New Risk • Jul 08
New major risk - Earnings quality The company has a high level of non-cash earnings. Accrual ratio: 32% This is considered a major risk. Non-cash earnings can arise from many different things. However, if a company consistently has a high level of non-cash earnings, it may be a sign that they are recognizing revenue from customers before the full value of the sales are received as cash or they are not depreciating the value of their assets appropriately. These are practices that inflate earnings, while not providing a similar increase to cash flows. Companies in some select industries naturally have a high level of non-cash earnings and it is not a major concern. However, in the worst case scenario it can be an early sign of performance manipulation by management. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 140% per year for the foreseeable future. High level of non-cash earnings (32% accrual ratio). New Risk • Jul 03
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 140% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Annonce • May 29
Celon Pharma S.A., Annual General Meeting, Jun 24, 2026 Celon Pharma S.A., Annual General Meeting, Jun 24, 2026, at 11:00 Central European Standard Time. Price Target Changed • Apr 26
Price target decreased by 11% to zł20.44 Down from zł22.84, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of zł21.00. Stock is down 18% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of zł1.34 next year compared to a net loss per share of zł0.66 last year. Price Target Changed • Dec 01
Price target decreased by 9.0% to zł24.24 Down from zł26.64, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 12% above last closing price of zł21.60. Stock is down 21% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of zł0.57 next year compared to a net loss per share of zł0.66 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 25
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: zł0.07 (vs zł1.06 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: zł0.07 (down from zł1.06 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: zł74.1m (up 45% from 3Q 2024). Net income: zł3.66m (down 94% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 4.9% (down from 112% in 3Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 7.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.9% growth forecast for the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 29% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 13% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Annonce • Nov 15
Celon Pharma S.A. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Nov 19, 2025 Celon Pharma S.A. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Nov 19, 2025 Annonce • Oct 10
FDA Clears Celon Pharma's Schizophrenia Drug for Phase 3 Trial Celon Pharma S.A. announced it has secured a key regulatory milestone for its lead neuroscience program. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) provided positive feedback clearing the path for Phase 3 testing of CPL'36, the company's novel second-generation PDE10A inhibitor for schizophrenia. The FDA confirmed that Celon Pharma's existing preclinical data are sufficient to begin pivotal studies and approved the proposed Phase 3 program, which includes two 28-day randomized, double-blind trials in patients with acute schizophrenia episodes and a 12-month open-label extension to establish long-term safety. The FDA also agreed that "treatment of schizophrenia" is the appropriate indication for CPL'36, confirming the compound's potential for broad labeling at registration. The Agency supported Celon Pharma's plan to conduct required supportive studies--including drug-drug interaction (DDI), QTc, and mass balance--concurrently with the pivotal trials, provided key safety measures are in place. This parallel development plan is expected to streamline timelines and maintain strategic flexibility. Strong Efficacy in Phase 2 Sets the Stage: CPL'36 previously demonstrated robust and clinically meaningful efficacy in a 189-patient Phase 2 trial, with both the 20 mg and 40 mg doses producing statistically significant improvements versus placebo across positive and total PANSS scores. The 40 mg dose also showed early signs of cognitive benefit. At Week 4, the positive PANSS subscale improved by 3.7 points for the 20 mg dose. Reported Earnings • Sep 19
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: zł0.62 loss per share (vs zł0.15 loss in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: zł0.62 loss per share (further deteriorated from zł0.15 loss in 2Q 2024). Revenue: zł56.6m (down 14% from 2Q 2024). Net loss: zł32.8m (loss widened 308% from 2Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 8.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.3% growth forecast for the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 5% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 19% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. New Risk • Sep 18
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 35% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Annonce • Aug 21
Celon Pharma S.A. to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Sep 17, 2025 Celon Pharma S.A. announced that they will report first half, 2025 results on Sep 17, 2025 Reported Earnings • May 22
First quarter 2025 earnings released First quarter 2025 results: Net income: (up zł15.7m from 1Q 2024). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 11% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 10% per year. New Risk • May 22
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 136% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 11
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to zł26.85, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 26x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 11% over the past three years. Annonce • Mar 05
Celon Pharma S.A. Announces Strong Proof-of-Concept Data from Phase 2 Trial of PDE10A Inhibitor (CPL’36), a Novel Once-Daily Treatment of Levodopa-Induced Dyskinesia in Parkinson’s Disease Celon Pharma S.A. announced robust and positive Phase 2 clinical trial results for its PDE10A inhibitor (CPL’36), a novel, oral, once-daily medication for the treatment of Levodopa-Induced Dyskinesia (LID) in Parkinson’s disease. The study met its primary endpoint and many of its secondary endpoints. CPL’36 demonstrated robust and consistent efficacy across all utilized scales measuring improvement in treatment of LID in Parkinson’s disease. The effect size was large and clinically meaningful. CPL’36 was previously investigated as a potential treatment for schizophrenia and demonstrated positive Phase 2 results that were reported in July 2024. Trial description The CPL’36 Phase 2 study was multinational, multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled trial conducted in a group 105 adult patients with LID dyskinesia in Parkinson’s disease. CPL’36 was administered orally in one of two doses of 20 mg or 40 mg, once daily and placebo controlled at a ratio (1:1:1) for a period of 4 weeks. Patient baseline severity was moderate-severe to severe, as characterized by a UDysRS (Unified Dyskinesia Rating Scale) total score of approximately 45. At Week 4, the improvement in UDysRS total score (primary endpoint) for the 20 mg dose was 12.30 units (LS Mean difference from placebo, p<0.001, Cohen’s d: 0.90) and improvement for the 40 mg dose was 13.58 units (LS Mean difference from placebo, p<0.001, Cohen’s d: 1.00). CPL’36 treatment was associated with improvement in most secondary endpoints, including the UDysRS objective subscale, in which the improvement in both active groups was statistically significant from Day 7 of the treatment phase. Drug tolerability was favorable with most severe adverse events occurring in the placebo-treated patients (8.8% in placebo group, 0% in 20 mg dose and 5.7% in 40 mg dose). Treatment related emergent adverse events leading to discontinuation of study medication were recorded in 2.9% of the placebo group, 11.1% of the 20 mg dosing arm, and 8.6% in the 40 mg dosing arm. The most common adverse event reported in both active groups was somnolence with mild to moderate intensity. No deaths were reported in the trial, and one Serious Adverse Event of atrial fibrillation with moderate intensity was reported in the 40 mg dosing arm. Annonce • Jan 15
Celon Pharma S.A. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Apr 16, 2025 Celon Pharma S.A. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results at 8:30 AM, Central European Standard Time on Apr 16, 2025 Price Target Changed • Dec 19
Price target increased by 8.1% to zł27.64 Up from zł25.58, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 9.0% above last closing price of zł25.35. Stock is up 64% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of zł0.47 next year compared to a net loss per share of zł0.55 last year. New Risk • Nov 27
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 9.4% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 9.4% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.7% average weekly change). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (5.5% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • Nov 22
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: zł1.06 (vs zł0.13 loss in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: zł1.06 (up from zł0.13 loss in 3Q 2023). Revenue: zł120.0m (up 148% from 3Q 2023). Net income: zł57.2m (up zł64.0m from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 48% (up from net loss in 3Q 2023). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.4% growth forecast for the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 2% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 6% per year. Reported Earnings • Sep 20
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: zł0.15 loss per share (vs zł0.18 profit in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: zł0.15 loss per share (down from zł0.18 profit in 2Q 2023). Revenue: zł65.6m (down 3.5% from 2Q 2023). Net loss: zł8.03m (down 188% from profit in 2Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 7.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.8% growth forecast for the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 39% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 11% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Aug 12
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 5.3% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (15% average weekly change). Minor Risk Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (5.3% increase in shares outstanding). Price Target Changed • Jul 22
Price target increased by 26% to zł21.10 Up from zł16.78, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 22% below last closing price of zł26.90. Stock is up 59% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of zł0.44 next year compared to a net loss per share of zł0.55 last year. Annonce • Jul 09
Celon Pharma S.A. Announces Strong Proof-Of-Concept Data from Phase 2 Trial of PDE10A Inhibitor (CPL'36), a Novel Oral Antipsychotic Celon Pharma S.A. announces robust and positive Phase 2 clinical trial results for its PDE10A inhibitor (CPL’36), a novel, oral, once-daily antipsychotic. Statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements in the primary endpoint of positive subscale of the PANSS were seen in both tested doses of CPL’36, with a dose-response effect. Management plans to discuss these highly encouraging results with regulatory agencies to advance CPL’36 towards registrational trials and global marketing approvals. Additionally, CPL’36 is being investigated as a potential treatment for levodopa-induced dyskinesia in Parkinson’s disease, with Phase 2 results expected to be reported in Fourth Quarter 2024. The CPL’36 Phase 2 study was an international, multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial conducted on a group of 189 adult patients hospitalized due to acute schizophrenia. CPL’36 was administered for 4 weeks in two doses of 20 and 40 mg once daily and was placebo-controlled at a ratio of 1:1:1. Patient baseline severity was moderate-severe to severe, as characterized by a PANSS total score of approximately 106. Patients were screened for up to 10 days and then randomized and treated over a four-week period, at which time the primary endpoint assessment was conducted at Day 28. At Week 4 of treatment, the reduction in positive PANSS subscale score which was the primary endpoint in the trial was 3.7 units from baseline in the 20 mg dose (LS mean difference from placebo, p<0.001, Cohen’s d: 0.73), and 6.3 units in the 40 mg dose (LS Mean difference from placebo, p<0.001, Cohen’s d: 1.38). For total PANSS score at week 4 of treatment (a key secondary endpoint), the 20 mg dose of CPL’36 demonstrated a 9.7 unit reduction from baseline compared to placebo (LS mean difference from placebo, p<0.001, Cohen’s d: 0.77), and 16.4 units in the 40 mg dose (LS mean difference from placebo, p<0.001, Cohen’s d: 1.47). Other secondary endpoints in the trial included the effects of CPL’36 on overall clinical improvement cognitive performance and functioning such as Clinical Global Impression Scale Improvement (CGI-I), Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia (BACS), and number of participants who withdraw due to adverse events (AEs). Results across all of these endpoints were also positive. Drug tolerability was favorable with most treatment emergent adverse events characterized as mild. Exacerbations of schizophrenia represented the most common severe adverse events that were potentially related to the drug (1.5% in the placebo group, 1.8% in the 20 mg group and 3.1% in the 40 mg group). Treatment discontinuation due to adverse events likely related to the drug occurred in 3.1% patients in the placebo group, 0% patients in the 20 mg group and 7.7% patients in the 40 mg group. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 09
Now 67% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 44% to zł22.00. The fair value is estimated to be zł13.20, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 6.2% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 44%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 16% in a year. Earnings are forecast to grow by 91% in the next year. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 20
Upcoming dividend of zł0.08 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 June 2024. Payment date: 04 July 2024. The company is not currently making a profit and is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 0.5%. Lower than top quartile of Polish dividend payers (7.7%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.2%). Annonce • Jun 18
Celon Pharma Announces Results of Phase Ii Clinical Trial for Cpl’ 116, A Jak/Rock Dual Inhibitor in the Treatment of Rheumatoid Arthritis (Ra) Celon Pharma S.A. announced the successful completion of a Phase 2 trial a JAK/ROCK dual inhibitor in the treatment of Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA). The primary endpoint results are statistically significant, the primary endpoint is met. The study was a multicentre, randomised, double-blind clinical trial conducted on over 100 patients who have had inadequate therapeutic response to methotrexate. The compound was administered over the course of 12 weeks in 3 doses of 60, 120 and 240 mg BID as an add-on to methotrexate therapy. The trial was placebo-controlled. The objective of the trial was to determine the dose-dependent response to treatment. The primary endpoint was efficacy determined based on the change (compared to baseline) at week 12, measured as the Disease Activity Score-28 for RA with CRP. (DAS 28-CRP). Other, secondary endpoints included efficacy assessment measured using other scales, remission and safety of use. Findings: CPL’116 improved the patients’ condition measured with DAS28-CRP in a dose-dependent manner. Change in the DAS28-CRP score in week 12 compared to baseline was 1.702; 2.032; 2.361 and 1.668 for doses of 60, 120, 240 mg and placebo, respectively. Change in the DAS28-CRP score compared to placebo (LS MD) was 0.145 (p=0.67); 0.564 (p=0.10), and 0.887 (p=0.01) for doses of 60, 120 and 240 mg, respectively. Hence the primary endpoint results are statistically significant, the primary endpoint is met. The response to treatment in the 240 mg dose was fast – a statistically significant benefit over placebo with regard to the DAS28-CRP score was already observed at week 4 of treatment. The difference of the 240 mg dose compared to placebo was statistically significant in most of the secondary endpoints. The high remission rate observed at this dose throughout the trial (defined as DAS28-CRP<2.6) – which exceeded 45% – is particularly noteworthy. The 120 mg dose was partially efficacious. Statistically significant differences compared to placebo were observed is some measurements and scales. The overall tolerability of the compound was good and no unexpected adverse effects previously unknown for these drug classes have been observed. In the upcoming weeks, the Company will present results of pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic analyses for this trial, as well as detailed safety parameter analyses. The positive outcomes of this trial validate clinical development of CPL’116 as the world's first dual JAK/ROCK inhibitor in a broad spectrum of autoimmune diseases, in particular conditions with an inflammatory and fibrotic component, such as idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) or rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 26
Now 21% overvalued The stock has been flat over the last 90 days, currently trading at zł15.24. The fair value is estimated to be zł12.55, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.1% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 59%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 27% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 89% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Apr 26
Full year 2023 earnings released: zł0.55 loss per share (vs zł0.77 loss in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: zł0.55 loss per share (improved from zł0.77 loss in FY 2022). Revenue: zł216.6m (up 12% from FY 2022). Net loss: zł28.1m (loss narrowed 28% from FY 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 6.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.8% growth forecast for the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 59% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 31% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 11
Consensus estimates of losses per share improve by 50% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from zł201.1m to zł215.6m. EPS estimate increased from -zł0.26 per share to -zł0.13 per share. Pharmaceuticals industry in Poland expected to see average net income growth of 33% next year. Consensus price target down from zł17.38 to zł16.88. Share price fell 2.0% to zł15.34 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 26
Third quarter 2023 earnings released Third quarter 2023 results: Revenue: zł48.8m (up 8.8% from 3Q 2022). Net loss: zł6.82m (loss narrowed 42% from 3Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 5.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.3% growth forecast for the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 64 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. New Risk • Sep 22
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 13% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Sep 21
Second quarter 2023 earnings released Second quarter 2023 results: Revenue: zł69.0m (up 31% from 2Q 2022). Net income: zł9.14m (up zł17.3m from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 13% (up from net loss in 2Q 2022). The move to profitability was primarily driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.1% growth forecast for the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 85 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 22
Upcoming dividend of zł0.09 per share at 0.6% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 June 2023. Payment date: 06 July 2023. The company is not currently making a profit and is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 0.6%. Lower than top quartile of Polish dividend payers (7.4%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.6%). Reported Earnings • May 01
Full year 2022 earnings released Full year 2022 results: Revenue: zł194.6m (flat on FY 2021). Net loss: zł39.3m (loss widened 238% from FY 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 6.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.2% growth forecast for the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. Reported Earnings • Nov 25
Third quarter 2022 earnings released Third quarter 2022 results: Revenue: zł45.0m (up 13% from 3Q 2021). Net loss: zł11.7m (loss widened 49% from 3Q 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 5.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target decreased to zł27.55 Down from zł30.92, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 103% above last closing price of zł13.56. Stock is down 60% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of zł0.81 next year compared to a net loss per share of zł0.25 last year. Price Target Changed • Oct 24
Price target decreased to zł27.55 Down from zł30.92, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 123% above last closing price of zł12.38. Stock is down 66% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of zł0.81 next year compared to a net loss per share of zł0.25 last year. Price Target Changed • Oct 03
Price target decreased to zł29.32 Down from zł32.32, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 126% above last closing price of zł13.00. Stock is down 63% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of zł0.76 next year compared to a net loss per share of zł0.25 last year. Reported Earnings • Sep 30
Second quarter 2022 earnings released Second quarter 2022 results: Revenue: zł52.8m (down 8.2% from 2Q 2021). Net loss: zł8.11m (down zł10.1m from profit in 2Q 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 5.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.0% growth forecast for the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 109 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 20
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 27% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from zł189.3m to zł181.3m. Losses expected to increase from zł0.60 per share to zł0.76. Pharmaceuticals industry in Poland expected to see average net income growth of 5.4% next year. Consensus price target down from zł32.32 to zł30.92. Share price was steady at zł16.54 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 23
Upcoming dividend of zł0.29 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 June 2022. Payment date: 11 July 2022. The company is not currently making a profit and is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 1.9%. Lower than top quartile of Polish dividend payers (8.3%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.7%). Price Target Changed • Jun 10
Price target decreased to zł32.32 Down from zł36.12, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 97% above last closing price of zł16.40. Stock is down 64% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of zł0.60 next year compared to a net loss per share of zł0.25 last year. Major Estimate Revision • May 31
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 revenue forecast fell from zł209.8m to zł186.2m. EPS estimate increased from -zł0.68 to -zł0.60 per share. Pharmaceuticals industry in Poland expected to see average net income growth of 6.1% next year. Consensus price target down from zł37.92 to zł36.12. Share price fell 8.9% to zł16.34 over the past week. Price Target Changed • May 30
Price target decreased to zł36.12 Down from zł40.72, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 119% above last closing price of zł16.48. Stock is down 65% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of zł0.60 next year compared to a net loss per share of zł0.25 last year. Major Estimate Revision • May 16
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 36% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from zł220.8m to zł209.8m. Losses expected to increase from zł0.50 per share to zł0.68. Pharmaceuticals industry in Poland expected to see average net income growth of 6.3% next year. Consensus price target down from zł40.72 to zł37.92. Share price fell 10.0% to zł19.80 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target decreased to zł40.72 Down from zł48.23, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 77% above last closing price of zł23.00. Stock is down 52% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of zł0.20 compared to earnings per share of zł0.48 last year. Price Target Changed • Dec 10
Price target decreased to zł43.23 Down from zł48.23, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 39% above last closing price of zł31.10. Stock is down 25% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of zł0.015 compared to earnings per share of zł0.48 last year. Reported Earnings • Dec 03
Third quarter 2021 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Third quarter 2021 results: zł0.17 loss per share (down from zł0.04 profit in 3Q 2020). Revenue: zł39.9m (up 4.8% from 3Q 2020). Net loss: zł7.83m (down zł9.64m from profit in 3Q 2020). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 9.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 39%, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the industry in Poland. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 28% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 1% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Price Target Changed • Oct 28
Price target decreased to zł45.23 Down from zł51.57, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 26% above last closing price of zł35.85. Stock is up 4.8% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of zł0.04 compared to earnings per share of zł0.48 last year. Price Target Changed • Oct 12
Price target decreased to zł48.23 Down from zł54.90, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 31% above last closing price of zł36.90. Stock is down 6.2% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Oct 03
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS zł0.01 (vs zł0.25 in 2Q 2020) The company reported a mediocre second quarter result with weaker earnings and profit margins, although revenues improved. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: zł57.7m (up 48% from 2Q 2020). Net income: zł2.02m (down 82% from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 3.5% (down from 29% in 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 24% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 3% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Jul 07
Upcoming dividend of zł0.07 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 14 July 2021. Payment date: 05 August 2021. Trailing yield: 0.2%. Lower than top quartile of Polish dividend payers (5.8%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.8%). Price Target Changed • May 09
Price target increased to zł54.07 Up from zł50.30, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 16% above last closing price of zł46.45. Stock is up 46% over the past year. Annonce • Mar 04
Celon Pharma Terminates Cooperation with Lupin Atlantis Holdings Celon Pharma ended cooperation with Lupin Atlantis Holdings, concerning development, production and commercialization of an inhaled medicine in the US, Australia, Canada, Mexico and South Africa. Celon faces no claims in relation to the termination of the agreement and will have a chance to look for new partners to cooperate with on those markets. Annonce • Feb 11
Celon Pharma Announces Successful Completion of Phase 1A Trial of CPL’116, JAK-ROCK Inhibitor Celon Pharma S.A. announced the successful completion of its Phase 1A trial of its JAK/ROCK kinases dual inhibitor, CPL’116. CPL’116 was administered orally in single ascending doses in healthy volunteers in order to assess safety and pharmacokinetic parameters (PK). No adverse events associated with administration of the investigational drug were observed, and the trial met its primary endpoint. CPL’116 is the first in class dual JAK/ROCK inhibitor in clinical development and is designed to generate anti-inflammatory and anti-fibrotic effects in selected autoimmune diseases. Celon plans to initiate a multiple ascending dose Phase 1b study with safety, pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic evaluations in the next coming weeks and expects readouts from this study to be available at the end of Second Quarter 2021. Price Target Changed • Feb 11
Price target raised to zł50.30 Up from zł43.88, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. The new target price is 8.5% above the current share price of zł46.35. As of last close, the stock is up 3.9% over the past year. Annonce • Feb 02
Celon Pharma S.A. to Report Fiscal Year 2020 Results on Mar 31, 2021 Celon Pharma S.A. announced that they will report fiscal year 2020 results on Mar 31, 2021 Annonce • Jan 09
Celon Pharma Announces Positive Falkieri Phase II Results in Treatment-Resistant Bipolar Depression Celon Pharma announced positive top-line results from a Phase II study of Falkieri (proprietary esketamine dry powder inhalation) in acute phase of treatment-resistant bipolar depression. In the trial, Falkieri met the primary endpoint with statistically significant reductions in MADRS total score compared to placebo at Week 2 in all tested doses, with a dose-response trend. MADRS placebo-subtracted differences were -5.9 (95% CI: -10.2 to -1.5; p=0.009) in the 24 mg dose; -6.7 (95% CI:- 11.1 to -2.2; p=0.004) in the 36 mg dose and -8.2 (95% CI: -12.6 to-3.7; p<0.001) in the 48 mg dose. This was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multi-center study of 88 adult patients with an inadequate response to at least two evidence-based treatment lines in bipolar depression. Patients were allocated to receive adjunctive treatment of either 24 mg, 36 mg, or 48 mg of Falkieri or placebo twice weekly for two weeks. Patients randomized to Falkieri treatment also demonstrated significant improvement in another depressive scale - HDRS at all tested doses, with dose-response effect trend. Positive results were also observed for multiple secondary endpoints with the most impressive remission rates at Week 2 achieving levels of 43-46% on active treatment vs. 9% in the placebo arm. In this Phase 2 study, Falkieri exhibited good safety and tolerability profile. No discontinuations due to adverse events were observed. There were also no serious adverse events (SAEs) occurred in the study. Dissociation was transient, self-limiting and mild in intensity achieving its peak at 45 minutes after drug administration. No sedation was recorded. Importantly, manic switch was not seen in patients administered Falkieri in the study, being first such observation demonstrated in esketamine trials. Mania induction is a well-recognized risk factor of antidepressant therapeutics in bipolar depression. Full data from the Phase 2 trial will be presented at an upcoming medical conference. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 07
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 15% share price gain to zł46.75, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 79.8x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 69.2x. This compares to an average P/E of 22x in the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders over the past three years are 41%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 04
New 90-day high: zł43.45 The company is up 7.0% from its price of zł40.55 on 06 October 2020. The Polish market is up 12% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, it outperformed the Pharmaceuticals industry, which is down 2.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is zł6.17 per share. Reported Earnings • Dec 03
Third quarter 2020 earnings released: EPS zł0.088 The company reported a strong third quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Third quarter 2020 results: Revenue: zł30.5m (up 27% from 3Q 2019). Net income: zł3.97m (up 86% from 3Q 2019). Profit margin: 13% (up from 8.9% in 3Q 2019). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 8% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 12% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 07
Market bids up stock over the past week After last week's 19% share price gain to zł40.00, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 73.4x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 61.6x. This compares to an average P/E of 22x in the Pharmaceuticals industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders over the past three years are 31%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 14
New 90-day low: zł38.25 The company is down 7.0% from its price of zł41.20 on 16 July 2020. The Polish market is down 6.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Pharmaceuticals industry, which is down 4.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is zł4.41 per share. Reported Earnings • Sep 28
First half earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total profits of zł24.5m, up 8.3% from the prior year. Total revenue was zł120.9m over the last 12 months, up 2.5% from the prior year.