Harley-Davidson Zukünftiges Wachstum
Future Kriterienprüfungen 1/6
Der Umsatz von Harley-Davidson wird voraussichtlich um 2.1% pro Jahr zurückgehen, während der Jahresgewinn um 10.1% pro Jahr wachsen soll. Der Gewinn je Aktie wird voraussichtlich um 15.4% pro Jahr steigen. Die Eigenkapitalrendite wird in 3 Jahren voraussichtlich 7.7% betragen.
Wichtige Informationen
10.1%
Wachstumsrate der Gewinne
15.39%
EPS-Wachstumsrate
| Auto Gewinnwachstum | 36.4% |
| Wachstumsrate der Einnahmen | -2.1% |
| Zukünftige Eigenkapitalrendite | 7.71% |
| Analystenabdeckung | Good |
| Zuletzt aktualisiert | 10 Jul 2026 |
Jüngste Aktualisierungen zum künftigen Wachstum
Recent updates
Narrativ-Update • Jul 07
HOG: Back To The Bricks Execution Risks Will Likely Cap Future Upside
The analyst price target for Harley-Davidson has been raised to $30 per share from $25, as analysts point to the updated Back to the Bricks plan, a sharper dealer-focused model, and more disciplined new bike introductions that they expect to support additional customization and upsell opportunities. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst moves around Harley-Davidson highlight a mixed backdrop, with some raising price targets while others stay cautious on execution and growth expectations tied to the Back to the Bricks plan.
Narrativ-Update • Jun 23
HOG: Turnaround Execution And Reshoring Plans Will Test Dealer And Demand Improvements
The analyst price target for Harley-Davidson has been nudged higher to approximately $25.64 from about $25.45, as analysts factor in recent estimate revisions tied to a Q1 beat, improved competitive positioning, and easing tariff pressures, while still viewing some longer term targets as ambitious. Analyst Commentary Recent research commentary on Harley-Davidson points to a more constructive stance on near term execution, while still flagging meaningful questions around how achievable some of the longer range targets are.Seeking Alpha • Jun 20
Harley-Davidson: The Margin Reset Could Rip The Bear Case Apart
Summary HOG is priced like the margin collapse is permanent, yet Q1 retail sales rose 8% and dealer inventory fell 22%, signaling demand may have stopped bleeding. The 2027 reset is the first catalyst: less discounting, $150M+ cost cuts, U.S.-built Revolution Max, and fuller York production can lift HDMC EBITDA to over $350M. My base case is $32 in 12-18 months and $48 in 2-3 years, with greater upside if Harley turns dealers into rider factories and rebuilds cultural demand. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrativ-Update • Jun 05
HOG: Turnaround Plan And Buybacks Will Confront Ongoing Demand And Dealer Risks
Analysts have raised the implied fair value for Harley-Davidson stock from about $22.14 to $25.45, citing higher Street price targets around $15, along with updated assumptions for slower revenue declines, improved profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research paints a mixed picture for Harley-Davidson, with several firms lifting price targets while still urging caution on the stock.Narrativ-Update • Apr 28
HOG: Brand Refresh And Buybacks Will Confront Ongoing Demand And Dealer Concerns
The analyst price target for Harley-Davidson has been trimmed by less than $0.05, as analysts reflect weaker revenue growth assumptions alongside slightly firmer profit margin and lower future P/E expectations, following a series of reduced Street targets and new Underweight ratings that highlight demand concerns and business uncertainty. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Harley-Davidson clusters around concern for demand, dealer health and the longer term direction of the business, with several firms trimming price targets and leaning cautious on the shares.Narrativ-Update • Apr 13
HOG: Product Refresh And Buybacks Will Counter Ongoing Demand And Dealer Concerns
Harley-Davidson’s analyst price target has been modestly adjusted to $22.18, as analysts factor in slightly less severe revenue contraction and profit margin pressure, along with a higher assumed future P/E and a wave of recent target cuts and Underweight ratings that highlight concerns around demand, dealer health, and overall business direction. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has leaned cautious, with several firms trimming price targets and initiating with Underweight or Neutral ratings.Narrativ-Update • Mar 28
HOG: Product Refresh And Buybacks Will Offset Ongoing Demand And Dealer Pressures
Harley-Davidson's analyst price targets have been reset lower, with reductions from firms including UBS, Morgan Stanley, Baird, DA Davidson, and Citi. Wells Fargo also initiated coverage with an Underweight rating and a $15 target, as analysts highlight ongoing demand softness, dealer pressures, and uncertainty around the direction of the business.Narrativ-Update • Mar 12
HOG: Product Refresh And Buybacks Will Support Future Brand And Margin Resilience
We are trimming our Harley-Davidson fair value estimate to $22.00 from $23.50, reflecting a series of lower Street price targets and analyst concerns about weak demand, dealer health, profit pressure, and higher implied future P/E expectations. Analyst Commentary Street research has tilted cautious on Harley-Davidson, with several firms reducing price targets and flagging execution and demand risks.Narrativ-Update • Feb 25
HOG: Product Refresh And Share Repurchases Will Support Future Margin Stability
The updated analyst price target for Harley-Davidson has been revised to $23.50 from $26.50. This change reflects recent cuts across the Street as analysts factor in a choppy consumer backdrop, softer profit expectations, and adjusted powersports estimates following Q4 results and industry events.Narrativ-Update • Feb 10
HOG: Inventory Actions And Lower Price Models Will Support Future Margin Stability
Narrative Update: Harley-Davidson Analysts have reduced their price targets on Harley-Davidson by up to $5, citing weaker retail conditions, margin pressure from clearing inventory, and an expected shift toward lower price point models. This is reflected in lower EPS estimates for coming periods.Analyseartikel • Feb 09
Is Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) A Risky Investment?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Narrativ-Update • Jan 26
HOG: Inventory Cleanup And Dealer Health Efforts Will Support Future Margin Stability
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Harley-Davidson to $26.50 from $27.50, citing lower price targets and updated earnings expectations that reflect a softer retail backdrop, margin pressure from inventory clearance, and some product mix headwinds, even as recent commentary highlights efforts to improve dealer health and rebuild trust across the network. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Harley-Davidson point to a mixed setup, with price targets moving lower but with some constructive views on execution efforts and dealer health.Narrativ-Update • Jan 09
HOG: New Leadership Actions Will Drive Inventory Cleanup And Margin Stability
Analysts have trimmed Harley-Davidson's blended price target to a range of about US$21 to US$30, citing concerns about weaker retail demand, inventory-related margin pressure and product mix. These factors are partly offset by confidence in new CEO led inventory actions and efforts to improve dealer health.Narrativ-Update • Dec 18
HOG: New Leadership Will Drive Inventory Clearance And Future Margin Recovery
The analyst price target for Harley-Davidson has edged down by $0.10 as analysts factor in weaker retail demand, ongoing inventory clearance related margin pressure, and mixed views on the pace of recovery despite recent management actions to improve dealer health. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a divided view on Harley-Davidson's outlook, with some emphasizing operational progress and others highlighting structural headwinds that could weigh on valuation and earnings power.Analyseartikel • Dec 06
Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.18
Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( NYSE:HOG ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.18 per share on the 22nd of...Narrativ-Update • Dec 04
HOG: New Leadership Will Drive Inventory Reset And Future Margin Stability
Harley-Davidson's analyst price target has been trimmed modestly, with fair value estimates easing by about $0.70 per share as analysts factor in weaker retail trends, margin pressure tied to inventory clearance, and a slightly lower future earnings multiple, despite ongoing efforts to improve dealer health and rebuild network trust. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a widening divide between cautious and constructive views on Harley-Davidson, with valuation resets incorporating both near term execution risk and potential upside from operational changes under new leadership.Narrativ-Update • Nov 20
HOG: New Leadership Will Drive Dealer Health And Inventory Improvement
Harley-Davidson's analyst price target has been revised downward by $1 to $28. Analysts cite ongoing inventory challenges, cautious retail trends, and mixed outlooks on recent management changes as key factors influencing the adjustment.Analyseartikel • Aug 29
A Piece Of The Puzzle Missing From Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOG) 26% Share Price Climb
Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( NYSE:HOG ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month...Analyseartikel • Jul 18
Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Analyseartikel • Jun 16
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) Might Not Be As Mispriced As It Looks
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8.3x Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( NYSE:HOG ) may be sending very bullish...Analyseartikel • May 20
Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) May Have Issues Allocating Its Capital
If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...Analyseartikel • Apr 22
Why Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) Could Be Worth Watching
While Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( NYSE:HOG ) might not have the largest market cap around , it saw significant share price...Analyseartikel • Mar 18
There's No Escaping Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOG) Muted Earnings
Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s ( NYSE:HOG ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 7x might make it look like a strong buy...Seeking Alpha • Mar 04
Harley-Davidson: Secular Decline And Market Share Deterioration Weaken Outlook
Summary Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s sales have declined over the long term. On top of a secular decline in the US, the brand's market share has deteriorated in both the US and Europe. The company's LiveWire brand isn't gaining customers, generating significant losses and showing little promise for a turnaround. Dealers' overstocked inventories are exacerbating Harley-Davidson's weak short-term financial performance. Despite a P/E below 8, I don't believe HOG stock to be attractive. The company ultimately needs to stabilize its sales, which seems unlikely for now. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaGewinn- und Umsatzwachstumsprognosen
| Datum | Umsatz | Gewinne | Freier Cashflow | Bargeld aus operativen Tätigkeiten | Durchschn. Anz. Analysten |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 3,870 | 221 | N/A | N/A | 3 |
| 12/31/2027 | 3,954 | 193 | 178 | 383 | 12 |
| 12/31/2026 | 3,793 | 36 | 323 | 212 | 12 |
| 3/31/2026 | 4,316 | 230 | 44 | 199 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 4,473 | 339 | 415 | 569 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 4,665 | 501 | 392 | 550 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 4,475 | 243 | 821 | 996 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 4,786 | 354 | 921 | 1,101 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 5,187 | 455 | 867 | 1,064 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 5,552 | 598 | 770 | 979 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 5,951 | 678 | 713 | 922 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 5,777 | 637 | 604 | 812 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 5,836 | 707 | 547 | 755 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 5,926 | 723 | 475 | 681 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 6,025 | 785 | 532 | 715 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 6,049 | 823 | 287 | 456 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 5,755 | 741 | 397 | 548 | N/A |
| 9/25/2022 | 5,629 | 721 | 481 | 625 | N/A |
| 6/26/2022 | 5,346 | 623 | 438 | 576 | N/A |
| 3/27/2022 | 5,409 | 613 | 823 | 952 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 5,336 | 650 | 856 | 976 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 5,045 | 532 | 868 | 968 | N/A |
| 6/27/2021 | 4,845 | 489 | 1,110 | 1,212 | N/A |
| 3/28/2021 | 4,179 | 191 | 1,232 | 1,349 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 4,054 | 1 | 1,047 | 1,178 | N/A |
| 9/27/2020 | 4,401 | 111 | 1,002 | 1,155 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 4,508 | 78 | 817 | 982 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 5,276 | 365 | 648 | 827 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 5,362 | 424 | N/A | 868 | N/A |
| 9/29/2019 | 5,435 | 411 | N/A | 932 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 5,479 | 438 | N/A | 966 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 5,559 | 485 | N/A | 1,047 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 5,717 | 531 | N/A | 1,206 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 5,800 | 539 | N/A | 1,179 | N/A |
| 7/1/2018 | 5,635 | 494 | N/A | 1,114 | N/A |
| 4/1/2018 | 5,687 | 510 | N/A | 1,037 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 5,647 | 522 | N/A | 1,005 | N/A |
| 9/24/2017 | 5,529 | 561 | N/A | 1,196 | N/A |
| 6/25/2017 | 5,653 | 606 | N/A | 1,345 | N/A |
| 3/26/2017 | 5,748 | 628 | N/A | 1,293 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 5,996 | 692 | N/A | 1,174 | N/A |
| 9/25/2016 | 6,066 | 687 | N/A | 1,007 | N/A |
| 6/26/2016 | 6,109 | 713 | N/A | 942 | N/A |
| 3/27/2016 | 6,072 | 733 | N/A | 967 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 5,995 | 752 | N/A | 1,100 | N/A |
| 9/27/2015 | 6,015 | 784 | N/A | 1,201 | N/A |
Analystenprognosen zum zukünftigen Wachstum
Einkommen vs. Sparrate: HOGDas prognostizierte Gewinnwachstum (10.1% pro Jahr) liegt über der Sparquote (3.5%).
Ertrag vs. Markt: HOGDie Erträge des Unternehmens (10.1% pro Jahr) werden voraussichtlich langsamer wachsen als der Markt US (18.2% pro Jahr).
Hohe Wachstumserträge: HOGDie Erträge des Unternehmens werden voraussichtlich steigen, jedoch nicht deutlich.
Einnahmen vs. Markt: HOGDie Einnahmen des Unternehmens werden in den nächsten 3 Jahren voraussichtlich zurückgehen (-2.1% pro Jahr).
Hohe Wachstumseinnahmen: HOGDie Einnahmen des Unternehmens werden in den nächsten drei Jahren voraussichtlich zurückgehen (-2.1% pro Jahr).
Wachstumsprognosen für den Gewinn je Aktie
Künftige Eigenkapitalrendite
Künftige Eigenkapitalrendite: HOGDie Eigenkapitalrendite des Unternehmens wird in 3 Jahren voraussichtlich niedrig sein (7.7%).
Wachstumsunternehmen entdecken
Unternehmensanalyse und Finanzdaten Status
| Daten | Zuletzt aktualisiert (UTC-Zeit) |
|---|---|
| Unternehmensanalyse | 2026/07/12 10:14 |
| Aktienkurs zum Tagesende | 2026/07/10 00:00 |
| Gewinne | 2026/03/31 |
| Jährliche Einnahmen | 2025/12/31 |
Datenquellen
Die in unserer Unternehmensanalyse verwendeten Daten stammen von S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. Die folgenden Daten werden in unserem Analysemodell verwendet, um diesen Bericht zu erstellen. Die Daten sind normalisiert, was zu einer Verzögerung bei der Verfügbarkeit der Quelle führen kann.
| Paket | Daten | Zeitrahmen | Beispiel US-Quelle * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finanzdaten des Unternehmens | 10 Jahre |
| |
| Konsensschätzungen der Analysten | +3 Jahre |
|
|
| Marktpreise | 30 Jahre |
| |
| Eigentümerschaft | 10 Jahre |
| |
| Verwaltung | 10 Jahre |
| |
| Wichtige Entwicklungen | 10 Jahre |
|
* Beispiel für US-Wertpapiere, für nicht-US-amerikanische Wertpapiere werden gleichwertige regulatorische Formulare und Quellen verwendet.
Sofern nicht anders angegeben, beziehen sich alle Finanzdaten auf einen Jahreszeitraum, werden aber vierteljährlich aktualisiert. Dies wird als Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) oder Last Twelve Month (LTM) Daten bezeichnet. Erfahren Sie mehr.
Analysemodell und Schneeflocke
Details des Analysemodells, das zur Erstellung dieses Berichts verwendet wurde, sind auf unserer GitHub-Seite verfügbar. Außerdem haben wir Leitfäden zur Nutzung unserer Berichte und Tutorials auf YouTube.
Erfahren Sie mehr über das Weltklasse-Team, das das Simply Wall St-Analysemodell entworfen und entwickelt hat.
Metriken für Industrie und Sektor
Unsere Branchen- und Sektionskennzahlen werden alle 6 Stunden von Simply Wall St berechnet. Details zu unserem Verfahren finden Sie auf Github.
Analysten-Quellen
Harley-Davidson, Inc. wird von 28 Analysten beobachtet. 12 dieser Analysten hat die Umsatz- oder Gewinnschätzungen übermittelt, die als Grundlage für unseren Bericht dienen. Die von den Analysten übermittelten Daten werden im Laufe des Tages aktualisiert.
| Analyst | Einrichtung |
|---|---|
| David Coleman | Argus Research Company |
| Craig Kennison | Baird |
| Felicia Kantor Hendrix | Barclays |