Update shared on 20 Dec 2025
Fair value Increased 1.30%Analysts have nudged their price target for Samsara higher to approximately $50.36 from about $49.72, citing slightly lower perceived risk and more favorable long term valuation assumptions, despite moderating growth and margin expectations.
What's in the News
- Samsara issued fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2026 guidance, targeting revenue of $421 million to $423 million for Q4 (22 percent year over year growth) and $1.595 billion to $1.597 billion for the year (28 percent year over year growth) (company guidance).
- The company launched Commercial Navigation in the U.S., offering commercial vehicle specific turn by turn directions that account for height, weight, hazmat, and road restrictions. The service is integrated directly into the Samsara Driver App to boost safety and efficiency (product announcement).
- CLEAN Linen and Workwear reported a 38 percent reduction in collisions, 14 percent improvement in miles per gallon, and a 97 percent reduction in hours driven over the speed limit after deploying Samsara Vehicle Telematics and AI Dash Cams across its 120 vehicle fleet (client announcement).
- Samsara expanded its compliance and safety offering in Europe with Smart Compliance, Weather Intelligence, Samsara Avatar AI coaching, and other tools aimed at simplifying tachograph compliance, scaling driver training, and improving fleet wide risk management (product announcement).
- The company deepened its European compliance capabilities via a partnership with AUMOVIO’s VDO brand, integrating VDO infringement rules across 17 countries to help fleets manage tachograph related violations within a single platform (client announcement).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly, moving from approximately $49.72 to about $50.36 per share.
- Discount Rate has edged down marginally, decreasing from roughly 8.47 percent to about 8.43 percent, indicating slightly lower perceived risk.
- Revenue Growth Assumptions have moderated modestly, shifting from about 22.7 percent to roughly 21.7 percent.
- Net Profit Margin Outlook has been reduced significantly, falling from around 12.7 percent to about 1.3 percent.
- Future P/E Multiple has increased sharply, rising from roughly 110 times to about 1,074 times, implying a much higher valuation multiple on projected earnings.
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