Ares Capital Croissance future
Future contrôle des critères 1/6
Ares Capital devrait augmenter ses bénéfices et son chiffre d'affaires de 9.8% et de 1.6% par an respectivement. Le BPA devrait croître de de 9.3% par an. Le rendement des capitaux propres devrait être 9.9% dans 3 ans.
Informations clés
9.8%
Taux de croissance des bénéfices
9.26%
Taux de croissance du BPA
| Capital Markets croissance des bénéfices | 11.7% |
| Taux de croissance des recettes | 1.6% |
| Rendement futur des capitaux propres | 9.94% |
| Couverture par les analystes | Good |
| Dernière mise à jour | 18 May 2026 |
Mises à jour récentes de la croissance future
Recent updates
Ares Capital's Financial Performance Likely Remains Trapped
Summary Ares Capital faces challenges amid a weakening investment market, impacting both trading and financial fundamentals. ARCC's performance appears constrained, with charts and timing signaling limited near-term upside. Investors should closely monitor ARCC's response to ongoing market softness and potential shifts in fundamentals. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital Q1 Preview: Beware Of Warning Signs In Credit Markets
Summary There are warning signs in the private credit. Ares Capital faces risks due to high exposure to vulnerable sectors like healthcare and software, rising interest receivables. Refinancing challenges in a higher-for-longer rates environment and mixed recession signals further exacerbate concerns. In the upcoming Q1 FY25 earnings report, portfolio quality metrics and commentary on default risks, as well as implications in a recession, are key monitorables. On a 1-yr fwd P/E basis, ARCC appears relatively overvalued compared to peers, trading at a higher than usual premium vs. the overall BDC's sector median valuations. Relative technical analysis suggests a sideways to downward bias vs the S&P 500, and more of a bearish outlook vs the BIZD BDC Income ETF, implying underperformance ahead. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: The Premium Is Gone And It Is Time To Play On The Strengths
Summary It has not been a good year for ARCC. This gives a fruitful ground for the skeptics to come in. However, I am still bullish on ARCC. In the article, I explain why ARCC could be a clear beneficiary from the increased risks in the system. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: A Great BDC, But This Isn't The Moment
Summary Ares Capital Corporation is a leading BDC with a strong track record, conservative underwriting, and a high dividend yield, making it a reliable option among BDCs. Despite not-bad 10-K results, current economic uncertainties, recession fears, and geopolitical tensions make it an unattractive time to invest in ARCC. ARCC's historical performance during crises shows significant drops, highlighting its sensitivity to economic downturns, making it risky in the current macro environment. I recommend holding ARCC for current investors due to its stable dividends but advise potential new investors to wait until the economic situation stabilizes. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: Buy The Dip
Summary Ares Capital offers a compelling 9% yield, supported by strong portfolio fundamentals, a solid balance sheet, and disciplined investments in first lien senior secured debt. ARCC's recent price dip presents a great buying opportunity, with a price-to-book value of 1.07x, sitting well within its historical range. The recent drop in price presents an attractive opportunity to layer into the stock at a good valuation and high yield. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: Wait For A Drop (Rating Downgrade)
Summary Ares Capital achieved its highest portfolio value in Q4’24, driven by strong net investment income and robust demand for new net originations. Despite a slight increase in the non-accrual percentage, Ares Capital maintained excellent balance sheet quality and delivered a well-supported dividend with a 1.15X coverage ratio. The BDC trades at a price-to-NAV ratio of 1.18X, making shares slightly overvalued, in my opinion. Potential risks include a decline in interest income due to expected federal fund rate cuts in 2025, impacting the BDC's variable-rate loan strategy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaMy Dividend Horse BDC Yields 8%: Ares Capital
Summary Ares Capital is one of my oldest holdings – ARCC provides massive income and strong total returns. The value you unlock from your holdings over time can massively outweigh the price you pay to buy shares. The mistake many make is being too short-sighted. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital's Yields Are Shrinking (Rating Downgrade)
Summary My bullish stance on Ares Capital has outperformed the S&P 500, but I am adopting a more cautious stance after Q4 FY24 results. Ares Capital is growing its investment book by outperforming peers in deal activity, particularly through larger disbursements to top borrowers. Leading indicators suggest headwinds to net investment income in Q1 FY25 as yields and investment spreads shrink. Basel III Endgame deregulations for banks are a looming risk that can increase competition for ARCC and the broader BDC sector. ARCC's valuations seem stretched, as it is trading near the top of its historical valuation range. The bullish momentum on ARCC vs. the S&P 500 is also starting to slow down near monthly resistance. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: Turning To Hold On My Top BDC Position
Summary A lot has changed since the last time I covered ARCC (interest rates, new quarterly data, valuation), leaving investors wondering whether it's still a 'buy'. Last year, I made ARCC my largest BDC holding. I have a great respect for its management and strong portfolio showcasing low non-accruals, diversification, solid equity position, and resilience. ARCC's regular dividend coverage is not as high as in the case of some of its peers (sensitivity analysis provided), but ARCC is likely to somewhat offset that risk. Due to concerns regarding my BDC portfolio diversification and ARCC's margin of safety, I downgraded my rating to 'hold'. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: Bullish Due To Higher Deal Activity
Summary Deal activity is growing both in number and average size. The backlog and pipeline numbers are also at record highs. A higher floating rate debt mix positions ARCC well for rate cuts ahead in 2025. Valuations are at a small premium vs BDC peers, but it may be justified given ARCC's market-leading position amid a positive deal flow environment. On ARCC vs SPX 500, buyers are in accumulation and may be ready to launch up soon, leading to outperformance. It is important to track the tradeoffs between deal signing volumes, investment yields and portfolio grades to evaluate ARCC execution quality. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: BDC Market Leader That You Shouldn't Miss Buying
Summary Ares Capital stock has continued to outperform its BDC peers, underscoring its market leadership. ARCC's solid core EPS payout ratio and low non-accrual rates assure dividend sustainability and robust earnings capabilities. Income investors seeking potential capital appreciation should find ARCC's bullish proposition attractive. I explain why BDC investors shouldn't miss adding ARCC as one of their core holdings in their income portfolio. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: A Magnificent 9% Yielding Cash Cow
Summary Ares Capital improved its high balance sheet quality in Q3 and supports its dividend with NII, making it a reliable high-yield investment. The BDC's portfolio grew with $3.9B in gross commitments, showing 145% Y/Y growth. The non-accrual percentage dropped Q/Q to just 0.6% of investments (FV). Trading at a P/NAV ratio of 1.1X, ARCC is slightly more expensive than in the last three years, but the BDC remains a solid long-term investment. Ares Capital's consistent dividend coverage and low non-accrual percentage translate to a strong value proposition for income investors. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: A Strong Q3 With Income Peak Likely Behind Us
Summary Ares Capital delivered a solid 3.3% total NAV return, trades at a 9.2% dividend yield, and has a core earnings yield of 11.1%. The NAV rose to a record $19.77, marking the seventh consecutive quarterly rise, driven by retained income and unrealized appreciation. ARCC's portfolio is highly diversified with 535 companies, focusing on larger firms, and recently acquiring Riverside Credit Solutions to balance lending. The valuation is somewhat rich to its historical stance against the sector. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: One Of The Safest High-Yielders Your Money Can Buy (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Although higher interest rates serve as catalysts for BDCs, 2024 has been somewhat difficult for the sector due to decreased investment activity. With higher for longer rates, this has not only placed downward pressure on their borrowers, it has also led to less M&A activity. I suspect ARCC's management team will successfully navigate any economic uncertainty should this rise unexpectedly due to their strong liquidity position and conservatism. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: 8.9% Yield Standout Among BDC Peers
Summary If you like big-yield investments (7% to 12%+ yields), Business Development Companies offer a uniquely attractive opportunity because of their business models and tax advantages. We share a wide range of comparative data on over 25 big-yield BDCs, including a special focus on industry leader, Ares Capital (the largest public BDC by market cap). After reviewing ARCC in detail (including a variety of reasons why it is attractive, plus multiple big risk factors to consider), we conclude with our strong opinion on investing. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: Still Cheap Even As The Fed Shifts Down
Summary Ares Capital is well-positioned even as the Fed is expected to lower its interest rates through 2025. ARCC's core EPS has likely peaked, but a potentially improved M&A environment and increased investment activity could spur a re-rating. Valuations remain attractive, with a forward dividend yield of nearly 9%. Income investors reallocating from cash should find them appealing. I argue why a Buy rating remains appropriate, even though the stock seems overbought in the near term. As competition in the BDC market heats up as banks return to compete more aggressively, consider placing your bets on the BDC market leader. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaThe Battle Of Two Goliaths: Ares Capital Vs. FS KKR, Update
Summary Going into 2024, I compared the two largest BDCs, providing an opinion on which one of them was set to deliver stronger returns this year. While I was bullish on both of them, I went with FSK given the significant discount to NAV. So far, they have registered almost identical returns. In this article, I have reviewed the fundamentals of ARCC and FSK to determine which one is now better placed to beat the other one over the course of Q4. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaI Made Ares Capital One Of My Top BDC Positions
Summary Ares Capital offers a great risk-to-reward ratio with solid dividend coverage and a slight premium to NAV. The portfolio is well-prepared for further interest rate cuts. I made ARCC one of my Top BDC holdings this week. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: Reduced Portfolio Risk At This 9%+ Yielder
Summary Ares Capital offers a well-covered 9.7% dividend yield, supported by solid net investment income and a declining percentage of riskiest investments. The portfolio shows improvement with a decrease in Grade 2 investments and low non-accrual rates, indicating strong performance in a high-interest rate environment. ARCC's quarterly dividend is sustainable with a 120% NII coverage ratio, though unlikely to increase soon due to potential interest rate cuts. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: Why Investors Should Be Wary Of Rising Recession Risks
Summary Ares Capital's business model focuses on lending to small- and medium-sized enterprises, with investments mainly in senior secured notes and diversified sector exposure. Despite the rising interest rates, Ares Capital's dividend remains well-covered due to the company's secure spread between investment income and interest expenses. The company’s weighted average interest rate on debt has increased from 4.88% to 5.31%, driven by the issuance of higher-rate floating debt, potentially impacting future income. Potential risks include rising non-accrual loans if interest rates climb too high, and the impact of a possible recession on Ares Capital's portfolio performance. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaMy Favorite Recession BDC: Ares Capital
Summary Knowing who can give you what you need most, regardless of market conditions, is a must for retirees. ARCC has a stellar track record and shows no signs of fumbling the ball. You need income. The middle market needs liquidity. ARCC is the answer to both. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: The Pros And Cons After Q2 FY24 Results (Rating Upgrade)
Summary As the signs indicated last quarter, investment activity has been strong. However, on a run-rate basis, I believe it is slowing down in Q3 FY24. As expected, Ares Capital's yields seem to be peaking. Yields on incremental deals signed in July 2024 have been 40bps lower than company average levels. The chances of a rate cut have dramatically increased in recent days. Ares Capital, with its higher floating rate debt exposure, is well positioned to benefit. Valuation multiples are near the long term average, making it harder to take a directional view on the stock. Relative technicals vs S&P500 suggest a neutral outlook as the ratio prices are resting on top of monthly support, but in the vicinity of major 12-monthly resistance. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital Q2 Earnings: Buy, Sell, Or Hold?
Summary ARCC recently reported Q2 results. We highlight some of the things that the company is doing well. There are some meaningful headwinds forming for Ares Capital. We take its strengths and headwinds into account and share our updated outlook on the stock. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: One Of The Best Buys In The BDC Sector
Summary ARCC is the largest BDC out there, which comes with many advantages. One clear advantage is the ability to source sizeable volumes to keep the portfolio growth stable. This is an issue for other BDCs. ARCC has managed to sign these new investments by keeping the underwriting standards strict. On top of this, the underlying capital structure has strengthened further and allowed to access debt financing at favorable terms, which is crucial for a continued attractive spread capture. In this article, I explain in detail why, in my opinion, ARCC is a truly attractive investment case. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: Keep Riding On Your Winning BDC Bets
Summary Ares Capital is the largest publicly-traded BDC by market cap. ARCC's market leadership is supported by a broader integration into Ares Management's credit platform. Ares Capital's significant scale affords it substantial ability to obtain NAV-accretive deals. Ares Capital can benefit from a resurgence in M&A activity levels, bolstering its growth opportunities. I argue why ARCC's winning run seems far from over. Read on. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: Another Strong Quarter Despite A Decline In Net Income
Summary Ares Capital delivered a strong 4.1% total NAV return and a rise in core earnings in the latest quarterly results. Ares Capital trades at a 9.5% dividend yield and has a core earnings yield of 12.5%. The portfolio sector allocation is focused on software and healthcare, with a lower first-lien portfolio and a focus on larger companies. Net income fell during the quarter, but we expect it to partly bounce back next quarter as the new equity capital is put to work and leveraged. The stock's valuation is rich on an absolute basis but modest relative to the sector. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: Strong Performance And Low Leverage Signal Higher Dividends
Summary Ares Capital continues to report strong earnings compared to its dividend. The company has low leverage and strong core earnings of $0.59 per share. Results are driven by an attractive investment environment and higher base rates plus credit spreads. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: Building A Big-Yield Portfolio (BDCs, CEFs, REITs)
Summary If you are an income-focused investor, building a big-yield portfolio (6% to +11% yields), across BDCs, CEFs and REITs, can help you achieve your goals. We share updated data on the top 7 securities (by market cap) in each of the three categories, and then dive deep into BDC Ares Capital. We conclude with our strong opinion about constructing a big-yield portfolio, and about investing in Ares Capital in particular. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: A 9.2% Yielding BDC Cash Cow
Summary Ares Capital Corporation reported strong quarterly earnings, comfortably covering its dividend and seeing an increase in net asset value. The company completed a significant number of new originations in the first quarter and maintained a low non-accrual ratio. ARCC remains a top income investment with a sensible valuation and solid dividend coverage. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: High Quality But Awaiting Better Entry (Downgrade)
Summary Ares Capital has provided a total return slightly higher than the S&P 500 since December 2023. However, most of the returns are likely to come from the distribution only. The probability of rate cuts has decreased due to high inflation and a strong labor market, which is beneficial for BDCs like ARCC. ARCC's diversified portfolio and strong financials make it an attractive option for investors seeking high dividend yields. However, ARCC currently trades near all-time highs. In addition, the premium to NAV is higher than the average. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: Attractive For Income Investors Yielding 9.6% Heading Into A Lower Rate Environment
Summary BDCs, including Ares Capital, are expected to do well in a lower-rate environment due to their ability to generate higher returns and dividends compared to risk-free assets. ARCC has shown strong financial performance, with a high operating margin and profit margin, and has experienced consistent top-line growth. ARCC's dividend track record and stable financials make it an attractive investment option, especially as capital flows back into the markets from money market accounts. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital's NAV, Valuation, And Dividend Versus 14 BDC Peers - Part 1 (Includes Recommendations As Of 3/8/2024)
Summary Part 1 of this article compares ARCC’s recent quarterly change in NAV, quarterly and trailing 12-month economic return, NII, and current valuation to 14 BDC peers. Part 1 also performs a comparative analysis between each company’s investment portfolio as of 9/30/2023 and 12/31/2023. This includes an updated percentage of investments on non-accrual status. I also provide a list of the other BDC stocks I currently believe are undervalued (a buy recommendation), overvalued (a sell recommendation), and appropriately valued (a hold recommendation). Other metrics analyzed include each company’s cumulative realized gain (loss) per share, NII per share, price to annualized NII ratio, and percentage of income attributable to capitalized PIK income. Currently, the 15 covered BDC peers have a range of valuations (7 overvalued, 7 appropriately valued, 1 undervalued). I believe ARCC is currently appropriately valued (close to undervalued). Read the full article on Seeking AlphaLooking At Ares Capital's Financials Under Lower Interest Rates
Summary Ares Capital operates as a BDC lending to distressed and middle-market businesses, using leverage to enhance returns. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve expects at least three rate cuts later in the year, potentially impacting Ares' investments. Ares management has held excess earnings for reinvestment, potentially affecting future earnings and dividend payouts. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: The Only 10% Yielding BDC You Need
Summary Ares Capital Corporation is well-positioned to deliver stable net investment income in 2024, regardless of a potential recession. The business development company outearned its dividend with net investment income in the fourth quarter and saw growth in net asset value. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's cautious approach to rate cuts suggests a continued benefit for Ares Capital in a higher-for-longer rate environment. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAres Capital: Dividend Looks Secure
Summary Ares Capital is a solid BDC with a long track record of good performance. The stock looks more like a "Hold" at current levels due to the expected rate cuts by the Fed. ARCC has a diversified portfolio and strong underwriting, but the valuation is high compared to other BDCs. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaBetter Buy: Ares Capital Or Oaktree Specialty Lending? - Big Yields +10%
Summary Management experience is critical for BDC performance, and Ares Capital just has more experience in a larger number of economic conditions than Oaktree Specialty Lending. While Ares Capital's current yield is slightly lower, it has significantly better dividend coverage and plenty of room to grow. Interest rate increases will increase the income of both Ares and Oaktree. Ares is confident enough to give estimates of that growth. Even starting from the low of when the current management took over Oaktree, Ares outperforms. For these four reasons, Ares is by far the better choice. Co-produced with PendragonY Diversification is a good way to reduce individual investment risk. We frequently provide several different investment ideas to choose from in the name of diversity and risk management. But sometimes, you only have enough cash to take advantage of one opportunity. Every strategy gives a set of metrics to help those following it compare two investments. The Income Method that we use at HDO does the same. BDCs (Business Development Companies) are very hot right now. Many are doing quite well. Two such companies,Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) and Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL), are BDCs that are doing well. If an investor only has the cash to buy one of them, which is the best one to buy? ARCC has been around for a long time and has done very well. The current team managing OCSL took over the worst-performing BDC in 2017, got its dividend in line with what it could support, and began an aggressive program to improve the portfolio and its performance. Despite that impressive turnaround, ARCC is still the better BDC with better dividend coverage and more room to increase the dividend. In addition, Ares Management has a history of managing a BDC in many different economic conditions, which Oaktree's management team has yet to experience. We'll be looking at 2nd quarter 2022 results in this report. ARCC will be releasing Q3 earnings on October 25th. OCSL reports FY-Q4 on Nov. 15th. Dividend Safety Determining which company, ARCC or OCSL, is the better investment starts with assessing the dividend safety. While the Income Method aims to buy investments when their yield is high, it is still critical that the dividend be safe. It doesn't really matter how high a dividend was paid before we bought shares, we will only ever collect the dividends paid after we have started purchasing shares. Typically, companies increase their dividends only when they can afford to continue paying the higher dividend for some time. So a raise is an indicator that the dividend is well covered. In March, ARCC increased its regular quarterly dividend by a penny to $0.42, a 2.4% increase (and again in September to $0.43). In addition, ARCC has been paying a supplemental dividend of $0.03 each quarter of 2022. OCSL also showed its solid dividend coverage by increasing its quarterly dividend by half a penny to $0.17, a 3% increase. NII (Net Investment Income) is also a good metric to help determine dividend safety. While it isn't the only source of cash to pay the dividend for a BDC, it is the most repeatable. So how did our two BDCs do in NII? Looking at Adjusted NII (which accounts for some fees and interest not counted by GAAP), OCSL earned some $0.17 a share in the most recent quarter. That works out to be 103% of the dividend paid out for the quarter. The adjusted NII over the last year has averaged 17 cents a quarter and was 19 cents in the year-ago quarter. ARCC produced $0.52 in NII which very easily covered the $0.42 dividend for the quarter, and also covered the 3-cent special dividend that would normally come out of spillover income. That coverage leaves untapped that pool of cash that is required to be distributed to shareholders and thus available to help pay dividends in the future. ARCC easily beats OCSL on NII coverage of its dividend, even if you include the special dividend from ARCC in one's calculations. This is a big win for dividend reliability for ARCC. As future dividends are more important than past dividends, so is the ability of a BDC to pay those future dividends. And since NII is at, least in part, dependent on interest rates, the sensitivity of a BDC's portfolio to interest rate changes is important. At first blush, it might look like OCSL's portfolio is better positioned to benefit from a rising rate environment as it lists its exposure to floating rate debt as 87.8%. It would seem that ARCC's exposure, at 74%, is much less. However, OCSL lists its exposure to fixed or floating rate debt as the percentage of its debt investments, while ARCC lists its exposure relative to its entire portfolio. Adjusting for the 89% portion of its portfolio that is debt investments, OCSL's whole portfolio exposure to floating rates is just 78.2%. So that reduced OCSL's advantage significantly. The Federal Reserve intends to be far more hawkish than it was saying even a year ago as the most recent 75 bps increase in interest rates shows. So how each BDC will fare as rates increase is quite important. As it happens, ARCC has a slide covering this in its last earnings presentation. While it shows an increase of 31 cents in Core EPS for a 100 bps increase in interest rates, it says this is a 17% increase that would work out to be about a 12% increase in Core EPS for the 75 bps increase the Fed just instituted. This will also impact NII, so this will mean that the current dividend, increased a penny a quarter, will be better covered and might even be raised again. (Source: ARCC Q2 Investor Presentation). ARCC Q2 Investor Presentation OCSL doesn't provide such exact data, but did say in the conference call that it was well-positioned to benefit from likely interest rate increases. On dividend safety, one of the most important metrics, ARCC clearly outshines OCSL. Leverage and Liquidity ARCC and OCSL have the same investment-grade credit rating and outlook from S&P. This gives them similar costs, as well as availability and access to capital. ARCC has nearly $4.6 billion in total liquidity The leverage ratio is 1.23x. This should provide plenty of flexibility while not having too big an impact on the downside. OCSL, meanwhile, has $489 million in total liquidity. The leverage ratio is 1.08x. While OCSL is much smaller than ARCC, it still has less cash to deploy. This is offset by the lower leverage reducing the impact of price declines for its assets. Overall, we will consider this comparison to be a draw as we prefer ARCC's greater liquidity enabling it to buy assets at a good price as rising interest rates make for lower debt investment pricing. While OCSL's lower leverage ratio reduces the potential downside impact of asset price declines. Given that ARCC already has better dividend coverage, we think ARCC's larger liquidity will allow it to buy even more income which can be used to support and even increase the dividend. Investment Portfolio Non-accruals are very low as of the end of June, only 0.9% (yes, less than 1%) at fair value or 1.6% of amortized cost. ARCC's portfolio consists of 64% senior secured debt and 74% of its investments are floating rate. ARCC's portfolio is overweight more defensive sectors, with its top five sectors being software, healthcare, commercial and professional services, insurance services, and power generation. Rebuilding its portfolio since its takeover by Oaktree, the OCSL's portfolio beats out ARCC by having none of its investments in non-accrual status. OCSL's portfolio consists of ~87% senior secured debt and 88% of its debt investments are floating rate, meaning that ~79% of the total investment portfolio benefits from rising interest rates. Similar to ARCC's portfolio, OCSL's portfolio is also mostly overweight more defensive sectors, with its top five sectors being software, pharmaceuticals, data processing, biotechnology, and healthcare. In fact, its portfolio looks even more defensively positioned given its greater emphasis on medical-related industries. Overall, I think OCSL has a slightly better portfolio than ARCC. Oaktree's takeover of the fund back at the end of 2017 allowed for a good house cleaning and they have done an excellent job at underwriting new investments since then, which shows in the lower non-accrual rate. The actual amount of investments both ARCC and OCSL have in floating rate debt gives a marginal win to OCSL being slightly better positioned for a rising rate environment. Although ARCC will do marginally better if rates fall, I don't think that is likely to happen in the near to medium term. Certainly not in the next year. Track Record While we focus more on income at HDO, many investors also look at an investment's total return track record. ARCC has a great track record, as it has crushed the market since it went public: Data by YCharts OCSL, meanwhile, has a less-than-stellar track record. However, since being acquired by Oaktree at the end of 2017, management has done a phenomenal job of growing NAV and dividends per share. In fact, over that period, OCSL has improved enough to only trail ARCC by a small amount: Data by YCharts In the last few days, as the market went down hard, OCSL has even closed some of the gap with ARCC. ARCC still does better than OCSL (since Oaktree took over management) with a CAGR of 11.55% versus 10.87% for OCSL.Ares Capital: A More Aggressive Fed Is Good For Its Earnings
Summary Ares Capital is a leading business development company focusing on middle-market portfolio companies. It has a well-diversified portfolio and mainly serves higher-quality companies. Notwithstanding, ARCC has also been battered, as the market correctly anticipated value compression, as seen in its NAV per share trend. However, we urge investors to consider whether ARCC's valuations have been de-risked, despite the coming recession. Furthermore, Ares Capital is expected to benefit from the Fed's hawkish stance, as 74% of its debt portfolio is predicated on floating rates. We discuss the critical levels investors should watch and why buying ARCC through the cycle makes sense. Thesis Leading middle market business development company Ares Capital (ARCC) has seen its stock getting hammered from its February highs, even though it continues to benefit from a hawkish Fed. Accordingly, ARCC has declined nearly 25% through its recent lows, as the market de-rated it to account for the value compression within its portfolio companies. Management is confident that its relatively low leverage (targeted debt/equity: 0.9x to 1.25x) and its ample liquidity of $4.7B should proffer it more opportunities in the dislocated debt financing market. As a result, the company continues to expect robust opportunities in the private lending market, despite the looming global recession. In addition, its focus on mainly less cyclical higher-quality companies that have demonstrated robust EBITDA growth should help assure the market of its value proposition through the cycle. Given the marked collapse to its recent lows, we assess that its valuation has also been de-risked. Furthermore, its price action is also constructive, which could help ARCC form a consolidation zone at the current levels. However, we believe caution is still necessary, as a worse-than-expected global recession could de-rate its valuation multiples further, in line with its historical averages. Therefore, investors considering adding exposure are encouraged to layer in over time. With management committing to delivering its dividend strategy, we see an attractive reward-to-risk profile at an NTM dividend yield of 10%. Accordingly, we rate ARCC as a Buy. Own ARCC Through The Fed's Hawkish Posture With the release of the closely-watched nonfarm payrolls report on October 7, the market has priced in a much higher probability (81.6%) of a 75 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in November. Therefore, it should provide more clarity over Ares Capital's core EPS runway through H1'23 at least (the Fed's current median terminal rate is 4.6%), as it benefits from the increasing base rate adjustment on its floating rate debt portfolio. Investors should note that its floating rate share was 74% in Q2, financed mainly by lower-cost, fixed-rate funding sources. Ares Capital Core EPS change % consensus estimates (S&P Cap IQ) However, there's a bit of a lag time in its base rate reset on its debt portfolio. Management highlighted: We expect continued increases in short-term rates to have a positive impact on the net interest earnings performance of the company. Given about 60% of the base rates for our floating rate loans currently reset every 3 months and the increase in base rates through these resets generally occurred in the latter part of the quarter, our second quarter earnings did not fully benefit from the increase in market rates reflected in our yields at quarter end. (Ares Capital FQ2'22 earnings call) We believe the visibility through 2023 should help to mitigate potential earnings volatility through the coming recession. Consequently, it should provide greater confidence in Ares Capital's earnings quality through its well-diversified portfolio. Hence, we are confident it could reduce potential volatility in ARCC from the current levels. Ares Capital NAV per share change % consensus estimates (S&P Cap IQ) Despite that, we believe the market justifiably de-rated ARCC in anticipation of its portfolio net asset value ((NAV)) per share impact. As seen above, Ares Capital's NAV per share growth is only expected to bottom in Q1'23, with the Street (very bullish) likely modeling a less severe economic downturn. Hence, the risks of a significant economic recession could markedly affect its NAV per share recovery, leading to further value compression in its portfolio companies and ARCC's valuations. But ARCC's Valuation Seems Reasonable ARCC NTM Core EPS multiples valuation trend (koyfin) We gleaned that the market had already de-rated ARCC, sending its NTM core EPS multiples spiraling down toward the two standard deviation zone under its 10Y mean. However, we are confident that the company's earnings visibility through the cycle, supported by the Fed's hawkish posture, should undergird its valuation at the current levels.Where Prospect Capital Clearly Beats Ares Capital
Summary In this volatile market, many mispricings are surfacing providing great opportunities to improve your fixed-income portfolio through swaps. Ares Capital and Prospect Capital are two we look at today. While popular wisdom loves Ares Capital stock, and we agree, there are better opportunities for even safer yields with Prospect Capital. Introduction The markets are treacherous and volatile now, but this volatility often creates distortions and relative mispricings that allow for excellent opportunities to swap out of a relatively overvalued security for one that is relatively undervalued. These swaps can improve your portfolio’s yield without adding risk, or provide you with more price upside or less risk than you currently have. Swaps are one of the best ways to beat the fixed-income benchmarks. For those interested in fixed-income swapping strategies, I highly recommend this article. Prospect Capital Prospect Capital (PSEC) is a business development company, aka BDC, that has been public for 18 years. It is managed by Prospect Capital Management L.P.. Like many BDCs, it invests in middle market sized private companies providing them various types of loans (generally senior and subordinated secured debt) as well as having some equity investments and investments in collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). Here is what Yahoo Finance says about PSEC. Prospect Capital Corporation is a business development company. It specializes in middle market, mature, mezzanine finance, later stage, emerging growth, leveraged buyouts, refinancing, acquisitions, recapitalizations, turnaround, growth capital, development, capital expenditures and subordinated debt tranches of collateralized loan obligations, cash flow term loans, market place lending and bridge transactions. It also makes real estate investments particularly in multi-family residential real estate asset class. The fund makes secured debt, senior debt, senior and secured term loans, unitranche debt, first-lien and second lien, private debt, private equity, mezzanine debt, and equity investments in private and microcap public businesses. It focuses on both primary origination and secondary loans/portfolios and invests in situations like debt financings for private equity sponsors, acquisitions, dividend recapitalizations, growth financings, bridge loans, cash flow term loans, real estate financings/investments. It also focuses on investing in small-sized and medium-sized private companies rather than large public companies. The fund typically invests across all industry sectors, with a particular expertise in the energy and industrial sectors. PSEC currently sells for $6.53 and yields 10.64%. Since the bottom of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, PSEC’s performance has been reasonably good as holders received very high dividends and their common stock price has held fairly steady. Leading up to and during the financial crisis, they did take a good hit to their stock price. We would be neutral on PSEC common stock here. PSEC Price Chart Since 2009 Bottom Yahoo Finance Prospect Capital’s Note Maturing 10/15/2028 – CUSIP 74348TAW2 The PSEC note that we like is the 3.437% note maturing on 10/25/2028 with the CUSIP number 74348TAW2. A “note” is just a shorter term bond. Amazingly this 3.437% note is now yielding approximately 9%. This shows you just what has happened to the fixed-income market over the past year. This note was issued almost exactly 1 year ago at par $100. The bid/offer is now $74/$75 which represent a yield-to-maturity (YTM) of 8.9% to 9.1%. The 9% yield is outstanding given that PSEC has a strong credit rating. This note, yielding 9%, is rated BBB- by S&P and Baa3 by Moodys. These are both investment grade ratings. It has the same credit rating as the well know blue chip BDC Main Street Capital (MAIN) as well as other larger cap BDC bonds like those from Ares Capital (ARCC), and Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD) but offers a much higher YTM. I agree with the credit ratings for the following reasons, despite PSEC’s portfolio of investments being generally more risky than other BDCs with the same rating. Here are the reasons: It operates at lower leverage than other BDCs to compensate for not having primarily senior secured debt investments. While a typical BDC with the same credit rating has leverage of around 55%, PSEC operates with a leverage only 37%. Unlike other BDCs with the same credit rating, PSEC has issued a healthy chunk of preferred stock which provides extra protection for the bonds. Having preferred stock provides PSEC with flexibility in that they never have to refinance preferred stocks and preferred stock dividends can be suspended if problems arise – which is extremely unlikely given that no preferred stock from a BDC has every gone bad. The value of their preferred stocks must be wiped out before the bonds would even start to be impacted. And it seems that lately PSEC is moving in the direction of carrying a higher amount of preferred stock versus bonds. If this trend continues, the bonds just get safer and safer as the debt leverage gets lower and lower. BDCs have legal leverage limits. They must keep leverage below 67%. This means that a BDC bond should theoretically never default, and in reality, no BDC bond has ever defaulted. That alone should give PSEC an investment grade credit rating. BDCs almost universally have a small number of large bonds that they have issued to raise capital. This is somewhat risky because when a large bond comes due, the company must be able to refinance it. During times of financial crises or where credit has become harder to obtain, refinancing can be problematic. But PSEC uses an unusual financing model and has issued hundreds of smaller bonds which greatly reduces refinancing risk There are investors who don’t like PSEC common stock because the company has issued common stock below net asset value ((NAV)). But as a bondholder, we really like that management will raise cash through stock issuance in order to insure that leverage remain low and liquidity good. So what we have here, with this PSEC note, is a large mispricing. While BDCs with the same rating and approximate maturity tend to have a YTM of around 7.5%, the current YTM of 9% for this PSEC bond looks just outstanding. We consider this PSEC note a strong relative buy. Ares Capital Like PSEC, Ares Capital is a BDC. It has also been around for 18 years. They are managed by Ares Capital LLC. Like PSEC, they serve middle market companies generally making senior 1st lien and 2nd lien loans but they also invest in mezzanine loans, equity and preferred equity. Here is what Yahoo Finance says about ARCC. Ares Capital Corporation is a business development company specializing in acquisition, recapitalization, mezzanine debt, restructurings, rescue financing, and leveraged buyout transactions of middle market companies. It also makes growth capital and general refinancing. It prefers to make investments in companies engaged in the basic and growth manufacturing, business services, consumer products, health care products and services, and information technology service sectors. The fund will also consider investments in industries such as restaurants, retail, oil and gas, and technology sectors. It focuses on investments in Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Southwest regions from its New York office, the Midwest region, from the Chicago office, and the Western region from the Los Angeles office. ARCC Price Chart Since 2009 Bottom Yahoo Finance ARCC currently sells for $16.97 with a yield of 9.81%. ARCC common stock has clearly been a much better performer than PSEC since inception. So here we reverse ourselves. While we like the PSEC bond much better than the PSEC common stock, we think ARCC common stock is a better buy than their bonds. We think that ARES bonds/notes could fall further in price even if interest rates stabilize here. Ares Capital Note Maturing November 15, 2031 – CUSIP 04010LBC6 The ARES Capital note that we are looking at is the 3.2% note maturing November 15, 2031 CUSIP number 04010LBC6. The current YTM on this note is 7.2%. There are 2 other ARCC notes that mature sooner than this one, and we also consider them a sell. You will see these in the table below. ARCC has the same credit rating as PSEC, BBB- from S&P and Baa3 from Moodys. Bond yields generally move higher the further out the maturity date is. So it is surprising that this ARCC note, which is 3 years longer in maturity than the PSEC note, has a yield so much below the 9% YTM of the PSEC bond with the same rating. Here is a comparison chart of other BDC bonds with same credit rating as PSEC and ARCC and maturing around the same time as our PSEC recommendation, including the ARCC bond upon which we are focusing.Better Buy: Ares Capital's 9.3% Yield Or FS KKR's 12.6%
Summary Both Ares Capital and FS KKR Capital boast investment grade credit ratings. ARCC has a tremendous track record whereas FSK pays out a much higher dividend yield. Which one is the better buy? Both Ares Capital Corp. (ARCC) and FS KKR Capital (FSK) are high yield business development companies (i.e., BDCs) (BIZD) that boast investment-grade credit ratings. In this article, we will compare them side by side and offer our take on which one is a better buy. Ares Capital Vs. FS KKR Capital - Balance Sheet As was already stated, both boast investment grade credit ratings of Baa3 (Stable) or equivalent. ARCC boasts immense liquidity of $4.6 billion, with a leverage ratio of 1.23x as of the end of Q2. While the leverage ratio is on the high end of its target range, its substantial liquidity and strong underwriting track record offset this risk to a considerable extent. Furthermore, after Q2 ended, ARCC issued a considerable amount of equity, which has likely reduced its leverage ratio by a considerable amount. Meanwhile, FSK's leverage ratio is a little lower at 1.15x as of the end of Q2, while its total liquidity stands at $2.7 billion. The company's debt maturity ladder is conservatively positioned, with no maturities until 2024 and the vast majority of its debt not maturing until 2027 or later. While both appear to be in solid shape, we give ARCC the slight edge here given that its liquidity is superior to FSK's as well as the fact that a greater percentage of its debt is fixed rate. Ares Capital Vs. FS KKR Capital - Investment Portfolio ARCC's investment portfolio is very well positioned to benefit from rising interest rates. ARCC's CEO stated during the Q2 earnings call: As of quarter end, holding all else equal and after considering the impact of income-based fees, we calculated that a 100-basis point increase in short-term rates could increase our annual earnings by approximately $0.23 per share, a 14% increase above this quarter's core EPS run rate. A 200-basis point increase in short-term rates could increase our total annual earnings by approximately $0.44 per share, a 26% increase above this quarter's core EPS run rate. On top of that, its portfolio companies have strong interest coverage of 2.9x, giving them considerable capacity to handle rising interest rates. Furthermore, with a conservative 44% average loan to value ratio among its portfolio businesses, there is considerable protection for its investments should they enter into default. Overall, 71% of its investments are senior secured debt and its non-accruals stood at a mere 0.9% at fair market value as of the end of Q2. FSK is also well-positioned to benefit from rising interest rates, given that 87% of its debt investments have floating interest rates. On the other hand, its portfolio underwriting performance continues to lag behind ARCC's as non-accruals at fair value now stand at 2.9% as of the end of Q2. Moving forward, this performance should improve given that management continues to prune legacy investments from the portfolio, with 90% of the investment portfolio now originated by either KKR credit or the FS KKR advisor. Among the 90% of the portfolio that has been originated by KKR/FS KKR, the non-accrual rate on a fair value basis is a mere 0.5%. Finally, with 93% of its portfolio invested in senior secured debt or asset-based finance investments, its portfolio is positioned rather defensively. Overall, we give the edge to ARCC here as its non-accruals are considerably lower than FSK's. Ares Capital Vs. FS KKR Capital - Dividend Safety ARCC's dividend is clearly safer than FSK's right now, given that it has quite a bit of spillover income: We currently estimate that our spillover income from 2021 into 2022, will be approximately $651 million or $1.32 per share. We believe having a strong and meaningful undistributed spillover supports our goal of maintaining a steady dividend throughout market cycles and sets us apart from many other BDCs that do not have this level of spillover. In contrast, FSK employs a variable dividend payout policy. While its yield is considerably higher than ARCC's at the moment, investors should keep in mind that the exact level of it is also far less reliable than ARCC's payout. Ares Capital Vs. FS KKR Capital - Track Record ARCC has a hands-down better track record than FSK, as it has crushed SLRC since FSK went public: ARCC Total Return Price data by YChartsWhy We Own Ares Capital Instead Of Owl Rock Capital
Summary Ares Capital and Owl Rock Capital are both investment grade BDCs. They both pay out very high dividend yields. We share three reasons why we own ARCC instead of ORCC. Both Ares Capital Corp (ARCC) and Owl Rock Capital Corp (ORCC) have investment grade (BBB- Stable from S&P) credit ratings and also pay out very high dividend yields. While some investors prefer to invest in both and some even prefer ORCC given that it pays out a higher dividend yield and also trades at a cheaper valuation multiple relative to NAV, we currently own ARCC instead of ORCC. In this article we share three reasons why. #1. Superior Track Record The biggest reason why we are putting our hard-earned capital into ARCC instead of ORCC right now is because - given the significant macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty and risk surrounding us today - we want to be able to sleep well at night. While ORCC's management certainly seem competent and have strong underwriting performance thus far, they have also not weathered a severe and prolonged recession. In contrast, ARCC's management weathered the Great Financial Crisis and have put up very impressive numbers over the years, crushing the S&P 500 (SPY) and broader BDC sector (BIZD) in the process: ARCC Total Return Price data by YCharts This tells us that ARCC's management clearly has superior capital allocation ability and is able to navigate changing market environments with skill. In contrast, we have no way of truly knowing how ORCC's management will navigate a severe recession. Furthermore, since ORCC went public right before COVID-19 hit a few years ago, ARCC has meaningfully outperformed ORCC, further cementing our conviction in its management team: ARCC Total Return Price data by YCharts #2. Greater Dividend Safety Another reason why we prefer ARCC relative to ORCC at the moment is its superior dividend safety. BDCs are primarily income instruments, so while the size of the yield is important, the safety of that yield through periods of market turbulence is arguably just as important. ARCC hiked its dividend in Q2 by 2.4% to $0.42. This fact alone says a lot about the company's dividend safety, as the saying goes: "the safest dividend is the one that has just been raised." On top of that, its Q2 net investment income of $0.52 easily supported its quarterly dividend with a 1.24x coverage ratio. As a result of its very strong quarterly results, ARCC declared a special $0.03 per share dividend as well. Moving forward, the dividend should continue to be quite safe, and possibly even continue growing, as ARCC is well positioned to benefit from rising interest rates. Finally, ARCC has a lot of spillover income, which would likely support the current dividend level for a while, even if the economy turned south and nonaccruals piled up, leading to lower net investment income. As management stated on the Q2 earnings call: [W]e felt highly confident in our ability to increase the dividend this quarter. And I'll couple that by saying we've also built a pretty substantial amount of spillover income, as you're aware of the company. And I don't feel the need, frankly, to add any more to that number. I could argue that number might even be a little bit high, which is why we've been using it to pay a special dividend throughout this year. So we feel good about the earnings trajectory, and we feel good about the dividend where it is today and potentially growing from here. In contrast, ORCC's dividend coverage ratio in Q2 was much tighter. Net investment income came in at $0.32 on a per share basis, barely covering its $0.31 dividend payout. On top of the tight coverage, ORCC lacks the substantial spillover income that ARCC has and management refused on the earnings call to guide for continued dividend growth nor special dividend payouts in the near term, whereas ARCC has implied that it will continue to pay out a special dividend for the remainder of fiscal 2022 at a minimum. #3. Valuation Gap Is Not As Wide As It Appears While ORCC is cheaper relative to NAV than ARCC is (ORCC trades at an 11.12% discount to NAV, whereas ARCC trades at a slight premium of 2.60% to its last reported NAV), this gap is not as wide as it first appears. First and foremost, ARCC's expense ratio is slightly lower than ORCC's (5.32% on a non-leveraged basis for ARCC relative to 5.55% on a non-leveraged basis for ORCC), its cost of leverage is lower at 3.44% for ARCC relative to 3.82% for ORCC, and its cost of capital is also cheaper. Furthermore, it is able to issue shares at a slight premium to NAV and combine the equity with much cheaper debt and reinvest the proceeds on a very accretive basis, whereas ORCC cannot issue equity without diluting shareholders and its cost of capital is meaningfully higher.Better Buy: Ares Capital's 8.8% Yield Or SLR Investment's 11%
Summary Both Ares Capital and SLR Investment boast investment grade credit ratings. ARCC has a tremendous track record whereas SLRC pays out a much higher dividend yield. Which one is the better buy? Both Ares Capital Corp. (ARCC) and SLR Investment Corp. (SLRC) are high yield business development companies (i.e., BDCs) (BIZD) that boast investment-grade credit ratings. In this article, we will compare them side by side and offer our take on which one is a better buy. Ares Capital Vs. SLR Investment - Balance Sheet As was already stated, both boast investment grade credit ratings of Baa3 (Stable) or equivalent. When we look at ARCC's specifics, we find that it has total liquidity of $4.6 billion (slightly more than one-fifth of its total enterprise value) with a leverage ratio of 1.23x. Meanwhile, SLRC's leverage ratio is much lower at 0.96x, at the lower end of its 0.9x to 1.25x leverage target range. While management did not provide a specific number, it said that it had "ample available capital to take advantage of the current attractive investment environment." While both appear to be in solid shape, we give SLRC the slight edge here given that its leverage ratio is considerably lower than ARCC's. ARCC Vs. SLRC - Investment Portfolio SLRC's portfolio is quite defensively positioned with 97.2% of its comprehensive debt portfolio invested in first lien senior secured loans, which provide greater downside protection during recessions. On top of that, 99.8% of the portfolio consisted of senior secured loans, with the remaining 2.6% that are not first lien senior secured loans being second lien cash flow loans and second lien asset-based loans. The company's investments are very well diversified across 780 distinct issuers and over 100 industries. The average exposure to a single counterparty was $3.5 million or 0.1% of the total portfolio and its largest industry exposures were defensive in nature (health care, diversified financials, life sciences and recurring software). The weighted average interest coverage for their cash flow loans to upper mid-market sponsor-backed companies was strong at 3.1x. Finally, their conservative portfolio construction seems to be paying off with nonaccruals at 0.6% of fair market value. ARCC's portfolio meanwhile, enjoys strong interest coverage of 2.9x and an average loan to value ratio of only ~44%. Meanwhile, 71% of its total investment portfolio is senior secured debt, with average position size exposure of 0.3%. On top of that, ARCC's non-accruals were just 0.9% at fair market value. Finally, like SLRC, its top 5 industries are all relatively defensive, (software, healthcare, financials, commercial and professional services, and insurance services). Both businesses appear very well positioned to benefit from rising interest rates, with SLRC's management stating on its most recent earnings call: our funding profile is in a strong position to weather a rising rate environment with $506 million up to $1 billion of funded debt comprised of senior unsecured fixed rate notes at a weighted average annual interest rate of 3.9%... if interest rates were to move another 100 basis points or 200 basis points, the portfolio at June 30, 2022, would generate $0.08 per share and $0.18 per share of incremental net investment income, respectively, on an annualized basis. Meanwhile, ARCC's CEO stated after their most recent earnings call: As of quarter end, holding all else equal and after considering the impact of income-based fees, we calculated that a 100-basis point increase in short-term rates could increase our annual earnings by approximately $0.23 per share, a 14% increase above this quarter's core EPS run rate. A 200-basis point increase in short-term rates could increase our total annual earnings by approximately $0.44 per share, a 26% increase above this quarter's core EPS run rate. Both businesses have strong underwriting performances and have conservatively positioned portfolios that are poised to benefit from rising interest rates. Overall, we assign a draw here as SLRC's portfolio is slightly more conservatively positioned and also has a higher weighting towards loans while ARCC is poised to benefit slightly more from rising interest rates. Dividend Safety ARCC's dividend is clearly safer than SLRC's at the moment as its core income in Q2 matched its dividend payout and it has significant spillover income that will support its dividend in the quarters to come alongside its strong expected per share growth in earnings due to rising interest rates: We currently estimate that our spillover income from 2021 into 2022, will be approximately $651 million or $1.32 per share. We believe having a strong and meaningful undistributed spillover supports our goal of maintaining a steady dividend throughout market cycles and sets us apart from many other BDCs that do not have this level of spillover.More Attractive After Quarterly Results: Ares Capital Or Oaktree Specialty Lending?
ARCC and OCSL are two investment-grade BDCs that recently reported quarterly results. Which one is more attractive after Q2 results? We compare them side by side and offer our take. Both Ares Capital (ARCC) and Oaktree Specialty Lending (OCSL) have investment-grade (BBB- Stable from S&P) credit ratings, vaulting them into the upper echelon of quality Business Development Companies (i.e., BDCs) (BIZD). Both also happen to offer mouthwatering dividend yields, with ARCC boasting an 8.2% dividend yield and OCSL boasting an 8.8% dividend yield. In this article, we will review their most recent quarterly results and then compare them side by side and offer our take on which one is more attractive. Quarterly Results ARCC's Q2 results were very strong thanks to increased investment activity, rising interest rates, and solid investment credit performance. Core earnings per share beat consensus estimates by $0.02 and increased by $0.04 (9.5%) sequentially, though they were down 13.2% year-over-year. However, net investment income - the most important indicator of dividend coverage and sustainability - was up sharply. On a per share basis, it increased by 26.8% sequentially and by 33.3% year-over-year. Meanwhile, OCSL posted adjusted investment income of $0.33 per share in its latest quarter. This was flat sequentially. Meanwhile, adjusted net investment income came in at $0.17 per share, down sequentially from $0.18. Balance Sheet As was already stated, both ARCC and OCSL have the same investment-grade credit rating and outlook from S&P, which puts them on similar footing in terms of perceived risk and access to capital. ARCC has $4.6 billion in total liquidity (~21.3% of its enterprise value) with a leverage ratio of 1.23x. Only 27.7% of ARCC's debt has a floating interest rate. OCSL, meanwhile, has $489 million in total liquidity (~18.5% of its enterprise value) and a leverage ratio of 1.08x. 78.5% of OCSL's debt has a floating interest rate. While both appear to be in solid shape, OCSL seems to have the stronger balance sheet given its meaningfully lower leverage ratio. On the other hand, ARCC's liquidity represents a slightly higher percentage of its enterprise value, and it also has much less exposure to rising interest rates. Essentially what it boils down to is that if interest rates remain neutral or decline from present levels, OCSL has the better positioned balance sheet. However, if interest rates continue to rise, ARCC is in a better position. Overall, we will consider this comparison to be a draw as we prefer ARCC's greater protection against further increases in interest rates but at the same time value OCSL's much lower leverage ratio which gives it more flexibility to invest opportunistically and better protection against downside scenarios. Investment Portfolio ARCC's portfolio consists of 64% senior secured debt and 74% of its investments are floating rate. ARCC's portfolio is overweight more defensive sectors, with its top five sectors being software, healthcare, commercial and professional services, insurance services, and power generation. Non-accruals were very low as of 6/30/22, amounting to just 0.9% at fair value and 1.6% at amortized cost. OCSL's portfolio consists of ~87% senior secured debt and 88% of its debt investments are floating rate, meaning that ~79% of the total investment portfolio benefits from rising interest rates. Similar to ARCC's portfolio, OCSL's portfolio is also mostly overweight more defensive sectors, with its top five sectors being software, pharmaceuticals, data processing, biotechnology, and healthcare. In fact, its portfolio looks even more defensively positioned given its greater emphasis on medical-related industries. The company continued its streak of flawless underwriting with 0 investments on non-accrual. Overall, OCSL appears to have a significantly superior investment portfolio as it has much greater exposure to senior secured debt, fewer non-accruals, and a more defensively positioned sector allocation as well. On top of that, its greater exposure to rising interest rates helps to somewhat offset its greater exposure to rising interest rates in its outstanding debt. Dividend Safety Both companies hiked their dividends following announcing quarterly results. OCSL increased its dividend by 3% to $0.17 per share, and ARCC increased its dividend by 2.4% to $0.42 per share. OCSL's dividend coverage ratio is currently fairly tight at 1.06x. However, its interest rate sensitivity is much lower than ARCC's given that it has greater balance between floating rate debt obligations and investments. As a result, especially when combined with its lower leverage and more conservatively positioned portfolio, its cash flow is likely to be more stable moving forward than ARCC's will be. ARCC's dividend coverage ratio is phenomenal at present as its $0.52 per share in net investment income easily covered its $0.42 quarterly dividend at a 1.24x ratio. Furthermore, ARCC declared a $0.03 special dividend for the quarter and still has a lot of spillover income, further securing its dividend. As management stated on the earnings call: we never talk about dividends beyond this quarter, but we felt highly confident in our ability to increase the dividend this quarter. And I'll couple that by saying we've also built a pretty substantial amount of spillover income, as you're aware of the company. And I don't feel the need, frankly, to add any more to that number. I could argue that number might even be a little bit high, which is why we've been using it to pay a special dividend throughout this year. So we feel good about the earnings trajectory, and we feel good about the dividend where it is today and potentially growing from here.Ares Capital Is Sliding And I Am Buying This 8% Yielding BDC
ARCC slid -3.58% yesterday upon news on an 8 million share public offering, and this could continue into Monday's trading session. Investors should read through the public offering to see if they are in agreement with how ARCC's management will allocate the proceeds. ARCC delivered a beat on its Q2 EPS and net investment income, which helped position ARCC to pay its 3rd consecutive special dividend on top of its quarterly dividend. ARCC has just raised its dividend again, and after it's paid, ARCC will have paid $27.39 in dividends since it went public, which is 182.6% of its initial value IPO value. Shares of Ares Capital (ARCC) slid more than -3% on 7/29 after news broke that ARCC would price 8 million shares in a public offering. The 8 million share offering came several days after ARCC beat Q2 earnings estimates on both EPS and investment income and rewarded shareholders with a 2.4% quarterly dividend increase. ARCC is the largest publicly traded BDC by net assets and market cap, and plays an important role as one of the largest direct lenders in the U.S. to private or public U.S. firms with market caps under $250 million. Is ARCC an investment that's going to gain tremendous notoriety? Is ARCC going to break out and generate massive amounts of capital appreciation? ARCC isn't flashy, it's not going to have the same tailwind potential as some technology companies. From a capital appreciation standpoint, an S&P index fund will probably appreciate more over an extended period. ARCC is an income investment that is probably only interesting to investors looking for larger than average income generation potential. I like ARCC for under $20, and I am looking to buy it as it slides. Ares Capital The good news from Q2 In Q2 of 2022, ARCC committed to roughly $3.1 billion new investments, including $570 million of new investment commitments to IHAM, which have already been funded with $2.9 billion of capital. The $3.1 billion of new investments included 21 new portfolio companies and 31 existing portfolio companies. These additional investments are made up of 71% first lien senior secured loans, 1% second lien senior secured loans, 1% subordinated certificates of the Senior Direct Lending Program (the "SDLP"), 3% senior subordinated loans, 3% preferred equity, 18% IHAM and 3% were in other equity. Of these, 89% were in floating rate debt securities, of which 94% contained interest rate floors. Ares Capital In Q2, ARCC generated $0.46 of EPS which was a $0.02 beat and produced $479 million of investment income which was a beat of $12.79 million, up by 4.4% YoY. ARCC focused on doing deals with larger companies over the past several years, which helped during the downturn, as the weighted average EBITDA of ARCC's portfolio reached $179 million. This is more than 2x from 2017. ARCC believes that the continued increase in market interest rates presents a potential opportunity for the growth of its core earnings. This is due to the large floating rate loan portfolio, which is financed by mostly low-cost, fixed-rate, unsecured sources of financing. ARCC is anticipating that additional rate hikes should drive its quarterly core earnings well past its Q2 level. Ares Capital ARCC's total portfolio at fair value at the end of Q2 was $21.2 billion, and its total assets amounted to $21.8 billion. The weighted average yield on ARCC's debt and other income-producing securities at amortized cost was 9.5%, and the weighted average yield on total investments at amortized cost was 8.7%. The total investment yield at the end of Q2 increased approximately 60 basis points from Q1. These numbers are enticing to me because ARCC should benefit from the rising rate environment as it theoretically will correlate to positive impacts on net interest earnings in Q3. The latest dividend increase is a continuation of a longstanding practice from ARCC ARCC has a long history of paying dividends, with 2005 being its first full year of dividend payments. Since its inception, ARCC has increased its quarterly dividend by 48.28%. ARCC's core earnings and net realized gains have driven its dividend growth, and the rising rate environment has helped ARCC deliver another dividend increase. ARCC's dividend track record is unique, and income investors should take these statistics into consideration. ARCC just provided its 2nd quarterly dividend increase over the past 12 months, which is its 3rd increase in the past 6 quarters and its 53rd consecutive quarter of unchanged or growing dividends. Ares Capital The chart above illustrates all of ARCC's dividends since Q3 2018. Throughout 2019, ARCC paid 4 special dividends in addition to its regular quarterly dividend. This is another aspect that sets ARCC apart from other BDCs as they continuously generate spillover income. ARCC has estimated that its spillover income from 2021 into 2022 will be approximately $694 million, or $1.41 per share. Generating undistributed spillover income helps support ARCC's dividend throughout fluctuating economic and market cycles. Q3 will now be the 3rd consecutive quarter where a special dividend has been declared in addition to the regular quarterly dividend. ARCC went public through an IPO at $15 per share since the fall of 2004 has appreciated by 29.27%. If this statistic was told to investors looking for capital appreciation, they would look at you as if you had lost your mind. As I indicated at the beginning of this article, I look at ARCC as an income vehicle. Including the Q3 2022 dividend, ARCC will have paid $27.39 in dividends since it went public, which is 182.6% of its initial value. When I look at income investments, I just want them to trade sideways, and if they generate a small amount of capital appreciation, it's an added bonus for me. The main focus is income, and ARCC generates income in spades. Its next ex-dividend date is 9/14/22 with a 9/30/22 payout date. ARCC's dividend track record is hard to replicate, and the special dividends are an added bonus on top of the 53 consecutive quarters of unchanged or growing dividends. How the 8 million share offering could be used The market didn't seem to like the 8 million shares ARCC is selling in the public offering. ARCC has granted the underwriters an option to purchase up to an additional 1,200,000 shares of common stock, and the offering is expected to close on 8/2/22. ARCC is expecting to utilize the proceeds to repay certain outstanding indebtedness under its credit facilities. ARCC can reborrow under its credit facilities for general corporate purposes, which include investing in portfolio companies per its investment objective.Ares Capital Non-GAAP EPS of $0.46 beats by $0.02, TII of $479M beats by $12.79M
Ares Capital press release (NASDAQ:ARCC): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.46 beats by $0.02. Total investment income of $479M (+4.4% Y/Y) beats by $12.79M.Better 9%+ Yield Buy: Owl Rock Vs. Ares Capital
Both ARCC and ORCC boast investment-grade credit ratings. ARCC has a 9% dividend yield, and ORCC has a 10% dividend yield. Which one is the better buy? Both Ares Capital Corp (ARCC) and Owl Rock Capital Corp (ORCC) have investment grade (BBB- Stable from S&P) credit ratings, vaulting them into the upper echelon of quality Business Development Companies (i.e., BDCs) (BIZD). Both also happen to offer mouthwatering dividend yields, with ARCC boasting a 9% dividend yield and ORCC boasting a 10% dividend yield. In this article we will compare them side by side and offer our take on which one is a better buy. Balance Sheet As was already stated, both ARCC and ORCC have the same investment grade credit rating and outlook from S&P, which puts them on similar footing in terms of perceived risk and access to capital. ORCC has $1.7 billion in total liquidity (~14.5% of its enterprise value) with a leverage ratio of 1.17x. 29% of ORCC's capital structure is negatively exposed to rising interest rates. ARCC, meanwhile, has $5.9 billion in total liquidity (~30.5% of its enterprise value) and a leverage ratio of 1.06x. Only ~11% of ARCC's capital structure is negatively exposed to rising interest rates. While both appear to be in solid shape, ARCC seems to clearly have the stronger balance sheet. Investment Portfolio ORCC's portfolio consists of 89% senior secured debt and 99% of its debt investments are floating rate, meaning that 90% of the total portfolio is floating rate debt. ORCC's portfolio is overweight more defensive sectors, with its top five sectors being software, financial services, insurance, food and beverages, and healthcare. Non-accruals were very low as of 3/31/22 with just 0.1% at fair value and 0.2% at cost. ARCC's portfolio is well positioned for rising interest rates and potentially even an economic downturn, with strong interest coverage of 2.9x and loan to values of just ~44%. Despite a 300-basis point increase in LIBOR rates, ARCC's interest coverage ratio is expected to remain above 2x. 71% of its portfolio is senior secured debt, its average position size is 0.3%, and its largest investment is less than 1.5% of its total portfolio. 74% of its total portfolio is in floating rate investments. ARCC's non-accruals were just 1.2% at cost. Finally, its top 5 industries are all relatively defensive, including software, healthcare, financials, commercial and professional services, and insurance services. Both businesses appear very well positioned to benefit from rising interest rates, with ORCC's management stating on its most recent earnings call: To summarize, given almost all of our assets are floating and only 29% of our capital structure is floating, we expect rising rates may have a slightly negative impact in the second quarter, but will result in a meaningful net positive impact on NII starting in the second half of 2022. For example, all else equal, a 100 basis point rate increase would generate approximately $0.04 per share in quarterly NII after considering the impact of income-based fees. Meanwhile, ARCC's CEO stated after their most recent earnings call: As of quarter end, holding all else equal and after considering the impact of income-based fees, we calculated that a 100-basis point increase in short-term rates could increase our annual earnings by approximately $0.23 per share, a 14% increase above this quarter's core EPS run rate. A 200-basis point increase in short-term rates could increase our total annual earnings by approximately $0.44 per share, a 26% increase above this quarter's core EPS run rate. Both portfolios have their strengths. ARCC's is more diversified, and the company has a longer and more established track record of excellence, while ORCC's non-accruals rate is 100 basis points lower and has a meaningfully greater percentage of its investment portfolio in senior secured debt. While it is extremely close, we are going to give a slight edge to ORCC here, though we also recognize that ARCC has a tremendous track record. However, given that we have a separate section for that, we will just stick with objective evaluation of the numbers here. Dividend Safety ORCC generated $0.31 in net investment income per share in its most recent quarter while paying out the exact same sum as a dividend. While the dividend coverage was tight, management noted that it was likely a one-time event given that they had very little repayment income due to a seasonally quieter M&A environment.Load Up The Truck With 9.3% Yielding Ares Capital
Ares Capital is trading at an attractive book value multiple. ARCC has a history of producing strong dividend and NAV growth for shareholders. ARCC’s pay-out ratio is below 100%.Ares Capital: 10% Yield, Benefits From Rising Rates, Analyst Upgrades, 5% Discount
ARCC has 87% of its portfolio in floating rate income producing securities. It yields 10.03%, with 1.2X trailing dividend coverage. ARCC got 2 analyst upgrades in late April to outperform and overweight. It's selling at a rare 5.6% discount.Ares Capital Stock: 2 Reasons A Dividend Cut Could Be Coming
ARCC is a blue chip BDC that many retirees depend on for its juicy dividend payouts. While the dividend looks safe, we see 2 factors that could lead to a dividend cut. We assess these and offer our take on whether or not retirees should rely on the dividend.Ares Capital Stock: Our Top Pick For The Rising Interest Rate Environment
Ares Capital remains an attractive investment grade BDC. After the latest pullback, ARCC shares look attractively priced near NAV and boast an 8.4% dividend yield. We discuss why ARCC is positioned to benefit from rising interest rates.Ares Capital: Bag This 8% Yield And Call It A Day
ARCC is the biggest BDC by size and is seeing robust deal activity. Its recent acquisition of another asset manager could drive incremental growth. Meanwhile, it maintains a healthy portfolio and is well-positioned with a strong balance sheet.Ares Capital's NAV, Dividend, And Valuation Versus 15 BDC Peers - Part 2 (Includes Q2 + Q3 2022 Dividend Projection)
Part 2 of this article compares ARCC’s recent dividend per share rates, yield percentages, and several other highly unique (and useful) dividend sustainability metrics to 15 BDC peers. This includes a comparative analysis of ARCC’s cumulative undistributed taxable income ratio, percentage of floating-rate debt investments, recent weighted average annualized yield, and weighted average interest rate on outstanding borrowings. My current ARCC buy, sell, or hold recommendation, price target, and dividend sustainability projection through the third quarter of 2022 are stated in the “Conclusions Drawn” section of the article. Most BDC peers have sustainable dividends over the foreseeable future. That said, current valuations in some BDC peers are “stretched” (especially with market volatility/potential tax law changes on the horizon).Ares Capital Stock: 3 Reasons Why Dividend Growth Is Set To Continue
ARCC is one of the leading blue-chip BDCs. The company resumed dividend growth late last year and has kept it going early in 2022. We give 3 reasons why we think dividend growth is set to continue.Ares Capital Corp: The BDC King Retains Its Crown
BDCs continue to be well-positioned coming out of the pandemic. ARCC ended 2021 with record quarterly and annual cash earnings, and doubled annual loan volumes compared to 2020 or 2019. Let's evaluate ARCC's recent operational and financial performance to determine an updated valuation framework.Ares Capital: Best-Of-Breed BDC's 7.4% Yield Is A Buy
Ares Capital is a BDC market leader, with strong credit performance and shareholder returns. Ares Capital is offering 10 years of stable dividends. Paying a 20% premium to book value is worth it.Ares Capital Yielding 7.7% Hits It Out Of The Park
ARCC recently issued $500 million in unsecured notes and 11.5 million common shares. Included in the SEC filings were plenty of details likely overlooked by investors but are discussed in this article. ARCC reports Q4 results in less than three weeks. Are you ready for another home run from this blue-chip stock currently yielding 7.7%?Ares Capital: Dividend Strategy To Help Prepare For The New Market Realities
ARCC is one of the few BDCs to succeed in maintaining NAV and dividends at the same time for an extended period. ARCC's portfolio and capital structure renders it less sensitive to rising interest rates, compared to other BDCs. High dividend yields, NAV stability and an active private equity market render ARCC a buy.Ares Capital's NAV, Dividend, And Valuation Vs. 14 BDC Peers - Part 2 (Includes Q1 + Q2 2022 Dividend Projection)
Part 2 of this article compares ARCC’s recent dividend per share rates, yield percentages, and several other highly unique (and useful) dividend sustainability metrics to 14 BDC peers. This includes a comparative analysis of ARCC’s cumulative undistributed taxable income ratio, percentage of floating-rate debt investments, recent weighted average annualized yield, and weighted average interest rate on outstanding borrowings. My current ARCC buy, sell, or hold recommendation, price target, and dividend sustainability projection through the first half of 2022 are stated in the “Conclusions Drawn” section of the article. Most BDC peers have sustainable dividends over the foreseeable future. That said, current valuations in some BDC peers are “stretched” (especially with market volatility/potential tax law changes on the horizon).Ares Capital's NAV, Dividend, And Valuation Vs. 14 BDC Peers - Part 1 (Post Q3 2021 Earnings)
Part 1 of this article compares ARCC’s recent quarterly change in NAV, quarterly and trailing 24-month economic return, NII, and current valuation to 14 BDC peers. Part 1 also performs a comparative analysis between each company’s investment portfolio as of 6/30/2021 and 9/30/2021. This includes an updated percentage of investments on non-accrual status. I also provide a list of the other BDC stocks I currently believe are undervalued (a buy recommendation), overvalued (a sell recommendation), and appropriately valued (a hold recommendation). Other metrics analyzed include each company’s cumulative realized gain (loss) per share, NII per share, price to annualized NII ratio, and percentage of income attributable to capitalized PIK income. By providing these comparable sector metrics, this article sheds light on some useful quantitative data when assessing each company’s past, current, and likely future performance.Ares Capital: A Smart, Safe, Growing 8% Yielder You Can Count On
Ares Capital is the largest BDC by asset size and benefits from its affiliation to Ares Management. It maintains a strong balance sheet, and its portfolio companies are in better financial shape than they were prior to the pandemic. It continues to grow its investment portfolio, NAV/share, and Core EPS while paying a well-covered and growing dividend.Ares Capital: 7.6% Yield, Outperforming The Market
ARCC just reported Q3 '21 earnings this week. Valuations, performance, and profitability vs. the BDC industry are covered in this article. There's also a new options trade for ARCC.Ares Capital: Book Value Premium And Growing Credit Risks Exacerbate Downside Risk
Investors have dived into riskier high-yield investments in recent years due to ultra-low interest rates and rising inflation. Business Development Companies such as Ares Capital have seen their market capitalization surge as they remain among the few stocks with 7%+ dividend yields. While Ares Capital has an excellent track record, its balance sheet leverage and payment-in-kind loan exposure have risen dramatically since 2020, increasing its potential downside. The impending slowdown in Q.E, as well as the massive decrease in the GDP growth outlook, may result in more excellent default rates among Ares debtors. Ares Capital's high credit risk exposure combined with its significant book-value premium makes it a seemingly poor investment choice.Why Buy A CD When I Can Buy Ares Capital?
Ares Capital is a well-run BDC with a strong track record of growing its NAV/share over the long run. Its portfolio quality is improving and management sees continued healthy deal volume, supported by a record amount of private equity capital. Meanwhile, it pays a high and growing dividend yield that is well covered by core earnings.Ares Capital's NAV, Dividend, And Valuation Vs. 14 BDC Peers - Part 2 (Includes Q4 2021 Dividend Projection)
Part 2 of this article compares ARCC’s recent dividend per share rates, yield percentages, and several other highly unique (and useful) dividend sustainability metrics to 14 BDC peers. This includes a comparative analysis of ARCC’s cumulative undistributed taxable income ratio, percentage of floating-rate debt investments, recent weighted average annualized yield, and weighted average interest rate on outstanding borrowings. Most BDC peers have sustainable dividends over the foreseeable future. That said, current valuations in some BDC peers are “stretched” (especially with market volatility/potential tax law changes on the horizon). My current buy, sell, or hold recommendation, price target, and dividend sustainability projection for ARCC is stated in the “Conclusions Drawn” section of the article.Ares Capital's NAV, Dividend And Valuation Vs. 14 BDC Peers - Part 1 (Post Q2 2021 Earnings)
Part 1 of this article compares ARCC’s recent quarterly change in NAV, quarterly and trailing 24-month economic return, NII, and current valuation to 14 BDC peers. Part 1 also performs a comparative analysis between each company’s investment portfolio as of 3/31/2021 and 6/30/2021. This includes an updated percentage of investments on non-accrual status. Other metrics analyzed include each company’s cumulative realized gain (loss) per share, NII per share, price to annualized NII ratio, and percentage of income attributable to capitalized PIK income. By providing these comparable sector metrics, this article sheds light on some useful quantitative data when assessing each company’s past, current, and likely future performance. I also provide a list of the other BDC stocks I currently believe are undervalued (a buy recommendation), overvalued (a sell recommendation), and appropriately valued (a hold recommendation).Ares Capital: 8.2% Yield, Have Your Cake And Eat It Too
Ares Capital is the largest BDC, and benefits from its years of experience, relationships, and scale. It has a strong track record of increasing its NAV/share and has seen robust growth in EPS. I also highlight the dividend, balance sheet, valuation, and why it's currently a good Buy.Ares Capital Scores Big, Again, But ...
Ares raised its dividend a very modest one penny in line with its net investment income. The company isn't likely to continue increasing dividends anytime soon. Investors shouldn't expect any special dividends in the next 12-18 months. This decision will be made in January of 2022. Ares is a solid company, but the model is likely yielding its maximum per share.Ares Capital: A Monster Dividend With Plenty Of Potential
Ares Capital offers an attractive 8% dividend yield, but sustainability and growth are under question. Its high payout ratio is justified by liquidity and long-term consistency. Our 10-year forecast suggests that the dividend is not only sustainable but could grow at rates of over 6%.Invest In The American Dream With This Blue-Chip BDC: Ares Capital - Yield 8.1%
Ares Capital is a tried and tested blue-chip BDC that has outperformed for 15 years. ARCC is the largest BDC and the bellwether of the sector that fuels the American dream. Excellent bet on the U.S. economic recovery with 8.1% yield, well covered by NII, no K-1.Prévisions de croissance des bénéfices et des revenus
| Date | Recettes | Les revenus | Flux de trésorerie disponible | Cash from Op | Moy. Nombre d'analystes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 2,971 | 1,366 | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| 12/31/2027 | 3,216 | 1,386 | N/A | 1,298 | 11 |
| 12/31/2026 | 3,116 | 1,125 | N/A | 55 | 11 |
| 3/31/2026 | 3,083 | 1,150 | -1,234 | -1,234 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 3,052 | 1,299 | -1,717 | -1,717 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 3,018 | 1,363 | -1,558 | -1,558 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 3,011 | 1,353 | -1,306 | -1,306 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 3,021 | 1,314 | -2,406 | -2,406 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 2,990 | 1,522 | -2,128 | -2,128 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 2,938 | 1,578 | -2,219 | -2,219 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 2,818 | 1,684 | -1,652 | -1,652 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 2,697 | 1,693 | -382 | -382 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 2,614 | 1,522 | 511 | 511 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 2,547 | 1,283 | 510 | 510 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 2,429 | 887 | 484 | 484 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 2,274 | 667 | -968 | -968 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 2,096 | 600 | -1,359 | -1,359 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 1,985 | 808 | -2,766 | -2,766 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 1,890 | 1,038 | -2,781 | -2,781 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 1,870 | 1,405 | -2,467 | -2,467 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 1,820 | 1,567 | -2,459 | -2,459 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 1,731 | 1,563 | -1,444 | -1,444 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 1,641 | 1,670 | -1,445 | -1,445 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 1,532 | 1,469 | -106 | -106 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 1,511 | 484 | -580 | -580 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 1,457 | 310 | -154 | -154 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 1,492 | 44 | -875 | -875 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 1,524 | -33 | -680 | -680 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 1,528 | 793 | N/A | -1,235 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 1,487 | 742 | N/A | -1,877 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 1,442 | 776 | N/A | -703 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 1,393 | 830 | N/A | -102 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 1,337 | 858 | N/A | 304 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 1,299 | 937 | N/A | 1,223 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 1,251 | 867 | N/A | 938 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 1,202 | 791 | N/A | 184 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 1,160 | 667 | N/A | -2,048 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 1,113 | 510 | N/A | -1,906 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 1,078 | 481 | N/A | -1,890 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 1,039 | 460 | N/A | -1,713 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 1,012 | 474 | N/A | 707 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 1,013 | 414 | N/A | 289 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 1,015 | 421 | N/A | 108 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 1,020 | 410 | N/A | -137 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 1,025 | 379 | N/A | 360 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 1,035 | 517 | N/A | 679 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 1,027 | 578 | N/A | 95 | N/A |
Prévisions de croissance des analystes
Taux de revenus par rapport au taux d'épargne: La croissance des bénéfices prévue de ARCC ( 9.8% par an) est supérieure au taux d'épargne ( 3.5% ).
Bénéfices vs marché: Les bénéfices de ARCC ( 9.8% par an) devraient croître plus lentement que le marché US ( 16.8% par an).
Croissance élevée des bénéfices: Les bénéfices de ARCC devraient augmenter, mais pas de manière significative.
Chiffre d'affaires vs marché: Le chiffre d'affaires de ARCC ( 1.6% par an) devrait croître plus lentement que le marché de US ( 11.7% par an).
Croissance élevée des revenus: Le chiffre d'affaires de ARCC ( 1.6% par an) devrait croître plus lentement que 20% par an.
Prévisions de croissance du bénéfice par action
Rendement futur des capitaux propres
ROE futur: Le retour sur capitaux propres de ARCC devrait être faible dans 3 ans ( 9.9 %).
Analyse de l'entreprise et données financières
| Données | Dernière mise à jour (heure UTC) |
|---|---|
| Analyse de l'entreprise | 2026/05/22 18:06 |
| Cours de l'action en fin de journée | 2026/05/22 00:00 |
| Les revenus | 2026/03/31 |
| Revenus annuels | 2025/12/31 |
Sources de données
Les données utilisées dans notre analyse de l'entreprise proviennent de S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. Les données suivantes sont utilisées dans notre modèle d'analyse pour générer ce rapport. Les données sont normalisées, ce qui peut entraîner un délai avant que la source ne soit disponible.
| Paquet | Données | Cadre temporel | Exemple de source américaine * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finances de l'entreprise | 10 ans |
| |
| Estimations consensuelles des analystes | +3 ans |
|
|
| Prix du marché | 30 ans |
| |
| Propriété | 10 ans |
| |
| Gestion | 10 ans |
| |
| Principaux développements | 10 ans |
|
* Exemple pour les titres américains ; pour les titres non américains, des formulaires réglementaires et des sources équivalentes sont utilisés.
Sauf indication contraire, toutes les données financières sont basées sur une période annuelle mais mises à jour trimestriellement. C'est ce qu'on appelle les données des douze derniers mois (TTM) ou des douze derniers mois (LTM). En savoir plus.
Modèle d'analyse et flocon de neige
Les détails du modèle d’analyse utilisé pour générer ce rapport sont disponibles sur notre page Github; nous proposons également des guides expliquant comment utiliser nos rapports et des tutoriels sur Youtube.
Découvrez l'équipe de classe mondiale qui a conçu et construit le modèle d'analyse Simply Wall St.
Indicateurs de l'industrie et du secteur
Nos indicateurs de secteur et de section sont calculés toutes les 6 heures par Simply Wall St. Les détails de notre processus sont disponibles sur Github.
Sources des analystes
Ares Capital Corporation est couverte par 30 analystes. 13 de ces analystes ont soumis les estimations de revenus ou de bénéfices utilisées comme données d'entrée dans notre rapport. Les soumissions des analystes sont mises à jour tout au long de la journée.
| Analyste | Institution |
|---|---|
| Kannan Venkateshwar | Barclays |
| David Chiaverini | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |
| Derek Hewett | BofA Global Research |