MP Materials (MP) Stock Overview
Produces rare earth materials in the Western Hemisphere. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 3/6 |
| Future Growth | 5/6 |
| Past Performance | 0/6 |
| Financial Health | 4/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
No risks detected for MP from our risk checks.
MP Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 425 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Top Community Narratives
MP Materials
3.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Best bet on Rare Earth - Currently priced to perfection, invest if thesis holds at $35-40
View narrativeOO
Published 2 Jan
MP Materials Corp. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$48.99 |
| 52 Week High | US$100.25 |
| 52 Week Low | US$37.81 |
| Beta | 1.95 |
| 1 Month Change | -16.27% |
| 3 Month Change | -19.53% |
| 1 Year Change | -26.67% |
| 3 Year Change | 144.83% |
| 5 Year Change | 55.47% |
| Change since IPO | 389.90% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • Sep 03
MP: Aerospace Deal And Government Support Will Shape Balanced Long Term Outlook
Analysts have trimmed their price target on MP Materials to $58, reflecting updated assumptions for slightly lower projected revenue, profit margins, and future P/E multiples in their models. What’s in the News for MP Materials MP Materials signed a multi year agreement to supply gadolinium oxide to a U.S. aerospace and defense manufacturer, with the contract expected to be worth a nine figure amount.Seeking Alpha • Aug 31
MP Materials: The Fundamentals Play Second Fiddle To The Narratives
Summary MP Materials is rated hold, as the stock trades on geopolitical headlines rather than fundamentals, despite operational improvements. MP's valuation remains elevated at 92x annualized Q2 adjusted EBITDA, largely due to PPA income, which will diminish as NdPr prices approach $110/kg. The upcoming November 10th end of China's export control suspension and MP's Q3 earnings are key catalysts, with market volatility expected. Transition to an internal magnet business and execution of contracts with GM and aerospace clients are critical for bridging future revenue gaps. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Aug 13
MP: Government Partnership And Project Swarm Supply Deals Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have lowered their price target for MP Materials, reducing their fair value estimate from about $80.44 to roughly $75.28 as they incorporate more conservative assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins, future P/E, and a slightly higher discount rate. What’s in the News for MP Materials MP Materials launched Project Swarm, a rare earth magnet program that lets U.S. and allied manufacturers reserve production capacity at its planned US$1.3b 10X magnet facility in Northlake, Texas, developed with the U.S. Department of Defense.Recent updates
Narrative Update • Sep 03
MP: Aerospace Deal And Government Support Will Shape Balanced Long Term Outlook
Analysts have trimmed their price target on MP Materials to $58, reflecting updated assumptions for slightly lower projected revenue, profit margins, and future P/E multiples in their models. What’s in the News for MP Materials MP Materials signed a multi year agreement to supply gadolinium oxide to a U.S. aerospace and defense manufacturer, with the contract expected to be worth a nine figure amount.Seeking Alpha • Aug 31
MP Materials: The Fundamentals Play Second Fiddle To The Narratives
Summary MP Materials is rated hold, as the stock trades on geopolitical headlines rather than fundamentals, despite operational improvements. MP's valuation remains elevated at 92x annualized Q2 adjusted EBITDA, largely due to PPA income, which will diminish as NdPr prices approach $110/kg. The upcoming November 10th end of China's export control suspension and MP's Q3 earnings are key catalysts, with market volatility expected. Transition to an internal magnet business and execution of contracts with GM and aerospace clients are critical for bridging future revenue gaps. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Aug 13
MP: Government Partnership And Project Swarm Supply Deals Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have lowered their price target for MP Materials, reducing their fair value estimate from about $80.44 to roughly $75.28 as they incorporate more conservative assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins, future P/E, and a slightly higher discount rate. What’s in the News for MP Materials MP Materials launched Project Swarm, a rare earth magnet program that lets U.S. and allied manufacturers reserve production capacity at its planned US$1.3b 10X magnet facility in Northlake, Texas, developed with the U.S. Department of Defense.Narrative Update • Jul 30
MP: Government Backing And Texas Magnet Facilities Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have reduced their price target for MP Materials from $69.00 to $60.00, citing updated views on fair value, a slightly higher discount rate, and revised assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E levels. What’s in the News for MP Materials MP Materials reports record first quarter output and sales of neodymium praseodymium, with revenue of US$90.6 million that is described as 49% higher year over year.
Narrative Update • Jul 16
MP: Federal Backing And U.S. Magnet Buildout Will Drive Long-Term Upside
Analysts have adjusted their justified price target for MP Materials to $97.81 from $93.20, citing updated views on long term revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions that reflect the latest research inputs. What's in the News MP Materials is receiving extensive U.S. government support, including a $400 million Department of Defense equity investment and a 10 year pricing floor for neodymium praseodymium oxide, along with multi year commercial contracts and a reported $500 million long term supply deal with Apple.Narrative Update • Jul 02
MP: DoD Partnership And Texas Magnet Campus Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have adjusted their fair value estimate for MP Materials to $69 from $62, citing updated assumptions on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple. What’s in the News for MP Materials MP Materials has filed a lawsuit against USA Rare Earth, alleging improper use of confidential grain boundary diffusion magnet technology obtained through former MP employees, as both companies expand U.S. rare earth operations with government backing.Narrative Update • Jun 18
MP: Government Partnership And Magnet Expansion Will Drive Future Upside Potential
Analysts kept their overall fair value view for MP Materials unchanged at $80.44. The latest price target update reflects slightly adjusted assumptions around discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E rather than a directional shift in the stock's outlook.Narrative Update • Jun 03
MP: Texas Magnet Campus And Government Contracts Will Drive Future Upside Potential
Analysts have made a small adjustment to their MP Materials price target, moving it from $80.86 to $80.44. This change reflects updated views on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions.Narrative Update • May 17
MP: Texas 10X Magnet Campus Will Drive Future Profitability And Upside Potential
Analysts now cite adjustments to fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions to support a revised price target for MP Materials of about $80.86, compared with about $79.29 previously. What's in the News MP Materials selected a 120-acre site in Northlake, Texas, for its "10X" rare earth magnet manufacturing campus, located less than 10 miles from its existing Independence facility in Fort Worth (Key Developments).Narrative Update • May 02
MP: Texas Magnet Campus Will Support Margins While Shares Remain Fairly Valued
Analysts are keeping their $62.00 price target for MP Materials steady, citing largely unchanged fair value estimates along with small refinements to discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions. What's in the News MP Materials selected a 120-acre site in Northlake, Texas, to build its "10X" rare earth magnet manufacturing campus, located less than 10 miles from its existing Independence facility in Fort Worth (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Apr 18
MP: Texas Magnet Campus Will Support Margins While Shares Appear Fairly Priced
Analysts have updated their price target on MP Materials to $62 from $65, reflecting revised assumptions that include a different discount rate, adjusted revenue growth and profit margin expectations, and a lower future P/E outlook. What's in the News MP Materials selected a 120-acre site in Northlake, Texas, for its planned "10X" rare earth magnet manufacturing campus, located less than 10 miles from its existing Independence facility in Fort Worth (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Apr 03
MP: Texas Magnet Campus And Federal Partnership Will Drive Long-Term Upside
Analysts now set their price target for MP Materials at about $93.20, compared with roughly $92.80 before. This reflects updated views on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions.Narrative Update • Mar 20
MP: Texas Magnet Campus And Federal Partnership Will Support Long-Term Upside
Analysts have slightly raised their price target on MP Materials to $92.80 from $92.33, citing updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations. What's in the News MP Materials plans to develop "10X," a large rare earth magnet manufacturing campus on a 120-acre site in Northlake, Texas, positioned less than 10 miles from its existing Independence facility in Fort Worth.Narrative Update • Mar 06
MP: Texas Magnet Campus Will Support Margins And Undervalued Upside
Narrative Update on MP Materials Analysts have trimmed their price target on MP Materials from $69 to $65. This reflects updated assumptions that combine more moderate revenue growth expectations and a slightly higher discount rate with a somewhat stronger projected profit margin and a lower future P/E multiple.Narrative Update • Feb 20
MP: Raised Growth Assumptions And Margins Will Support Bullish Outlook
Analysts maintained their $69.00 price target on MP Materials, citing only minor changes in discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions, rather than any major change in the overall outlook. Valuation Changes Fair Value: $69.00 remains unchanged, indicating no shift in the headline valuation level used in the model.Narrative Update • Feb 06
MP: Saudi Rare Earth Refinery Venture Will Support Long-Term Upside
Analysts have lifted their price target on MP Materials from US$85.00 to about US$92.33, pointing to updated assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E as key drivers behind the change. What's in the News MP Materials agreed with the U.S. Department of War and Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden) to create a joint venture to build a rare earth refinery in Saudi Arabia, focused on separated light and heavy rare earth oxides (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Jan 22
MP: Saudi Refinery Venture And Profit Recovery Will Shape Supply Security
Analysts have reduced their implied fair value estimate for MP Materials from US$71.00 to US$69.00, reflecting slightly adjusted assumptions on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E levels. What's in the News MP Materials agreed to form a joint venture with the U.S. Department of War and Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden) to develop a rare earth refinery in Saudi Arabia, with MP and the DoW targeting a combined 49% equity stake and Maaden holding at least 51% (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Jan 08
MP: Future Rare Earth Refining Expansion Will Reshape Supply Security
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for MP Materials from US$30.00 to US$71.00. This change reflects updated assumptions around growth, profitability and the P/E multiple they are comfortable using.Narrative Update • Dec 25
MP: Saudi Refinery Venture Will Drive Future Profitability And Upside Potential
Analysts nudged their price target on MP Materials slightly higher to imply a fair value of approximately 79.29 dollars per share, as modest tweaks to the discount rate and long term profitability assumptions reinforced confidence in the company’s high growth, premium multiple profile. What's in the News Entered a binding joint venture with the U.S. Department of War and Saudi Arabia’s Maaden to develop a rare earth refinery in the Kingdom, expanding MP’s refining capacity and global footprint while supporting U.S. national security objectives (Key Developments) Confirmed guidance for a return to profitability starting in the fourth quarter of 2025 and beyond, signaling an inflection point in the earnings trajectory (Key Developments) Reported third quarter 2025 production with slightly lower total REO volumes year over year, along with a sharp increase in higher value NdPr output, highlighting improving product mix (Key Developments) Announced a multibillion dollar public private partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense to build a second U.S. magnet manufacturing facility, targeting total domestic magnet capacity of about 10,000 metric tons and added heavy rare earth separation at Mountain Pass (Key Developments) Completed its previously announced share repurchase program, retiring over 15.2 million shares for approximately 225 million dollars, or about 8.7% of shares outstanding (Key Developments) Valuation Changes Fair Value Estimate remains unchanged at approximately 79.29 dollars per share, indicating no material shift in the intrinsic value assessment.Narrative Update • Dec 11
MP: Saudi Refinery Venture Will Drive Future Profitability And Upside Potential
Analysts have nudged their price target on MP Materials slightly higher to approximately 79.29 dollars from about 79.11 dollars, citing modestly stronger long term revenue growth expectations. These expectations more than offset a small downward tweak to projected profit margins and a marginally higher discount rate.Narrative Update • Nov 27
MP: Joint Venture And Buyback Program Will Drive Renewed Profitability
Analysts have slightly reduced their price target for MP Materials from $80.77 to $79.11, citing revised expectations for discount rates, revenue growth, and profit margins in their updated outlook. What's in the News MP Materials has formed a strategic joint venture with the U.S. Department of War and Saudi Arabian Mining Company to build a rare earth refinery in Saudi Arabia, a step aimed at enhancing supply chain security for critical materials.Analysis Article • Nov 06
MP Materials Corp.'s (NYSE:MP) Stock Retreats 26% But Revenues Haven't Escaped The Attention Of Investors
MP Materials Corp. ( NYSE:MP ) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 26...Narrative Update • Nov 06
MP: Partnership And New Facility Are Set To Accelerate Supply Chain Transition
Analysts have modestly raised their price target for MP Materials, increasing it from $80.71 to $80.77. This reflects slightly more optimistic assumptions about the company's long-term valuation and profitability metrics.Narrative Update • Oct 22
Analysts Lift Price Target for MP Materials as New Facility Expands Strategic Role
Analysts have raised their price target for MP Materials from $78.05 to $80.71 per share, citing ongoing optimism. This comes despite slightly lower revenue growth and profit margin forecasts.Narrative Update • Oct 08
Government Contracts And Apple Partnership Will Drive Processing Expansion
Analysts have modestly increased their price target for MP Materials, raising the fair value estimate from $77 to approximately $78.05. Adjustments to the discount rate, profit margin, and revenue expectations reflect a slightly more optimistic outlook for the company’s long-term performance.Narrative Update • Sep 04
Government Contracts And Apple Partnership Will Drive Processing Expansion
The notable increase in MP Materials’ consensus analyst price target from $67.00 to $77.00 appears driven by a substantial rise in the company’s future P/E multiple, despite a modest contraction in net profit margin. What's in the News MP Materials announced a $500 million long-term agreement with Apple to supply rare earth magnets made from 100% recycled materials, significantly expanding its Fort Worth magnetics facility and planning a dedicated recycling line at Mountain Pass; magnet shipments are expected to begin in 2027.Narrative Update • Aug 20
New Equipment And NdPr Trials Will Spur Production Advances
Driven by a significant increase in both Future P/E and Net Profit Margin, analysts have raised MP Materials’ consensus price target from $56.80 to $67.00. What's in the News MP Materials completed a $649.99 million follow-on equity offering of 11,818,181 common shares at $55 each, following the filing for a $500 million equity offering.Narrative Update • Aug 06
New Equipment And NdPr Trials Will Spur Production Advances
The higher analyst price target for MP Materials reflects increased optimism despite a rising future P/E multiple and declining net profit margin, with fair value revised upward to $56.80. What's in the News MP Materials announced a transformative long-term agreement with Apple to supply rare earth magnets made from 100% recycled materials, expanding its Fort Worth, Texas factory and constructing a dedicated recycling line at Mountain Pass, with magnet shipments beginning in 2027.Seeking Alpha • Apr 27
MP Materials: An Unusual Momentum Play
Summary Average trading volume for the past 10 days vs the past 3 months is up by over 140%. MP Materials is America's best chance to regain control over the rare earth elements supply chain, especially after the trade tensions between China and the US have recently escalated. The chart looks compelling, showing a clear turnaround since August 2024. The RSI is in the 50s (very attractive as well). Risks include escalating trade tension with other countries, insider selling activity, and depressed NdPr prices over the past few years. Overall, I believe MP is a decent momentum play this year. I rate it as a buy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Apr 22
New Equipment And NdPr Trials Will Spur Production Advances
Strategic investments in new processes and equipment aim to boost production, efficiency, and margins across multiple segments, enhancing revenue and profitability.Seeking Alpha • Apr 15
Make America Mine Again - MP Materials Is Just Getting Started
Summary MP Materials is poised for long-term growth due to its unique position in the rare earth supply chain and geopolitical advantages. The company's vertically integrated model and strong ties to the U.S. government make it a critical player in economic security and national defense. Despite cyclical headwinds, MP Materials' strong balance sheet and strategic partnerships position it well for future demand and potential growth. I remain highly bullish on MP Materials, expecting a multi-year uptrend driven by geopolitical dynamics and industrial reshoring efforts. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 13
MP Materials: A Rare Opportunity In The Rare Earths Supply Chain
Summary MP Materials Corp. is strategically positioned to benefit from rising rare earth metals demand, driven by industries like EVs, wind turbines, and defense technology. MP Materials aims to control the entire rare earth value chain, from mining to magnet production, reducing U.S. reliance on China. The company reported a net loss in Q4 2024 due to high production costs but expects significant growth and profitability by 2026. With a price target of $31 per share by 2026, MP Materials stock offers a 27% upside, though risks include rare earth pricing and operational challenges. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 28
MP Materials: Ready For A Bright Future
Summary MP is completing its full integration this FY25, from the mining to the magnet production. Financial engineering has been exemplary: cash preservation helped by prepayments from future customers, stock buybacks done at low prices, and debt refinancing completed. Margins should increase significantly over the next two years as NdPr metal production reaches its full target, while magnets should enjoy premium prices. In the meantime, CAPEX spending is likely to fall sharply starting FY26, fueling FCF generation. Seeing more upside potential, I keep my BUY rating. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 08
MP Materials: Look Beyond Sour Short-Term Sentiment
Summary MP Materials is a Strong Buy due to its unique position as a Western rare earth mineral supplier, poised for a rebound in commodity prices. The company is transitioning to a fully integrated US supply chain, reducing reliance on Chinese processing, with a new facility expected by late 2025. MP's financial health is robust, with significant liquidity and manageable debt, positioning it well for future growth and share buybacks. With improving market fundamentals and potential for high profit margins, MP Materials offers substantial upside, targeting a price of $24.3 within 24 months. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 08
MP Materials: Everything Is Going According To The Plan
Summary MP Material is the only fully vertically integrated Rare Earth mining company in the Western Hemisphere. It is finishing its complete transformation from the upstream (mining) and midstream (refining) to the downstream (production of magnets). FY25 should see a margin expansion as production yields are ramping up and magnets start to be sold by year-end. FY26 and onward CAPEX should be minimal, allowing the FCF generation to grow. With solid management, rock solid net cash balance sheet, and improving financials in the coming years, I keep my BUY rating. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| MP | US Metals and Mining | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -9.8% | -5.7% | -1.6% |
| 1Y | -26.7% | 49.8% | 12.1% |
Return vs Industry: MP underperformed the US Metals and Mining industry which returned 49.8% over the past year.
Return vs Market: MP underperformed the US Market which returned 12.1% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| MP volatility | |
|---|---|
| MP Average Weekly Movement | 9.0% |
| Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement | 9.4% |
| Market Average Movement | 6.8% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 15.2% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 2.9% |
Stable Share Price: MP has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: MP's weekly volatility (9%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 998 | James Litinsky | mpmaterials.com |
MP Materials Corp., together with its subsidiaries, produces rare earth materials in the Western Hemisphere. It operates in two segments, Materials and Magnetics. The Materials segment owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing facility located near Mountain Pass, San Bernardino County, California.
MP Materials Corp. Fundamentals Summary
| MP fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$8.76b |
| Earnings (TTM) | -US$60.62m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$416.25m |
21.0x
P/S Ratio-143.9x
P/E RatioIs MP overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| MP income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$416.25m |
| Cost of Revenue | US$240.06m |
| Gross Profit | US$176.18m |
| Other Expenses | US$236.80m |
| Earnings | -US$60.62m |
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | -0.34 |
| Gross Margin | 42.33% |
| Net Profit Margin | -14.56% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 40.6% |
How did MP perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/16 01:30 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/16 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
MP Materials Corp. is covered by 24 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Benjamin Kallo | Baird |
| Richard Garchitorena | Barclays |
| Raj Ray | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |