Update shared on19 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 1.58%Samsara's price target was revised upward as bullish analysts cited strong Net New ARR momentum, improved enterprise traction, robust recurring revenue growth, and expanding margins, while bears pointed to rising competition and macro risks; as a result, the consensus fair value increased slightly from $47.45 to $48.20.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts highlight strong acceleration in Net New ARR, notably outperforming expectations with improved momentum in large enterprise accounts and resulting upward revision of revenue and free cash flow guidance.
- Durable annual recurring revenue growth of 30% and notable EBIT margin expansion signal operational resilience, despite lowering of short-term comps due to recent share pullback and sector volatility.
- Large opportunities cited in automation and digitization of physical operations, as well as increasing customer interest in network effects, asset tags, and equipment monitoring, underpin optimism for sustained long-term growth.
- Bearish analysts emphasize increased competition risks following an unfavorable patent ruling, exposing Samsara to AI-driven platform rivals and potentially eroding its competitive moat.
- Bearish analysts also cite macro-related headwinds, such as elongated sales cycles, a GDP-sensitive end-market mix, and the ongoing dependence on connected fleet operations, dampening near-term conviction.
What's in the News
- First Student is equipping its ~46,000-vehicle fleet with Samsara’s AI-powered safety and performance technology, enhancing fleet safety, efficiency, and driver support through the HALO platform.
- Samsara provided Q3, Q4, and full-year 2026 revenue guidance, expecting $1.547–$1.555 billion in annual revenue, reflecting 26% year-over-year growth.
- Samsara launched a Pre-Delivery Installation program, enabling OEM-installed telematics and cameras on new Daimler Truck North America and Fontaine Modification vehicles, accelerating customer fleet onboarding.
- Samsara partnered with HERE Technologies to integrate advanced mapping and geolocation into its platform, improving fleet routing, dispatch, and real-time visibility.
- Samsara unveiled over a dozen new AI-powered solutions, including advanced safety tools, connected wearables, and next-generation routing, aiming to drive smarter and more efficient physical operations.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Samsara
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $47.45 to $48.20.
- The Net Profit Margin for Samsara has fallen from 13.09% to 12.43%.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Samsara has risen slightly from 21.2% per annum to 22.1% per annum.
Disclaimer
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