Li Auto Croissance future
Future contrôle des critères 4/6
Li Auto devrait augmenter ses bénéfices et son chiffre d'affaires de 37.4% et de 12.1% par an respectivement. Le BPA devrait croître de de 43.7% par an. Le rendement des capitaux propres devrait être 10.4% dans 3 ans.
Informations clés
37.4%
Taux de croissance des bénéfices
43.73%
Taux de croissance du BPA
| Auto croissance des bénéfices | 37.0% |
| Taux de croissance des recettes | 12.1% |
| Rendement futur des capitaux propres | 10.40% |
| Couverture par les analystes | Good |
| Dernière mise à jour | 13 May 2026 |
Mises à jour récentes de la croissance future
Recent updates
Mise à jour du récit • May 02
LI: Future Performance Will Face Margin Pressure From Weaker Sectorwide Demand
Li Auto's updated analyst price target moves modestly higher, with a fair value estimate shifting from about $14.05 to $14.99 as analysts factor in reduced revenue growth expectations, thinner profit margins, a slightly lower discount rate, and a higher assumed future P/E multiple, following a mix of recent downgrades, target cuts, and one upgrade. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Li Auto has tilted more cautious, with several bearish analysts flagging execution and profitability risks that they see as limiting near term upside relative to prior expectations.
Mise à jour du récit • Apr 18
LI: Cost Discipline And Model Mix Execution Will Drive Future Re Rating Potential
Li Auto's analyst price targets have edged lower, with cuts such as Morgan Stanley's reduction, Goldman's move to $19, and JPMorgan's revised $15.50 target contributing to a modest fair value reset as analysts factor in softer volume expectations, pressure on vehicle margins, and a higher mix of lower margin models. Analyst Commentary Recent research around Li Auto has shifted toward a more cautious tone, with several high profile firms re-basing expectations on volumes and margins.Seeking Alpha • Apr 08
Li Auto: Should We Be Skeptical Amid Broader Sector Recovery?
Summary Li Auto has had more experience than expected in 2025, due to intensified rivalry and pullbacks on subsidies. Other than SUV rivalry, the company does have to manage its over-reliance on EREVs, where BEVs are catching up with improving battery technologies. I think LI's product-market fit and technological competitiveness are both questioned—which could make management's plan of reviving sales more challenging than expected. My rating for Li Auto is a 'Hold,' being cautiously optimistic while awaiting concrete data from 1Q26 to see how they are actually driving sales. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaMise à jour du récit • Apr 04
LI: Overseas Execution And Mix Management Will Drive Future Re Rating Potential
Li Auto's updated analyst price target has been reduced by about $3.70, with analysts pointing to softer 2026 volume and margin expectations, a higher mix of lower margin models, and recent downgrades that reflect concerns about delivery trends and profit pressure. Analyst Commentary Recent research paints a mixed but still constructive picture around Li Auto, with several firms adjusting price targets and ratings in response to updated 2026 guidance and margin assumptions.
Mise à jour du récit • Mar 21
LI: Shares Will Recover As Execution Improves And New Model Cycle Progresses
Li Auto's updated analyst price target reflects a reduced fair value estimate to $22.16, as analysts factor in softer projected revenue growth, thinner profit margins, and a higher assumed future P/E following a series of downgrades and tempered outlooks on deliveries and vehicle economics. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Li Auto clusters around concerns on execution and profitability, with pockets of cautious optimism on valuation.Mise à jour du récit • Mar 06
LI: Future Performance Will Face Tougher Deliveries And Sectorwide Demand Headwinds
Analysts have increased their Li Auto fair value estimate slightly to about $14.05 per share. This modest change reflects small adjustments to assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and future P/E after recent price target cuts and mixed delivery and outlook commentary across Chinese automakers.Mise à jour du récit • Feb 19
LI: Future Performance Will Face Rising Downgrade Risk And Mixed Execution
Li Auto's updated analyst price target has been trimmed by about $0.95 as analysts factor in recent downgrades, reduced fair value estimates, a slightly higher discount rate, and adjusted assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Li Auto has tilted more cautious, with several firms cutting price targets and a few moving to outright downgrades.Mise à jour du récit • Feb 05
LI: Overseas Execution Will Drive Future Re Rating Potential
Narrative Update on Li Auto Analysts have trimmed their price targets for Li Auto, with our fair value estimate moving from about US$39.04 to US$35.43. They cited more conservative assumptions on revenue growth and profit margins, partially offset by a higher expected future P/E multiple and recent target cuts and a downgrade from several firms.Mise à jour du récit • Jan 22
LI: Future Performance Will Balance Mixed Execution With Global Expansion Uncertainty
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Li Auto to about $15 from roughly $17, reflecting slightly higher assumed discount rates, modest adjustments to long term revenue growth and profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple following recent price target cuts, mixed quarterly results, and cautious outlooks in Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Li Auto shows a mixed backdrop, with several bearish analysts cutting price targets and flagging execution and growth risks, even as one firm modestly raised its target and maintains a Neutral stance.Mise à jour du récit • Jan 08
LI: Future Performance Will Balance Mixed Outlook With Global Expansion Uncertainty
Narrative Update Analysts have trimmed their Li Auto price targets, with one moving to US$25 and another initiating at US$19. This reflects views that recent mixed results, a weaker near term outlook and questions around the global expansion plan warrant more cautious assumptions on growth, margins and future P/E multiples.Mise à jour du récit • Dec 24
LI: Future Performance Will Balance Domestic EV Pressures And Overseas Expansion Uncertainty
Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on Li Auto to $17, down from about $19.50. They cite increased competitive and policy risks in China as well as uncertainty around the company’s global expansion strategy.Mise à jour du récit • Dec 10
LI: Shares Will Recover As Global Expansion Progress Supports Long Term Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Li Auto by roughly $4 per share to about $19. They cite a slightly higher discount rate and lower future valuation multiples, despite stronger long term revenue growth and margin expectations, amid concerns over the company’s uncertain global expansion strategy and intense competition in China’s auto market.Mise à jour du récit • Nov 26
LI: Shares Will Recover As New Model Launch Supports Sales Momentum
The analyst price target for Li Auto has been revised downward from $28.70 to $28.09. This revision reflects analysts' more cautious revenue growth expectations as well as increased competitive and policy risks in China's electric vehicle market.Mise à jour du récit • Nov 10
LI: Shares Will Rebound As Competitive Pressures Are Met With New Releases
Li Auto's average analyst price target has edged down slightly to just under $28.70. Analysts point to increased competitive pressures and a reduced growth outlook following recent earnings reports.Mise à jour du récit • Oct 27
Rising Competition And Product Launches Will Shape Electric Vehicle Sector Dynamics
Li Auto's analyst price target has been modestly raised to $28.90, reflecting mixed analyst sentiment amid recent downgrades on competitive and growth concerns. However, the upgrade also ties to an improved outlook related to potential product launches and sector positioning.Mise à jour du récit • Oct 13
Battery Electric Vehicles And Intelligent Driving Will Unlock Markets
Li Auto's analyst price target has decreased slightly from approximately $29.30 to $28.87 per share. This adjustment reflects a cautious outlook amid tempered growth expectations and rising competitive pressures, according to recent analyst commentary.Mise à jour du récit • Aug 27
New BEVs And Autonomous Driving To Expand NEV Market Presence
Li Auto's consensus price target has been revised downward to $32.84 due to intensifying competition in China's premium EV market, expected Q2 underperformance, and concerns over demand and margin pressure, reflecting a more cautious fair value outlook. Analyst Commentary Rising competitive pressures in the premium electric SUV and battery electric vehicle markets, with direct competition from established best-sellers like Tesla Model Y and Xiaomi YU7.Article d’analyse • Aug 05
Does Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to...Seeking Alpha • Apr 17
Li Auto's Selloff Triggers Excellent Buying Opportunity - Reiterate Buy
Summary The macro/geopolitical uncertainties have triggered Li Auto's much needed selloff, as the bulls continue to defend the $22s floor since September 2024. This is especially since the automaker has reported growing deliveries, still healthy profit margins, and richer balance sheet, despite the higher expenses on a YoY basis. With LI expected to launch BEVs while entering numerous international markets in 2025, we may see 2025/2026 bring forth renewed growth opportunities beyond the domestic market. Despite the US' raised tariffs on China to 125%, we maintain our conjecture that it is likely to pose minimal headwinds to China's automotive industry, LI included. Combined with the moderating short interest volume from the 2024 heights and the declining CBOE Volatility Index, it appears that the worst of the selloff may already be here. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 16
Li Auto Is Improving Safety With Self-Driving Tech
Summary Li Auto's autonomous driving systems, including Li AD Max and Pro, significantly enhance vehicle safety. The company's high volume and rapid tech evolution, powered by Nvidia's DRIVE Thor and Orin systems, help position them as a leader in vehicle safety. Despite revenue and operating income fluctuations, Li Auto's substantial R&D investments in AI and self-driving tech ensure they will continue to be a leader in terms of making roads safer. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 04
Li Auto: Time To Be Greedy
Summary Li Auto's delivery results for February disappointed as the company only delivered 26,263 electric vehicles, 12% less than in the previous month. Seasonal effects are responsible for the drop-off in deliveries, which should normalize again in March. I maintain a strong buy rating for Li Auto due to its profitability, competitive price-to-revenue ratio, and superior vehicle margins compared to NIO and XPeng. Shares of Li Auto currently trade 33% below the firm's longer term, 3-year average price-to-revenue ratio and have an attractive risk profile. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 09
Li Auto: A Strong Buy Due To MEGA And AI
Summary Li Auto is a highly profitable Chinese EV manufacturer with substantial growth potential, making it a strong competitor to Tesla and BYD. The company's valuation is currently very low, trading below one times sales, making it an attractive investment opportunity. Li Auto's innovative AI and robotics integration, along with its impressive lineup of family-friendly EVs, position it for future success. Despite inherent risks associated with Chinese stocks, Li Auto's solid financials and market position suggest a significant upside in the coming years. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 31
Li Auto: Consistent Performer And Undervalued
Summary Li Auto, a Beijing-based company founded in 2015 by Xiang Li, focuses on REEV SUVs, offering extended range and leading sales in China. Xiang Li's unique approach contrasts with NIO's, opting for SUV models after the LSEV plan failed due to regulatory issues. Li Auto's financials show strong revenue growth, solid margins, and liquidity, positioning it well for future expansion and benefiting from China's stimulus. Despite risks like the Chinese market and VIE structure, Li Auto's valuation through discounted cash flows and multiples suggests it could be a good investment. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 20
Li Auto Finally Nears Our Buy Zone, Great 2025 Prospects
Summary LI has retraced as expected, with the bulls seemingly defending the $22s as the new support level. Much of the tailwinds are naturally attributed to the double beat FQ3'24 performance, excellent October 2024/ YTD deliveries, and promising FQ4'24 guidance. This is significantly aided by LI's richer profit margins and growing net cash on balance sheet, allowing the automaker to sustainably fund its growth opportunities domestically/ internationally. The management's 2025 BEV launch and cautious international approaches have been highly prudent, since it allows the automaker to remain profitable compared to its cash burning peers. Even so, we expect LI to continue trading sideways, before sentiments surrounding Chinese EVs improve and the management delivers robust international growth numbers. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Nouveau récit • Nov 10
Critical Expansion And AI Innovation Propel Premium NEV Market Growth
Strategic expansion of sales network and charging infrastructure in China is expected to bolster market share and future revenue growth.Seeking Alpha • Sep 29
Li Auto: H2 2024 May Bring Forth Improved Numbers, Thanks To Government Stimulus
Summary The numerous government stimulus has already triggered improved sentiments surrounding Chinese ADRs, significantly aided by the raised EV subsidies. These have contributed to LI's robust YTD deliveries, along with the promising FQ3'24 guidance. Thanks to the completion of its production capacity ramp up and cost efficiency strategies, we may see H2'24 bring forth improved bottom-lines as well. And this is why we believe that LI at FWD P/E non-GAAP valuations of 22.45x is not overly expensive, attributed to the extremely cheap PEG non-GAAP ratio of 0.30x. This is on top of the excellent upside potential of +57% to our long-term price target of $40.50, despite the recent rally. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 08
Li Auto: Strong EV Choice, Low Price
Summary Li Auto reported strong Q2 earnings with 11% Y/Y revenue growth and a 26% increase in delivery volume. Li Auto maintains the highest vehicle margins among Chinese EV start-ups, with Q2 vehicle margins of 18.7%, significantly outperforming NIO and XPeng. Li Auto's valuation remains low despite its profitability, highest margins, and robust delivery outlook, suggesting significant revaluation potential. Margin pressure is a risk, but Li Auto's profitability and strong growth outlook make it a compelling investment compared to its Chinese EV rivals. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Aug 29
Li Auto: From Setback To Comeback (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Li Auto's Q2 earnings show recovery with a 1.5% operating profit and increased inventory turnover, despite earlier setbacks and a 50% stock price drop. The company regained its top spot in Chinese new energy SUV sales, surpassing Tesla in unit sales in July 2024. Despite competition from AITO, BYD, and Tesla, Li's strong execution, autonomous driving tech, and market position justify upgrading the rating to strong buy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Aug 19
Expecting Significant Wealth Creation From Li Stock In The Long Term
Summary Initiating coverage on Li Auto with a "Buy" rating, an undervalued stock with the potential to navigate challenges in the EV industry. Li stock plunged due to revised delivery guidance, margin compression, and negative sentiments for Chinese stocks, but was oversold and poised for recovery. A strong balance sheet with a cash buffer of $13.7 billion and positive operating cash flows since 2020. Investment in autonomous driving technology is likely to ensure that Li stays ahead of the curve. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 02
Li Auto: Weakening Financials Encourage Caution
Summary Li Auto is among the worst performing big EV stocks year to date. But with its robust delivery data impressing investors recently, is it due for a pick up now? There are certainly positives to it, besides strong recent deliveries. These include continued healthy growth in China's EV market and insulation from tariff increases by the US and EU. But the challenges are too big to ignore. It missed revenue targets in Q1 2024 and growth is seen falling sharply in Q2, which can affect profits. As a result, it's hard to make a Buy case for Li Auto right now when its market multiples aren't bad at all. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jun 18
Li Auto Lost The Price War - More Pain Ahead
Summary Li Auto appears to be retesting its 3Y support levels of $18s and on its way to retest the $15s floor, thanks to the worsening sentiments surrounding Chinese automakers. With the US/ EU government imposing hefty tariffs and Chinese automakers flooding the Middle East market, it seems that there are minimal growth drivers ahead. LI already reported negative FQ1'24 operating margins, with FQ2'24 likely to be worse as the management embarked on price cuts to boost volume growth. While the automaker appears to be well capitalized in FQ1'24, investors may want to temper their intermediate term expectations, with things potentially becoming worse before it gets better. As a result, LI is likely to remain a swing trade vehicle for investors with higher risk tolerance in the intermediate term, assuming that current floors hold. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaPrévisions de croissance des bénéfices et des revenus
| Date | Recettes | Les revenus | Flux de trésorerie disponible | Cash from Op | Moy. Nombre d'analystes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 170,385 | 7,976 | 12,626 | 16,616 | 25 |
| 12/31/2027 | 154,217 | 6,336 | 9,013 | 16,019 | 28 |
| 12/31/2026 | 127,982 | 1,785 | 10,050 | 12,501 | 31 |
| 12/31/2025 | 112,313 | 1,124 | -12,817 | -8,611 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 127,811 | 4,641 | -9,681 | -3,452 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 143,320 | 8,080 | 8,739 | 14,968 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 144,753 | 8,090 | 9,845 | 17,575 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 144,460 | 8,032 | 8,203 | 15,933 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 141,918 | 10,167 | 18,755 | 24,547 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 133,724 | 10,176 | 20,955 | 28,029 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 130,698 | 11,367 | 33,064 | 39,571 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 123,851 | 11,704 | 44,186 | 50,694 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 99,769 | 6,303 | 32,806 | 38,325 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 74,432 | 1,839 | 17,622 | 23,310 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 54,512 | -1,072 | 9,531 | 13,327 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 45,287 | -2,012 | 2,252 | 7,380 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 38,257 | -1,974 | 1,174 | 6,292 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 36,690 | -355 | 4,297 | 8,970 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 32,997 | 28 | 4,828 | 9,248 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 27,010 | -321 | 4,896 | 8,340 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 20,536 | -509 | 4,316 | 6,325 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 15,272 | -809 | 3,901 | 5,085 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 12,180 | -918 | 3,220 | 4,129 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 9,457 | -806 | 2,465 | 3,140 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 5,594 | -1,982 | 168 | 867 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 1,136 | -3,034 | -2,319 | -1,463 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 284 | -3,261 | -2,747 | -1,794 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | N/A | -2,702 | N/A | -1,680 | N/A |
Prévisions de croissance des analystes
Taux de revenus par rapport au taux d'épargne: La croissance des bénéfices prévue de LI ( 37.4% par an) est supérieure au taux d'épargne ( 3.5% ).
Bénéfices vs marché: Les bénéfices de LI ( 37.4% par an) devraient croître plus rapidement que le marché US ( 16.8% par an).
Croissance élevée des bénéfices: Les bénéfices de LI devraient augmenter de manière significative au cours des 3 prochaines années.
Chiffre d'affaires vs marché: Le chiffre d'affaires de LI ( 12.1% par an) devrait croître plus rapidement que le marché US ( 11.7% par an).
Croissance élevée des revenus: Le chiffre d'affaires de LI ( 12.1% par an) devrait croître plus lentement que 20% par an.
Prévisions de croissance du bénéfice par action
Rendement futur des capitaux propres
ROE futur: Le retour sur capitaux propres de LI devrait être faible dans 3 ans ( 10.4 %).
Découvrir les entreprises en croissance
Analyse de l'entreprise et données financières
| Données | Dernière mise à jour (heure UTC) |
|---|---|
| Analyse de l'entreprise | 2026/05/17 19:22 |
| Cours de l'action en fin de journée | 2026/05/15 00:00 |
| Les revenus | 2025/12/31 |
| Revenus annuels | 2025/12/31 |
Sources de données
Les données utilisées dans notre analyse de l'entreprise proviennent de S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. Les données suivantes sont utilisées dans notre modèle d'analyse pour générer ce rapport. Les données sont normalisées, ce qui peut entraîner un délai avant que la source ne soit disponible.
| Paquet | Données | Cadre temporel | Exemple de source américaine * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finances de l'entreprise | 10 ans |
| |
| Estimations consensuelles des analystes | +3 ans |
|
|
| Prix du marché | 30 ans |
| |
| Propriété | 10 ans |
| |
| Gestion | 10 ans |
| |
| Principaux développements | 10 ans |
|
* Exemple pour les titres américains ; pour les titres non américains, des formulaires réglementaires et des sources équivalentes sont utilisés.
Sauf indication contraire, toutes les données financières sont basées sur une période annuelle mais mises à jour trimestriellement. C'est ce qu'on appelle les données des douze derniers mois (TTM) ou des douze derniers mois (LTM). En savoir plus.
Modèle d'analyse et flocon de neige
Les détails du modèle d’analyse utilisé pour générer ce rapport sont disponibles sur notre page Github; nous proposons également des guides expliquant comment utiliser nos rapports et des tutoriels sur Youtube.
Découvrez l'équipe de classe mondiale qui a conçu et construit le modèle d'analyse Simply Wall St.
Indicateurs de l'industrie et du secteur
Nos indicateurs de secteur et de section sont calculés toutes les 6 heures par Simply Wall St. Les détails de notre processus sont disponibles sur Github.
Sources des analystes
Li Auto Inc. est couverte par 50 analystes. 31 de ces analystes ont soumis les estimations de revenus ou de bénéfices utilisées comme données d'entrée dans notre rapport. Les soumissions des analystes sont mises à jour tout au long de la journée.
| Analyste | Institution |
|---|---|
| Tianli Wen | Aletheia Analyst Network Limited |
| Jiong Shao | Barclays |
| Yuet Lee | Bernstein |