Update shared on 20 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 3.41%Harley-Davidson's analyst price target has been revised downward by $1 to $28. Analysts cite ongoing inventory challenges, cautious retail trends, and mixed outlooks on recent management changes as key factors influencing the adjustment.
Analyst Commentary
Analysts covering Harley-Davidson present a divided outlook, reflecting a mixture of optimism regarding management initiatives and ongoing concerns about industry and company-specific headwinds. The following are key bullish and bearish takeaways based on recent research updates:
Bullish Takeaways
- New leadership initiatives, specifically inventory reduction actions, are seen as fostering improved dealer health and rebuilding trust across the network.
- Sequential improvement in U.S. retail demand, paired with agile inventory management, is viewed as a positive momentum indicator for future quarters.
- The recent HDFS transaction is considered transformational. It provides substantial balance sheet flexibility and new strategic optionality through unlocking over $1B in cash.
- Upcoming product launches, including a new $6,000 bike, are considered underappreciated catalysts that could drive incremental growth opportunities.
Bearish Takeaways
- Persistent weakness in retail trends and continued margin pressure from efforts to clear out inventory are cited as significant challenges.
- Reduced pricing power and weak secular trends in the motorcycle industry are contributing to a diminished growth outlook.
- Competitive pressures are seen as overwhelming cyclical recovery attempts. This has led to lower earnings estimates and price targets.
- EPS projections for key upcoming periods have been marked down substantially, reflecting a more cautious stance on the company’s near-term execution and growth trajectory.
What's in the News
- Harley-Davidson has completed the repurchase of 10,017,999 shares, representing 8.05% of total shares, for $293.9 million under its buyback program announced in July 2024 (Key Developments).
- The company unveiled select models from its 2026 motorcycle lineup. This includes new Solo Trim Packages and updated Grand American Touring, Cruiser, Sport, and Adventure Touring models. More launches are scheduled for January 2026 (Key Developments).
- Harley-Davidson and Realtree collaborated on a limited-edition apparel line called "Get Lost," designed for both outdoor and everyday use. The collection is available at dealerships across the U.S. (Key Developments).
- On September 23, 2025, the Board of Directors adopted amendments to the company's amended and restated by-laws, which took effect the same day (Key Developments).
- CEO Jochen Zeitz is set to retire on September 30, 2025. Artie Starrs, former Topgolf International CEO, has been announced as his successor (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has decreased by $1, moving from $29.33 to $28.33 per share.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly from 12.32% to 12.5%, reflecting a marginally higher cost of capital.
- Revenue Growth projections have fallen further into negative territory, declining from -4.37% to -6.09%.
- Net Profit Margin has improved modestly, increasing from 9.98% to 10.21%.
- Future P/E ratio has decreased from 11.18x to 10.23x, suggesting a lower valuation multiple assigned to expected future earnings.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.