Alcoa Croissance future
Future contrôle des critères 0/6
Alcoa devrait augmenter ses bénéfices et son chiffre d'affaires de 0.8% et de 0.8% par an respectivement. Le BPA devrait croître de diminuer de 2.2% par an. Le rendement des capitaux propres devrait être 13.4% dans 3 ans.
Informations clés
0.8%
Taux de croissance des bénéfices
-2.23%
Taux de croissance du BPA
| Metals and Mining croissance des bénéfices | 10.5% |
| Taux de croissance des recettes | 0.8% |
| Rendement futur des capitaux propres | 13.37% |
| Couverture par les analystes | Good |
| Dernière mise à jour | 18 Sep 2026 |
Mises à jour récentes de la croissance future
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Sep 10
Alcoa: Record Margins Meet Cyclical Realities
Summary Alcoa Corporation (AA) remains a Hold, with a price target 14-15% below current levels due to cyclical risks and earnings pressure. Q2 2026 delivered record revenues and EPS, but missed consensus estimates and highlighted operational divergence between Aluminum and Alumina segments. Upcoming South32 asset acquisition will boost alumina capacity by 53%, but elevated aluminum prices and energy costs threaten future margins and ROIC. Consensus expects FY2027 EPS of $5.80 (8.75x P/E), but mean reversion in aluminum prices and rising power costs could drive further downside. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Mise à jour du récit • Aug 26
AA: New Gallium Project And Supply Headwinds Will Likely Cap Upside
Analysts have reduced their price target for Alcoa to about $49.70 from roughly $53.99. This reflects updated views on softer revenue growth, a higher discount rate and a stronger profit margin outlook that supports a lower future P/E assumption.
Mise à jour du récit • Aug 12
AA: Long Term Outlook Will Benefit From Wharf 17 Expansion Investment
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Alcoa slightly lower from $82.00 to $80.00, citing updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations. What’s in the News for Alcoa Alcoa updated its 2026 operating guidance, with alumina production now projected between 9.5 and 9.6 million metric tons and alumina shipments between 11.5 and 11.6 million metric tons, citing lower output at the Pinjarra refinery due to gas supply disruptions associated with Cyclone Narelle.
Mise à jour du récit • Jul 29
AA: Higher Margin Outlook And Gallium Expansion Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have revised their price target on Alcoa to $62.98 from $82.25 as updated assumptions reflect lower revenue growth expectations, along with a higher discount rate, partially offset by improved profit margin estimates and a reduced future P/E multiple. What's in the News for Alcoa Alcoa and its government partners in Australia, Japan, and the United States approved construction of a new gallium production facility at the Wagerup alumina refinery in Western Australia, creating an additional source of a key material used in semiconductors and defense technologies.Mise à jour du récit • Jul 15
AA: South32 Asset Deal Will Support Stronger Long Term Outlook
Analysts have adjusted their price target for Alcoa from $127.34 to $82.00, reflecting updated assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E. What's in the News Alcoa agreed to acquire South32’s bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets across Australia, Brazil, and South Africa in a transaction valued at about US$4.1b in upfront cash and stock, plus a potential US$750 million contingent value right, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals, with closing targeted for the first half of 2027.Mise à jour du récit • Jul 01
AA: Acquisition And Secured Power Supply Will Support Stronger Long Term Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target for Alcoa from $92.00 to $127.34, citing updated assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple. What’s in the News for Alcoa Alcoa agreed to acquire South32’s bauxite mine, alumina refinery, and aluminum smelter interests for about US$4.1b.Mise à jour du récit • Jun 17
AA: Higher Margin Outlook And Aluminum Price Tailwinds Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have raised their Alcoa price target from $73.87 to $82.25, citing updated assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E. What’s in the News for Alcoa Alcoa shares dropped nearly 10% after the company revised its Q2 outlook, citing a projected US$60 million unfavorable impact in the Alumina segment from higher production costs at the Pinjarra refinery, cyclone related disruptions, and increased energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions near the Strait of Hormuz.Article d’analyse • Jun 16
Alcoa (AA) Stock Could Be 14.9% Undervalued on Its Decarbonization Growth Narrative
Alcoa (AA) has drawn renewed attention after recent share price moves, with the stock last closing at $62.87. Investors are weighing this level against the company’s current earnings profile, growth metrics, and broader aluminum exposure. See our latest analysis for Alcoa. Recent weakness in Alcoa’s share price, with a 1-day share price return that declined 2.01% and a 7-day share price return that declined 13.18%, sits against a year-to-date share price return of 11.20% and a 1-year total...Mise à jour du récit • Jun 03
AA: Supply Disruptions And Cost Pressures Will Likely Still Fail To Justify Pricing
Analysts have lifted their price target on Alcoa from about $46.37 to roughly $53.99, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and a slightly higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News UBS upgraded Alcoa to Buy and lifted its price target to $80, citing expectations of prolonged aluminum supply disruptions in the Middle East and a projected global supply gap by 2026.Mise à jour du récit • May 13
AA: Production Stability And Higher Margins Will Support Stronger Long Term Outlook
Analysts have raised Alcoa's fair value estimate from $58.00 to $92.00, citing updated assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple as the main factors supporting the higher price target. What's in the News Alcoa reported first quarter 2026 production results, with Bauxite at 9.1 mdmt compared with 9.5 mdmt a year earlier, Alumina at 2,355 kmt in line with the prior year, and Aluminum at 607 kmt compared with 564 kmt a year earlier (Key Developments).Mise à jour du récit • Apr 29
AA: Higher Margin Outlook And Production Plans Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have lifted their price target for Alcoa to $73.87 from $72.48, reflecting updated expectations around potential revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower assumed future P/E multiple. What's in the News Alcoa reported first quarter 2026 production results, with Bauxite output of 9.1 mdmt compared with 9.5 mdmt a year earlier, Alumina production of 2,355 kmt in line with the prior year, and Aluminum production of 607 kmt compared with 564 kmt a year ago (Key Developments).Mise à jour du récit • Apr 15
AA: Updated Output Plans And Margins Will Shape Measured Future Returns
Analysts have revised their price target for Alcoa to approximately $72, up from about $67, citing updated assumptions around fair value, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E levels as key drivers of the change. What's in the News Alcoa reported fourth quarter 2025 production with Bauxite at 9.4 mdmt versus 9.3 mdmt a year earlier, Alumina at 2,481 kmt versus 2,390 kmt, and Aluminum at 604 kmt versus 571 kmt (Announcement of Operating Results).Mise à jour du récit • Mar 31
AA: Higher Output And Trading Volumes Will Likely Still Fail To Justify Pricing
Analysts now place Alcoa's price target at about $46.37, compared with the prior $38.00. This reflects updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margin, discount rate, and future P/E levels.Mise à jour du récit • Mar 17
AA: Production Plans And Margin Expectations Will Guide Balanced Future Returns
Analysts have adjusted their fair value estimate for Alcoa to $66.92 from $61.42, reflecting updated assumptions on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E expectations. What's in the News Alcoa issued production guidance for 2026, targeting total Alumina segment production between 9.7 and 9.9 million metric tons, with shipments between 11.8 and 12.0 million metric tons, reflecting the role of trading volumes and externally sourced alumina in meeting customer contracts (company guidance).Mise à jour du récit • Mar 03
AA: Production Guidance And Margin Assumptions Will Shape Balanced Future Returns
Analysts have nudged their Alcoa price target slightly higher to $61.42 from $61.08, reflecting updated assumptions around the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and a modestly higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Alcoa issued 2026 production guidance for its Alumina segment, with expected production between 9.7 million and 9.9 million metric tons and shipments between 11.8 million and 12.0 million metric tons, reflecting the use of trading volumes and externally sourced alumina to meet customer contracts (Corporate guidance).Mise à jour du récit • Feb 16
AA: Higher Margins And Production Will Still Likely Fail To Justify Pricing
Analysts have raised their price target on Alcoa from $33.00 to $38.00, citing updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth expectations, profit margin outlook, and a revised future P/E multiple. What's in the News Alcoa issued production guidance for 2025 and outlined expectations for 2026, with the Alumina segment projected to produce between 9.7 and 9.9 million metric tons in 2026, and shipments expected between 11.8 and 12.0 million metric tons, reflecting a mix of internal production, trading volumes, and externally sourced alumina to meet customer contracts (company guidance).Mise à jour du récit • Feb 02
AA: Low Carbon Smelting And Margin Assumptions Will Shape Balanced Future Returns
Analysts have raised their price target on Alcoa from US$45.42 to US$61.08. They cite updates in their models that reflect revised assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples.Mise à jour du récit • Jan 19
AA: Future Decarbonization Benefits Will Likely Fail To Justify Current Pricing
Analysts have lifted their price target on Alcoa from US$27.00 to US$33.00, pointing to updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and a lower future P/E as key drivers of the change. What's in the News Alcoa, Ball Corporation and Unilever announced the first use of ELYSIS carbon free smelting technology in consumer personal and home care packaging, using aluminum that eliminates direct smelting greenhouse gas emissions and generates oxygen instead of CO2 (Key Developments).Mise à jour du récit • Jan 05
AA: Carbon Free Smelting And Energy Moves Will Support Balanced Long Term Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target on Alcoa from approximately $42 to $58 per share, citing expectations for faster revenue growth, significantly higher profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple. Together, these factors support a meaningfully higher fair value estimate.Article d’analyse • Dec 30
Alcoa Corporation's (NYSE:AA) Share Price Boosted 29% But Its Business Prospects Need A Lift Too
Despite an already strong run, Alcoa Corporation ( NYSE:AA ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 29% in the...Mise à jour du récit • Dec 20
AA: Low Carbon Smelting Shift Will Likely Pressure Future Returns
Narrative Update on Alcoa Analysts have raised their price target on Alcoa by approximately 10 percent to around 45 dollars per share, citing expectations for modestly stronger revenue growth, materially improved profit margins, and a more attractive forward earnings multiple. What's in the News Alcoa, Ball and Unilever unveiled the first consumer packaging using ELYSIS carbon free smelting technology, combining low carbon primary aluminum with recycled content to create one of the lowest footprint aerosol cans on the market (company announcement).Mise à jour du récit • Dec 06
AA: Low Carbon Initiatives And Portfolio Reshaping Will Define Future Performance
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Alcoa from approximately 39.54 dollars to 41.29 dollars, citing higher long term revenue growth expectations and a richer future earnings multiple, despite a lower projected profit margin and slightly higher discount rate. What's in the News Alcoa, Ball and Unilever unveiled the first consumer packaging using ELYSIS carbon free smelting technology in low carbon aerosol cans ahead of COP30, highlighting a major step toward decarbonized aluminum supply chains (Key Developments).Mise à jour du récit • Nov 22
AA: Measured Shifts in Operations and Partnerships Will Shape Future Performance
Narrative Update on Alcoa: Analyst Price Target Adjustment Analysts have slightly lowered their fair value estimate for Alcoa, revising the price target from $39.63 to $39.54 per share. This change reflects modest adjustments to outlooks on discount rate and growth assumptions.Mise à jour du récit • Nov 05
AA: Future Investments and Facility Upgrades Will Drive Shareholder Value
Analysts have raised their price target for Alcoa slightly. The new target is $39.63, up from $39.21.Mise à jour du récit • Oct 22
Analysts Raise Alcoa Price Target as New Partnerships and Plant Closure Drive Valuation Upward
Alcoa's analyst price target has increased from $36.64 to $39.21. This change reflects improved revenue growth and profit margin projections according to analysts.Mise à jour du récit • Oct 08
Tariff Volatility And Recycled Materials Will Erode Primary Aluminum Margins
Analysts have raised their price target for Alcoa from $34.09 to $36.64. They cite improved forecast profit margins and lower expected future price-to-earnings ratios as key factors in their updated outlook.Mise à jour du récit • Sep 24
Tariff Volatility And Recycled Materials Will Erode Primary Aluminum Margins
Despite a notable downgrade in revenue growth expectations, an improved net profit margin has offset this impact, resulting in a slight increase in Alcoa's analyst price target from $33.55 to $34.09. What's in the News Held Analyst/Investor Day event.
Nouveau récit • Apr 24
Australia Refinancing And San Ciprián Restart Will Support Stable Operations
Strategic refinancing and joint ventures are expected to enhance cash flow, reduce interest expenses, and stabilize revenue.Seeking Alpha • Apr 18
Alcoa's Q1 2025 Review: Tariff Hurts, But Game Isn't Over
Summary Alcoa's stock is down ~75% from its ATH. Tariff wars and economic uncertainty added fuel to the fire, but Q1 2025 results show strong net income and adjusted EBITDA growth. Despite a 3% QoQ revenue dip, net income more than doubled to $548 million, with adjusted net income beating Street estimates at $568 million. Alcoa refinanced $1 billion in debt, extending maturities and lowering interest expenses, aiming for an adjusted net debt range of $1-1.5 billion. Tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports will significantly impact Alcoa's costs, with a projected unfavorable impact of ~$90 million in Q2 2025. Because current tariffs hinder construction accessibility and will likely be revised (perhaps favorably for Alcoa), the present undervaluation of AA stock provides significant upside potential. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 30
Alcoa And The Aluminum Market: A Point Of Tension And Growth
Summary Alcoa's financial results have been volatile, with losses in 2022-2023 and profits in 2024 due to aluminum price recovery and strategic asset restructuring. The company focuses on high-quality assets, vertical integration, and technological advancements, aiming for efficiency and sustainability without aggressive expansion. Despite positive developments, Alcoa remains vulnerable to raw material price fluctuations and high energy costs, impacting its financial stability. Alcoa shares are fairly valued at $34; I recommend considering a purchase closer to $25, assigning a "Hold" rating due to limited upside. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaPrévisions de croissance des bénéfices et des revenus
| Date | Recettes | Les revenus | Flux de trésorerie disponible | Cash from Op | Moy. Nombre d'analystes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 14,186 | 2,040 | 1,420 | 2,785 | 8 |
| 12/31/2027 | 15,094 | 1,761 | 1,292 | 2,031 | 11 |
| 12/31/2026 | 14,850 | 1,662 | 915 | 1,507 | 11 |
| 6/30/2026 | 13,603 | 1,272 | 352 | 1,051 | N/A |
| 3/31/2026 | 12,655 | 1,027 | 287 | 931 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 12,831 | 1,141 | 567 | 1,185 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 12,868 | 1,129 | 519 | 1,063 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 12,777 | 989 | 582 | 1,121 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 12,665 | 847 | 348 | 920 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 11,895 | 56 | 42 | 622 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 11,004 | -293 | -194 | 405 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 10,702 | -550 | -267 | 331 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 10,480 | -672 | -518 | 31 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 10,551 | -651 | -440 | 91 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 10,619 | -896 | -503 | 11 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 10,868 | -1,474 | -421 | 76 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 11,828 | -823 | 136 | 625 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 12,451 | -123 | 342 | 822 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 13,128 | -120 | 807 | 1,269 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 13,386 | 963 | 1,153 | 1,570 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 12,575 | 723 | 559 | 948 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 12,152 | 429 | 530 | 920 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 11,204 | 817 | 45 | 393 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 10,460 | 431 | -223 | 116 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 9,775 | -75 | 153 | 490 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 9,286 | -170 | 41 | 394 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 9,330 | -469 | 242 | 618 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 9,532 | -641 | 245 | 634 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 10,095 | -846 | N/A | 428 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 10,433 | -1,125 | N/A | 686 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 11,341 | -771 | N/A | 959 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 12,164 | -556 | N/A | 1,073 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 13,032 | -144 | N/A | 561 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 13,403 | 250 | N/A | 448 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 13,233 | 3 | N/A | 368 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 12,807 | 122 | N/A | 464 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 12,087 | 187 | N/A | 1,205 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 11,652 | 279 | N/A | 1,224 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 11,015 | 288 | N/A | 1,008 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 10,380 | 165 | N/A | 515 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 9,844 | 35 | N/A | 122 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 9,318 | -400 | N/A | -311 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 9,232 | -1,101 | N/A | -497 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 9,582 | -1,215 | N/A | -77 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 10,223 | -1,239 | N/A | 254 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 11,199 | -863 | N/A | 875 | N/A |
Prévisions de croissance des analystes
Taux de revenus par rapport au taux d'épargne: La croissance des bénéfices prévue de AA ( 0.8% par an) est inférieure au taux d'épargne ( 3.7% ).
Bénéfices vs marché: Les bénéfices de AA ( 0.8% par an) devraient croître plus lentement que le marché US ( 17.4% par an).
Croissance élevée des bénéfices: Les bénéfices de AA devraient augmenter, mais pas de manière significative.
Chiffre d'affaires vs marché: Le chiffre d'affaires de AA ( 0.8% par an) devrait croître plus lentement que le marché de US ( 13.6% par an).
Croissance élevée des revenus: Le chiffre d'affaires de AA ( 0.8% par an) devrait croître plus lentement que 20% par an.
Prévisions de croissance du bénéfice par action
Rendement futur des capitaux propres
ROE futur: Le retour sur capitaux propres de AA devrait être faible dans 3 ans ( 13.4 %).
Découvrir les entreprises en croissance
Analyse de l'entreprise et données financières
| Données | Dernière mise à jour (heure UTC) |
|---|---|
| Analyse de l'entreprise | 2026/09/20 00:41 |
| Cours de l'action en fin de journée | 2026/09/18 00:00 |
| Les revenus | 2026/06/30 |
| Revenus annuels | 2025/12/31 |
Sources de données
Les données utilisées dans notre analyse de l'entreprise proviennent de S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. Les données suivantes sont utilisées dans notre modèle d'analyse pour générer ce rapport. Les données sont normalisées, ce qui peut entraîner un délai avant que la source ne soit disponible.
| Paquet | Données | Cadre temporel | Exemple de source américaine * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finances de l'entreprise | 10 ans |
| |
| Estimations consensuelles des analystes | +3 ans |
|
|
| Prix du marché | 30 ans |
| |
| Propriété | 10 ans |
| |
| Gestion | 10 ans |
| |
| Principaux développements | 10 ans |
|
* Exemple pour les titres américains ; pour les titres non américains, des formulaires réglementaires et des sources équivalentes sont utilisés.
Sauf indication contraire, toutes les données financières sont basées sur une période annuelle mais mises à jour trimestriellement. C'est ce qu'on appelle les données des douze derniers mois (TTM) ou des douze derniers mois (LTM). En savoir plus.
Modèle d'analyse et flocon de neige
Les détails du modèle d’analyse utilisé pour générer ce rapport sont disponibles sur notre page Github ; nous proposons également des guides sur la façon d’utiliser nos rapports et des tutoriels sur YouTube.
Découvrez l' qui a conçu et construit le modèle d'analyse Simply Wall St.
Indicateurs de l'industrie et du secteur
Nos indicateurs de secteur et de section sont calculés toutes les 6 heures par Simply Wall St. Les détails de notre processus sont disponibles sur Github.
Sources des analystes
Alcoa Corporation est couverte par 28 analystes. 11 de ces analystes ont soumis les estimations de revenus ou de bénéfices utilisées comme données d'entrée dans notre rapport. Les soumissions des analystes sont mises à jour tout au long de la journée.
| Analyste | Institution |
|---|---|
| David Coleman | Argus Research Company |
| Dale Koenders | Barrenjoey Markets Pty Limited |
| Paretosh Misra | Berenberg |