The GEO Group, Inc.

NYSE:GEO Lagerbericht

Marktkapitalisierung: US$3.0b

GEO Group Zukünftiges Wachstum

Future Kriterienprüfungen 0/6

Der Gewinn von GEO Group wird voraussichtlich um 15.1% pro Jahr zurückgehen, während der Jahresumsatz um 9.8% pro Jahr wachsen soll. Der Gewinn je Aktie wird voraussichtlich um 10.4% pro Jahr sinken.

Wichtige Informationen

-15.1%

Wachstumsrate der Gewinne

-10.35%

EPS-Wachstumsrate

Commercial Services Gewinnwachstum13.4%
Wachstumsrate der Einnahmen9.8%
Zukünftige Eigenkapitalrenditen/a
Analystenabdeckung

Low

Zuletzt aktualisiert07 May 2026

Jüngste Aktualisierungen zum künftigen Wachstum

Analyseartikel • Aug 08

Earnings Beat: The GEO Group, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) just released its second-quarter report and things are looking bullish. It was overall...

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • 3h

GEO Group: Q1 Results Validate The Turnaround, But Policy Risks Remain

Summary The GEO Group Inc. delivered a strong Q1 '26, with 17% revenue growth, 32% EBITDA growth, and raised full-year guidance across all metrics. Despite operational strength and a robust contract backlog, GEO's valuation at $22 now reflects fair value, not a discount, given persistent policy risk. ICE contracts account for 51% of revenue, and unresolved policy risk can trigger rapid stock repricing, as seen with a 13% drop on a single headline. I rate GEO a hold, as the risk/reward at current levels lacks sufficient margin of safety despite management’s solid execution and capital allocation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrativ-Update • May 13

GEO: ICE Detention Spending And Political Scrutiny Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed their GEO Group price targets, with recent cuts such as a move to $28 from $35, mainly citing slower than expected growth following the company’s Q4 results and 2026 guidance. Analyst Commentary Recent research comments have focused on how GEO Group’s updated Q4 results and 2026 guidance feed into both growth expectations and the valuation framework that analysts are using.
Narrativ-Update • Apr 28

GEO: ICE Detention Spending And 2026 Guidance Will Support Future Upside Potential

Analysts have trimmed their price targets on GEO Group, with reductions such as from $35 to $28, reflecting slower than anticipated growth following recent Q4 results and 2026 guidance updates. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are trimming price targets on GEO Group, but are still signaling confidence in the company’s long term execution and growth potential despite the slower than anticipated trajectory implied by Q4 results and 2026 guidance.
Narrativ-Update • Apr 13

GEO: Slower Guidance And Leadership Shifts Set Up Future Detention Upside

Analysts have reduced GEO Group's fair value estimate to $27 from $35, reflecting updated expectations for slower growth and lower profit margins following recent guidance. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have moved to lower GEO Group's valuation anchors, pointing to slower growth expectations and pressure on profit margins after the latest quarter and 2026 guidance.
Narrativ-Update • Mar 30

GEO: ICE Detention Spending And 2026 Guidance Will Reset Earnings Expectations

Analysts have reduced their price expectations for GEO Group, with recent updates lowering targets to $28. This reflects slower than anticipated growth following the company’s Q4 results and 2026 guidance.
Narrativ-Update • Mar 16

GEO: ICE Detention Spending Upside Will Drive 2026 Earnings Repricing

Analysts have reduced the fair value estimate for GEO Group from $35.00 to $33.00, citing slower than anticipated growth, as reflected in recent price target cuts and updated earnings assumptions. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are framing the recent fair value and price target revisions as a recalibration after updated Q4 results and 2026 guidance, rather than a shift away from a constructive long term view on GEO Group.
Narrativ-Update • Mar 02

GEO: ICE Detention Spending And Buybacks Will Support Path Toward $3b Revenue

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for GEO Group to $29.50 from $32.25, citing slower than anticipated growth, as reflected in recent price target cuts and updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has generally aligned with the trimmed fair value estimate, with price targets recalibrated after the company issued Q4 results and 2026 guidance that pointed to slower than previously assumed growth.
Narrativ-Update • Feb 16

GEO: ICE Detention Spending And Leadership Shift Will Shape 2026 Earnings

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for GEO Group by $2 to $35, citing updated assumptions for growth, profitability, and a lower future P/E multiple reflected in recent Street research. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are framing the latest target changes as a recalibration rather than a shift in view on GEO Group’s underlying thesis.
Narrativ-Update • Feb 02

GEO: Upcoming Contracts And Monitoring Programs Will Underpin 2026 Earnings Profile

Analysts have trimmed their price target on GEO Group to US$37 from US$50, citing revised growth estimates and a softer profit outlook, even as they continue to highlight potential revenue from upcoming contracts and monitoring programs. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are framing the lower US$37 price target as a reset rather than a reversal in their view on GEO Group.
Narrativ-Update • Jan 19

GEO: Upcoming Contracts And Monitoring Will Support Path Toward $3B Revenue

Narrative Update Analysts cut their price target on GEO Group by $13 to $37, citing revised estimates that reflect slower than expected growth toward the projected $3b+ in annualized revenue from upcoming contracts and monitoring. They still expressed a positive view on all business segments, including the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program opportunity.
Narrativ-Update • Jan 05

GEO: Upcoming Monitoring Contracts Will Drive Path Toward $3B Annualized Revenue

Analysts have modestly lowered their price target on GEO Group, trimming expectations by approximately $13 per share to reflect slower than expected growth. They are still emphasizing long term revenue potential from upcoming contracts and monitoring programs.
Narrativ-Update • Dec 21

GEO Will Benefit From Upcoming Contracts And Monitoring Expansion By 2026

Analysts have reduced their price target on GEO Group to $37.00 from $50.00, citing slower than previously expected revenue growth and profitability, despite continued optimism about the company’s long term contract and monitoring opportunities. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts emphasize that the revised $37.00 price target still implies meaningful upside from current trading levels, arguing that the market has not fully reflected GEO Group’s multi year contract pipeline and expanding monitoring footprint in its valuation.
Narrativ-Update • Dec 07

GEO: Upcoming Monitoring And Contract Wins Will Drive Revenue Expansion By 2026

Analysts have modestly trimmed their price target on GEO Group, reflecting a recalibration toward slower near term growth. They continue to highlight multi year contract wins and monitoring opportunities that could support the path to more than $3 billion in annualized revenue and underpin an updated fair value estimate of approximately $32.25 per share.
Narrativ-Update • Nov 23

GEO: Upcoming Contracts Will Significantly Boost Annual Revenue By 2026

Analysts have lowered their price target for GEO Group from $34.25 to $32.25. They cite revised estimates that reflect slower-than-expected growth, although there remains continued optimism around new contract opportunities and segment performance.
Analyseartikel • Nov 14

GEO Group's (NYSE:GEO) Solid Profits Have Weak Fundamentals

Last week's profit announcement from The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) was underwhelming for investors, despite headline...
Narrativ-Update • Nov 08

GEO: New Contracts Will Drive Annualized Revenue Past $3 Billion

Analysts have lowered their price target for GEO Group from $39 to $34.25 per share, citing slower-than-expected revenue growth and profit margins based on recent research updates. However, they remain optimistic about the company's long-term opportunities.
Narrativ-Update • Sep 04

Federal Funding Will Expand ICE Facility Activations

Analyst sentiment on GEO Group is mixed, with bulls citing favorable immigration policy momentum and likely funding increases while bears flag slower growth in alternatives to detention, resulting in the consensus price target holding steady at $39.00. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts expect significant demand tailwinds for GEO Group due to major U.S. immigration policy proposals, including anticipated funding increases for detention and monitoring services.
Analyseartikel • Aug 08

Earnings Beat: The GEO Group, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) just released its second-quarter report and things are looking bullish. It was overall...
Analyseartikel • Jul 10

GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to...
Analyseartikel • Jun 22

Investors Will Want GEO Group's (NYSE:GEO) Growth In ROCE To Persist

If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...
Analyseartikel • May 14

Investors Can Find Comfort In GEO Group's (NYSE:GEO) Earnings Quality

The GEO Group, Inc.'s ( NYSE:GEO ) earnings announcement last week didn't impress shareholders. Despite the soft profit...
Analyseartikel • Apr 27

The GEO Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:GEO) Business Is Yet to Catch Up With Its Share Price

The GEO Group, Inc.'s ( NYSE:GEO ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.8x may not look like an appealing investment...
Analyseartikel • Mar 22

GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Is Experiencing Growth In Returns On Capital

What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...
Seeking Alpha • Mar 21

The GEO Group: The Stock Has Re-Priced And No Longer Offers Attractive Risk/Reward

Summary GEO Group's EBITDA declined in 2024, and missed my expectations. Refinancing in April 2024 lowered interest expenses but increased share count by 15%, diluting stock value. The market cap is $3.6 billion with an EV/EBITDA ratio over 11x, making the stock overvalued compared to my initial target. The stock no longer offers favorable risk/reward, as it missed EBITDA expectations and has a higher share count. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analyseartikel • Mar 04

The GEO Group, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

It's been a good week for The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) shareholders, because the company has just released its...
Analyseartikel • Feb 25

These 4 Measures Indicate That GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Is Using Debt Extensively

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...
Seeking Alpha • Feb 10

GEO Group: Shares Have Gotten Ahead Of Growth Potential

Summary GEO Group's stock surged post-Trump election but has eased back down recently. Financial stability is evident with $166 million free cash flow in YTD 2024, despite a slight decline from the previous year. Debt reduction commitment is strong, with plans to cut $150-$175 million annually, enhancing earnings and potential future dividends. Earnings growth through government contracts and debt reduction is likely, but 2025 earnings are estimated at $1.20 per share, suggesting patience for better pricing. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analyseartikel • Jan 18

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) Stock Rockets 34% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 34% gain in the last month alone...
Seeking Alpha • Jan 13

The GEO Group: Further Upside Potential From Trump's Immigration Policy

Summary In Q3 2024, The GEO Group posted flat revenue growth and generated $603 million in revenues. Margins showed varied trends, with operating margin deteriorating to 18.91% but net income margin improving to 4.31%. GEO may be in a position to support a possible increase in demand coming from any changes in immigration policy. Investors should not expect capital returns from share repurchases or dividends, as the company remains focus on deleveraging. Additionally, capacity expansion to meet demand may also affect cash liquidity. Despite GEO stock's recent rally, valuation analysis suggests that there's a potential upside of between 29.94% and 45.74% for investors to capitalize on. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analyseartikel • Dec 31

When Should You Buy The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO)?

While The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) might not have the largest market cap around , it led the NYSE gainers with a...
Analyseartikel • Dec 16

We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At GEO Group (NYSE:GEO)

Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? Amongst other things...
Analyseartikel • Dec 04

Are Investors Undervaluing The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) By 31%?

Key Insights GEO Group's estimated fair value is US$38.92 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity GEO Group's...
Analyseartikel • Oct 29

The GEO Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:GEO) P/E Is Still On The Mark Following 28% Share Price Bounce

The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 28% after a shaky period...
Seeking Alpha • Oct 24

GEO Group: Financial Deterioration Amid Debt Reduction Focus

Summary In 2024, GEO Group's revenue grew by 2%, driven by new contracts, despite a decline in electronic monitoring revenue and deteriorating operating margins. The potential expansion of ICE's detention beds and mandatory GPS monitoring could significantly boost GEO Group's revenue, pending congressional approval. Ultimately, the company's financial performance has been deteriorating and shows no signs of abating. Both operating margin and FCF margin have declined considerably. Valuation analysis suggests that GEO is fairly priced. There is a huge upside potential exists if the company is able to improve its growth and optimize its margins. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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Neues Narrativ • Sep 12

Calculated Contracts And Legislative Developments Fuel Growth In Managed Services And Tech Solutions

New contracts with ICE and in Australia are poised to drive revenue growth in the managed-only segment from increased contract activations.
Analyseartikel • Sep 05

We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At GEO Group (NYSE:GEO)

What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Firstly...

Gewinn- und Umsatzwachstumsprognosen

NYSE:GEO - Zukünftige Analystenschätzungen und Finanzdaten der Vergangenheit (USD Millions)
DatumUmsatzGewinneFreier CashflowBargeld aus operativen TätigkeitenDurchschn. Anz. Analysten
12/31/20273,2422162253653
12/31/20262,9841623434984
3/31/20262,732273-31158N/A
12/31/20252,632254-12573N/A
9/30/20252,53223726208N/A
6/30/20252,45288131238N/A
3/31/20252,42327135230N/A
12/31/20242,42430164242N/A
9/30/20242,42436194271N/A
6/30/20242,42430202283N/A
3/31/20242,41189192266N/A
12/31/20232,41389205278N/A
9/30/20232,426103228299N/A
6/30/20232,439114148234N/A
3/31/20232,434134179269N/A
12/31/20222,377142198288N/A
9/30/20222,31465136221N/A
6/30/20222,25462188249N/A
3/31/20222,23153224280N/A
12/31/20212,25770213283N/A
9/30/20212,277126291373N/A
6/30/20212,299136291391N/A
3/31/20212,321137333438N/A
12/31/20202,350113333442N/A
9/30/20202,394139263373N/A
6/30/20202,446146263378N/A
3/31/20202,472151248367N/A
12/31/20192,478167N/A338N/A
9/30/20192,456162N/A377N/A
6/30/20192,408155N/A311N/A
3/31/20192,377151N/A304N/A
12/31/20182,331145N/A274N/A
9/30/20182,301148N/A543N/A
6/30/20182,284147N/A511N/A
3/31/20182,278141N/A403N/A
12/31/20172,263146N/A381N/A
9/30/20172,261159N/A42N/A
6/30/20172,249165N/A-16N/A
3/31/20172,220157N/A37N/A
12/31/20162,179149N/A-28N/A
9/30/20162,113143N/A19N/A
6/30/20162,029138N/A101N/A
3/31/20161,926143N/A64N/A
12/31/20151,843139N/A142N/A
9/30/20151,771133N/A149N/A
6/30/20151,759134N/A150N/A

Analystenprognosen zum zukünftigen Wachstum

Einkommen vs. Sparrate: GEOFür die nächsten 3 Jahre wird ein Rückgang der Gewinne prognostiziert (-15.1% pro Jahr).

Ertrag vs. Markt: GEOFür die nächsten 3 Jahre wird ein Rückgang der Gewinne prognostiziert (-15.1% pro Jahr).

Hohe Wachstumserträge: GEOFür die nächsten 3 Jahre wird mit einem Rückgang der Erträge gerechnet.

Einnahmen vs. Markt: GEODie Einnahmen des Unternehmens (9.8% pro Jahr) werden voraussichtlich langsamer wachsen als der Markt US (11.6% pro Jahr).

Hohe Wachstumseinnahmen: GEODie Einnahmen des Unternehmens (9.8% pro Jahr) werden voraussichtlich langsamer wachsen als 20% pro Jahr.

Wachstumsprognosen für den Gewinn je Aktie

Künftige Eigenkapitalrendite

Künftige Eigenkapitalrendite: Unzureichende Daten, um festzustellen, ob die Eigenkapitalrendite von GEO in 3 Jahren voraussichtlich hoch sein wird

Wachstumsunternehmen entdecken

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Unternehmensanalyse und Finanzdaten Status

DatenZuletzt aktualisiert (UTC-Zeit)
Unternehmensanalyse2026/05/20 13:28
Aktienkurs zum Tagesende2026/05/20 00:00
Gewinne2026/03/31
Jährliche Einnahmen2025/12/31

Datenquellen

Die in unserer Unternehmensanalyse verwendeten Daten stammen von S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. Die folgenden Daten werden in unserem Analysemodell verwendet, um diesen Bericht zu erstellen. Die Daten sind normalisiert, was zu einer Verzögerung bei der Verfügbarkeit der Quelle führen kann.

PaketDatenZeitrahmenBeispiel US-Quelle *
Finanzdaten des Unternehmens10 Jahre
  • Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung
  • Kapitalflussrechnung
  • Bilanz
Konsensschätzungen der Analysten+3 Jahre
  • Finanzielle Vorausschau
  • Kursziele der Analysten
Marktpreise30 Jahre
  • Aktienkurse
  • Dividenden, Splits und Aktionen
Eigentümerschaft10 Jahre
  • Top-Aktionäre
  • Insiderhandel
Verwaltung10 Jahre
  • Das Führungsteam
  • Direktorium
Wichtige Entwicklungen10 Jahre
  • Ankündigungen des Unternehmens

* Beispiel für US-Wertpapiere, für nicht-US-amerikanische Wertpapiere werden gleichwertige regulatorische Formulare und Quellen verwendet.

Sofern nicht anders angegeben, beziehen sich alle Finanzdaten auf einen Jahreszeitraum, werden aber vierteljährlich aktualisiert. Dies wird als Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) oder Last Twelve Month (LTM) Daten bezeichnet. Erfahren Sie mehr.

Analysemodell und Schneeflocke

Einzelheiten zu dem Analysemodell, mit dem dieser Bericht erstellt wurde, finden Sie auf unserer Github-Seite. Außerdem bieten wir Leitfäden zur Verwendung unserer Berichte und Tutorials auf YouTube an.

Erfahren Sie mehr über das Weltklasse-Team, das das Simply Wall St-Analysemodell entworfen und entwickelt hat.

Metriken für Industrie und Sektor

Unsere Branchen- und Sektionskennzahlen werden alle 6 Stunden von Simply Wall St berechnet. Details zu unserem Verfahren finden Sie auf Github.

Analysten-Quellen

The GEO Group, Inc. wird von 14 Analysten beobachtet. 4 dieser Analysten hat die Umsatz- oder Gewinnschätzungen übermittelt, die als Grundlage für unseren Bericht dienen. Die von den Analysten übermittelten Daten werden im Laufe des Tages aktualisiert.

AnalystEinrichtung
Manav PatnaikBarclays
Ryan MelikerCanaccord Genuity
Tan WeiDeutsche Bank