Data Moat The Market Is Mispricing After The 'SaaS Apocalypse'
Summary Samsara (IOT) is down ~50% from its all-time high on indiscriminate "SaaS Apocalypse" multiple compression, despite Q4 FY26 being the best print in its public-company life. The seat-compression narrative driving the SaaS de-rating doesn't apply here: Samsara sells to enterprise industrial operators on ROI, not to white-collar knowledge workers on seat counts. The hardware install base creates physical switching costs that pure-cloud competitors can't easily replicate, and the agentic AI layer is additive to the revenue model rather than displacing it. Valuation work points to a base case of ~$52 (+68%) on 11x EV/FY28E revenue, anchored by a catalyst stack into Q1 FY27 earnings (May 28) and the Beyond 2026 conference. Bear case ~$24 (-21%) if SaaS de-rating continues and the company doesn't beat consensus. Risk/reward at the base case is roughly 3.2:1. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Mise à jour du récit • Apr 28
IOT: Future Returns Will Reflect AI Safety Data In Connected Fleets
The analyst price target for Samsara has been refined modestly, reflecting a mix of recent target hikes and cuts that reference strong ARR growth, expanding relationships with larger customers, and views of the company as a potential AI beneficiary, while some firms reset expectations after earlier target reductions. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Samsara reflects a generally constructive tone on growth and execution, with some pullbacks in price targets as valuation expectations reset.
Mise à jour du récit • Apr 14
IOT: AI Safety Workflow Automation Will Shape Future Returns
The updated analyst price target for Samsara moves to an implied fair value of $32.57 from $30.00, as analysts highlight stronger annualized recurring revenue trends, growing traction with larger enterprise customers, and what they view as a solid position to benefit from AI driven workflow automation across a broad customer base. Analyst Commentary Street research around Samsara reflects a mix of optimism on growth metrics and AI positioning alongside more cautious views on valuation and future execution.Mise à jour du récit • Mar 30
IOT: Future Returns Will Reflect AI Safety Data Moat In Connected Fleets
Analysts made a modest upward revision to the Samsara price target to around $44, reflecting a mix of higher targets from several firms and lower targets from others. The underlying rationale centers on strong recurring revenue trends, large enterprise customer traction, and confidence in the durability of its software growth profile.Mise à jour du récit • Mar 16
IOT: Future Returns Will Reflect AI Safety Data Moat In Fleet Operations
Analysts have adjusted the Samsara fair value estimate down from $48.93 to $44.17, reflecting a mix of higher and lower Street price targets as they weigh strong recurring revenue trends, large customer momentum, and AI-related opportunities against updated growth and margin assumptions. Analyst Commentary Street research around Samsara reflects a blend of optimism on growth execution and recurring revenue, alongside some valuation and competitive caution that has led to mixed price target revisions.
Nouveau récit • Mar 06
Samsara Inc (IOT): The StreetSense Catalyst – Digitizing the Physical World in 2026.
Samsara (IOT) is currently the premier "pure-play" on the Industrial Internet of Things, trading at $35.44 as of the March 6, 2026, market close. The stock skyrocketed 19.79% today, marking its best single-day performance since its IPO, following a "triple-beat" earnings report that signaled a major inflection point in profitability.Mise à jour du récit • Mar 02
IOT: AI Safety Tools And Cautious Sector Sentiment Will Shape Returns
Samsara's analyst fair value has shifted from $35.00 to $30.00 as analysts recalibrate price targets and growth assumptions in light of recent sector research and increased focus on which software names are viewed as clearer AI beneficiaries. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Samsara has leaned more cautious, with several bearish analysts trimming price targets and emphasizing the need to reassess how clearly the company fits into the current AI narrative across software.Mise à jour du récit • Feb 16
IOT: Higher Revenue Guidance And AI Safety Tools Will Support Upside
The analyst price target for Samsara has shifted from $39 to $35, as analysts balance updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E with recent mixed Street research that includes both lowered targets and a fresh bullish initiation. Analyst Commentary The recent shift in the consensus price target to $35 sits against a backdrop of mixed Street commentary, with several bearish analysts trimming their targets while one major firm has started coverage with a bullish stance.Mise à jour du récit • Feb 02
IOT: Future Returns Will Reflect Expanding Safety And Compliance Outcomes In Fleet Operations
Analysts have trimmed their price target for Samsara to about $48.93, citing updated assumptions around modestly lower profit margin expectations, a slightly adjusted discount rate, and a very large future P/E multiple in their models. What's in the News Samsara highlighted growing use of its platform across the Food and Beverage industry, with customers using Fleet Telematics, AI Dash Cams, Asset Tracking, and Workflows to support safety, cold chain compliance, operational efficiency, and driver retention.Mise à jour du récit • Jan 19
IOT: Higher Revenue Guidance And New Safety Tools Will Support Upside
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Samsara up from US$38.00 to US$39.00, tying this shift to small tweaks in the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions. What's in the News Samsara issued earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, with expected total revenue of US$421 million to US$423 million and year on year revenue growth of 22% (Corporate guidance).Article d’analyse • Jan 10
Samsara Inc.'s (NYSE:IOT) Popularity With Investors Under Threat As Stock Sinks 25%
Samsara Inc. ( NYSE:IOT ) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month...Mise à jour du récit • Jan 05
IOT: Future Returns Will Reflect Expanding Connected Fleet Safety And Compliance Adoption
Analysts have maintained their fair value estimate for Samsara at approximately US$50.36 per share, making only minor adjustments to discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and long-term P/E assumptions. This reflects fine-tuning of their models rather than a significant change in outlook.Mise à jour du récit • Dec 20
IOT: Future Returns Will Reflect Expanding Connected Operations Platform Adoption
Analysts have nudged their price target for Samsara higher to approximately $50.36 from about $49.72, citing slightly lower perceived risk and more favorable long term valuation assumptions, despite moderating growth and margin expectations. What's in the News Samsara issued fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2026 guidance, targeting revenue of $421 million to $423 million for Q4 (22 percent year over year growth) and $1.595 billion to $1.597 billion for the year (28 percent year over year growth) (company guidance).Mise à jour du récit • Dec 06
IOT: Future Returns Will Balance ARR Momentum And Rising Competition Risk
Analysts have nudged their price target on Samsara higher by about $1.50 to roughly $49.70, citing faster net new ARR growth, offset by rising competitive risks following a recent patent ruling. Analyst Commentary Recent research suggests that sentiment on Samsara is balanced, with higher upside scenarios tied to sustained acceleration in net new ARR and downside risk linked to intensifying competition in AI driven fleet and operations software.Mise à jour du récit • Sep 19
AI-Driven Telematics Will Transform Under-Penetrated Commercial Vehicle Markets
Samsara's price target was revised upward as bullish analysts cited strong Net New ARR momentum, improved enterprise traction, robust recurring revenue growth, and expanding margins, while bears pointed to rising competition and macro risks; as a result, the consensus fair value increased slightly from $47.45 to $48.20. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight strong acceleration in Net New ARR, notably outperforming expectations with improved momentum in large enterprise accounts and resulting upward revision of revenue and free cash flow guidance.Mise à jour du récit • Sep 04
AI-Driven Telematics Will Transform Under-Penetrated Commercial Vehicle Markets
Despite ongoing digitization and innovation supporting Samsara’s long-term outlook, near-term headwinds from elongated deal cycles and macroeconomic uncertainty, along with concentrated exposure to GDP-sensitive sectors, have led analysts to maintain the consensus price target unchanged at $47.45. Analyst Commentary Ongoing digitization of physical operations and a strong pace of innovation are seen as long-term growth drivers, but near-term demand is impacted by elongating deal cycles and macroeconomic uncertainty.Seeking Alpha • Apr 22
Samsara's AI Brain Is Its Real Moat For Future Growth
Summary Samsara's unique AI and data platform, combined with advanced IoT devices, provides significant competitive advantages and operational efficiency for customers in physical operations sectors. . The company demonstrated strong fiscal 2025 results with 32% ARR growth, 25% revenue growth, and improved margins, indicating a healthy and profitable business model. . Despite trading at high multiples, Samsara's robust growth, competitive moat, and large market potential justify its valuation and support a target price of $50. . Key risks include high stock multiples, competitive pressures, growth sustainability, supply chain dependencies, and potential security breaches, but the competitive advantage outweighs these risks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Nouveau récit • Mar 19
AI-Driven Telematics Will Transform Under-Penetrated Commercial Vehicle Markets
Strong growth in recurring revenue and large enterprise customer acquisition signals future expansion opportunities and increased market share.Seeking Alpha • Mar 14
Samsara: From Explosive Growth To Growing Pains
Summary Samsara excels in AI-powered IoT solutions for fleet management, showing strong revenue growth, high ARR, and expanding gross margins. The firm’s FCF margin expanded significantly in Q4, but high SBC expenses and a lack of GAAP profitability raise concerns about efficient capital use and valuation. Key risks include potential revenue growth slowdown and challenges in upselling to existing customers, which could impact future ARR and net revenue retention. Despite strong financials and market position, Samsara's high valuation and growth uncertainties lead to a hold rating until GAAP profitability and SBC discipline improve. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 07
Samsara Q4 Earnings: Why I'm Still Bullish Despite Slowing Growth
Summary Samsara's fiscal 2026 report shows slowing growth but improved free cash flow and a strong, debt-free balance sheet, making $40 per share attractive but not a homerun. I sold IOT at $54 per share, realizing a 60% profit in 13 months; the stock has since dropped 25%, validating my exit strategy. Samsara targets large enterprises with AI-driven fleet management solutions, offering significant growth potential as businesses digitize, despite not delivering hypergrowth. At 87x forward free cash flow, Samsara is not cheap, but its expanding profit margins and strong balance sheet justify the premium valuation. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 13
Samsara: Very High Valuation And Long-Term Risks
Summary Samsara's connected fleet solutions offer high ROI, but the stock trades at a high 25 Fwd P/S with low FCF and negative margins. Despite strong data advantages, Samsara faces private competition and potential disruption from autonomous vehicles, posing significant long-term risks. The company's strategy focuses on reducing fleet costs and capturing a high number of assets to enhance data-driven AI solutions. Given the high valuation and execution risks, I rate Samsara stock a hold, acknowledging its growth potential but also its competitive and financial challenges. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaPrévisions de croissance des bénéfices et des revenus
| Date | Recettes | Les revenus | Flux de trésorerie disponible | Cash from Op | Moy. Nombre d'analystes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/31/2029 | 2,822 | 229 | 527 | 578 | 7 |
| 1/31/2028 | 2,364 | 150 | 372 | 401 | 22 |
| 1/31/2027 | 1,971 | 48 | 270 | 299 | 21 |
| 1/31/2026 | 1,619 | -9 | 207 | 236 | N/A |
| 11/1/2025 | 1,521 | -42 | 194 | 220 | N/A |
| 8/2/2025 | 1,427 | -88 | 170 | 193 | N/A |
| 5/3/2025 | 1,335 | -121 | 139 | 161 | N/A |
| 2/1/2025 | 1,249 | -155 | 111 | 132 | N/A |
| 11/2/2024 | 1,179 | -257 | 19 | 36 | N/A |
| 8/3/2024 | 1,095 | -265 | -4 | 12 | N/A |
| 5/4/2024 | 1,014 | -275 | -12 | 1 | N/A |
| 2/3/2024 | 937 | -287 | -23 | -12 | N/A |
| 10/28/2023 | 848 | -227 | 11 | 26 | N/A |
| 7/29/2023 | 780 | -240 | -21 | 1 | N/A |
| 4/29/2023 | 714 | -244 | -69 | -44 | N/A |
| 1/28/2023 | 653 | -247 | -136 | -103 | N/A |
| 10/29/2022 | 592 | -447 | -184 | -147 | N/A |
| 7/30/2022 | 536 | -420 | -205 | -175 | N/A |
| 4/30/2022 | 483 | -388 | -210 | -183 | N/A |
| 1/29/2022 | 428 | -355 | -191 | -171 | N/A |
| 10/30/2021 | 379 | -138 | -169 | -157 | N/A |
| 1/30/2021 | 250 | -220 | -204 | -172 | N/A |
| 2/1/2020 | 120 | -225 | -223 | -193 | N/A |
Prévisions de croissance des analystes
Taux de revenus par rapport au taux d'épargne: IOT devrait devenir rentable au cours des 3 prochaines années, ce qui est considéré comme une croissance plus rapide que le taux d'épargne ( 3.5% ).
Bénéfices vs marché: IOT devrait devenir rentable au cours des 3 prochaines années, ce qui est considéré comme une croissance supérieure à la moyenne du marché.
Croissance élevée des bénéfices: IOT devrait devenir rentable dans les 3 prochaines années.
Chiffre d'affaires vs marché: Le chiffre d'affaires de IOT ( 16.1% par an) devrait croître plus rapidement que le marché US ( 11.7% par an).
Croissance élevée des revenus: Le chiffre d'affaires de IOT ( 16.1% par an) devrait croître plus lentement que 20% par an.
Prévisions de croissance du bénéfice par action
Rendement futur des capitaux propres
ROE futur: Le retour sur capitaux propres de IOT devrait être élevé dans 3 ans ( 22.2 %)
Découvrir les entreprises en croissance
Analyse de l'entreprise et données financières
| Données | Dernière mise à jour (heure UTC) |
|---|---|
| Analyse de l'entreprise | 2026/05/18 19:33 |
| Cours de l'action en fin de journée | 2026/05/15 00:00 |
| Les revenus | 2026/01/31 |
| Revenus annuels | 2026/01/31 |
Sources de données
Les données utilisées dans notre analyse de l'entreprise proviennent de S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. Les données suivantes sont utilisées dans notre modèle d'analyse pour générer ce rapport. Les données sont normalisées, ce qui peut entraîner un délai avant que la source ne soit disponible.
| Paquet | Données | Cadre temporel | Exemple de source américaine * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finances de l'entreprise | 10 ans |
| |
| Estimations consensuelles des analystes | +3 ans |
|
|
| Prix du marché | 30 ans |
| |
| Propriété | 10 ans |
| |
| Gestion | 10 ans |
| |
| Principaux développements | 10 ans |
|
* Exemple pour les titres américains ; pour les titres non américains, des formulaires réglementaires et des sources équivalentes sont utilisés.
Sauf indication contraire, toutes les données financières sont basées sur une période annuelle mais mises à jour trimestriellement. C'est ce qu'on appelle les données des douze derniers mois (TTM) ou des douze derniers mois (LTM). En savoir plus.
Modèle d'analyse et flocon de neige
Les détails du modèle d’analyse utilisé pour générer ce rapport sont disponibles sur notre page Github; nous proposons également des guides expliquant comment utiliser nos rapports et des tutoriels sur Youtube.
Découvrez l'équipe de classe mondiale qui a conçu et construit le modèle d'analyse Simply Wall St.
Indicateurs de l'industrie et du secteur
Nos indicateurs de secteur et de section sont calculés toutes les 6 heures par Simply Wall St. Les détails de notre processus sont disponibles sur Github.
Sources des analystes
Samsara Inc. est couverte par 23 analystes. 22 de ces analystes ont soumis les estimations de revenus ou de bénéfices utilisées comme données d'entrée dans notre rapport. Les soumissions des analystes sont mises à jour tout au long de la journée.
| Analyste | Institution |
|---|---|
| Elisha Simonetti | Arete Research Services LLP |
| Nay Soe Naing | Berenberg |
| Daniel Jester | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |