Astrana Health (ASTH) Stock Overview
A healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 2/6 |
| Future Growth | 3/6 |
| Past Performance | 0/6 |
| Financial Health | 1/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
ASTH Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 12 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Astrana Health, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$38.29 |
| 52 Week High | US$39.93 |
| 52 Week Low | US$18.08 |
| Beta | 0.94 |
| 1 Month Change | -2.57% |
| 3 Month Change | 58.29% |
| 1 Year Change | 44.33% |
| 3 Year Change | 14.47% |
| 5 Year Change | -24.54% |
| Change since IPO | 253.23% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • Jun 05
ASTH: Prospect Integration And Full Risk Expansion Will Support Future Upside
Astrana Health's analyst price target has moved to $50, with analysts pointing to a better outlook for value-based care, progress on integrating Prospect, and growing confidence in full-risk membership growth as key supports for the updated view. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Astrana Health has tilted constructive, with several bullish analysts lifting price targets and, in at least one case, upgrading the stock alongside a higher valuation framework.Narrative Update • May 20
ASTH: Prospect Integration Progress And Buybacks Will Support Future Upside Potential
Astrana Health's updated analyst price target shifts from $54 to $50, as analysts factor in Q1 earnings strength, Prospect integration progress, and revised assumptions for the discount rate, growth, margin, and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent research has leaned positive on Astrana Health, with bullish analysts lifting price targets and citing Q1 results and progress on the Prospect integration as key supports for their updated views.
Narrative Update • May 04
ASTH: Rising Price Hopes Will Confront Execution Risk In Value Based Care
Astrana Health's updated analyst price target has moved higher and is now centered around $38 to $40, as analysts point to the company's expanding role as a value-based care platform, reflected in recent 10-K disclosures. Analyst Commentary Recent research commentary around Astrana Health has centered on its positioning as a value-based care platform, with price targets in the high $30s to $40 range.Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 05
ASTH: Prospect Integration And Full Risk Expansion Will Support Future Upside
Astrana Health's analyst price target has moved to $50, with analysts pointing to a better outlook for value-based care, progress on integrating Prospect, and growing confidence in full-risk membership growth as key supports for the updated view. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Astrana Health has tilted constructive, with several bullish analysts lifting price targets and, in at least one case, upgrading the stock alongside a higher valuation framework.Narrative Update • May 20
ASTH: Prospect Integration Progress And Buybacks Will Support Future Upside Potential
Astrana Health's updated analyst price target shifts from $54 to $50, as analysts factor in Q1 earnings strength, Prospect integration progress, and revised assumptions for the discount rate, growth, margin, and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent research has leaned positive on Astrana Health, with bullish analysts lifting price targets and citing Q1 results and progress on the Prospect integration as key supports for their updated views.Narrative Update • May 04
ASTH: Rising Price Hopes Will Confront Execution Risk In Value Based Care
Astrana Health's updated analyst price target has moved higher and is now centered around $38 to $40, as analysts point to the company's expanding role as a value-based care platform, reflected in recent 10-K disclosures. Analyst Commentary Recent research commentary around Astrana Health has centered on its positioning as a value-based care platform, with price targets in the high $30s to $40 range.Narrative Update • Apr 20
ASTH: 2026 Platform Expansion Will Test Overextended Expectations And Execution Risk
Astrana Health's updated analyst price target has moved modestly higher to $40. Analysts view the company as becoming a larger, more relevant value-based care platform, even as one firm trimmed its target by $5.Seeking Alpha • Apr 08
Astrana Health: A Delegated Risk Model At A Discount
Summary Astrana Health, Inc. offers a mispriced growth opportunity, combining 20–30% top and bottom line growth with strong free cash flow and operational leverage. ASTH's risk-bearing, tech-enabled model drives industry-leading G&A efficiency (6.8%), diversified revenue streams, and resilience against reimbursement or membership volatility. Despite 56% revenue growth and robust EBITDA expansion, ASTH trades at deep valuation discounts (EV/Revenue 0.43x, EV/EBITDA 6.43x), reflecting over-discounted risk. With management guiding for 24% revenue and 29% EBITDA growth, multiple expansion could drive compelling risk/reward if ASTH executes and maintains margins. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Apr 05
ASTH: 2026 Platform Expansion And Buybacks Will Test Fair Value Assumptions
Astrana Health's updated analyst price target of $38, up $1, reflects analysts' view that the company is building a larger value based care platform, while they reassess assumptions around growth, margins, discount rate, and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Astrana Health centers on how quickly the company can scale its value based care platform while managing execution and valuation risks.
Narrative Update • Mar 22
ASTH: Future Full-Risk Platform Execution Will Highlight Underappreciated Value-Based Care Upside
Astrana Health's analyst fair value estimate has edged up from $35.67 to $36.00 as analysts factor in updated assumptions around discount rates, profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple, informed by recent Street research, including adjusted price targets and views on its role as a growing value-based care platform. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Astrana Health focuses on how its role as a value-based care platform could influence both upside potential and execution risk.Narrative Update • Mar 08
ASTH: 2026 Execution And Buybacks Will Balance Lower P E Expectations
Astrana Health's analyst price target moved from $27.30 to $9.73 as analysts reset their outlook using updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E following recent Street research that included a $5 cut from BTIG. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have reset their expectations for Astrana Health, pointing to updated assumptions for revenue growth, profitability and the P/E multiple as key reasons for pulling back their targets.Narrative Update • Feb 22
ASTH: Future Full-Risk Execution Will Highlight Underappreciated 2026 Medicare Advantage Upside
Analysts have trimmed Astrana Health's implied fair value from about $40.25 to roughly $35.67. This reflects lower published price targets and a modestly higher discount rate as they wait for clearer proof points on 2026 Medicare Advantage and full risk contract trends.Narrative Update • Feb 08
ASTH: Full-Risk Contract Execution In 2026 Will Drive Bullish Outlook
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Astrana Health by about $5, citing a higher discount rate, cautious assumptions around full risk contract timing, and the need for clearer 1H26 Medicare Advantage proof points before assigning a higher valuation multiple. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts are taking a more cautious stance on Astrana Health, trimming price targets and flagging execution risks around the company’s shift into full risk contracts and Medicare Advantage exposure.Narrative Update • Jan 25
ASTH: Full-Risk Conversion Timing And 2026 Medicare Advantage Proof Points Will Shape Outlook
Narrative Update on Astrana Health Astrana Health's Street target has moved lower to US$37 from US$44, as analysts factor in a modestly higher discount rate, slightly adjusted revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a somewhat lower future P/E. Analysts also emphasize that clearer proof points on 2026 Medicare Advantage trends are needed before confidence improves.Narrative Update • Jan 10
ASTH: Full-Risk Conversion Delays And Medicare Advantage Potential Will Shape 2026 Outlook
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Astrana Health to $37 from $44, citing a lower fair-value P/E assumption and the need for clearer evidence on full-risk contract conversion and Medicare Advantage upside before confidence improves. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts are signaling a more cautious stance on Astrana Health by trimming price targets and questioning how quickly the business can convert to full-risk contracts and capture Medicare Advantage benefits.Narrative Update • Dec 17
ASTH: Medicare Advantage Upside And Full-Risk Conversions Will Drive Future Rebound
Astrana Health’s analyst price target has been cut from approximately $36.00 to about $26.00 per share, as analysts temper revenue growth and margin expectations while they await clearer proof points on 2026 Medicare Advantage upside and full-risk contract conversions. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have highlighted that the recent price target reset reflects growing skepticism around Astrana Health’s ability to execute on its full-risk contract strategy and to capture the anticipated Medicare Advantage upside by early 2026.Narrative Update • Dec 03
ASTH: Future Full-Risk Conversions Will Unlock Underappreciated Medicare Advantage Upside
Astrana Health's analyst price target has been revised modestly lower, with fair value decreasing from approximately $42.38 to $40.25. Analysts are factoring in a slightly reduced future P/E multiple and near term uncertainty around full risk contract conversions, despite still underappreciated longer term Medicare Advantage upside.Narrative Update • Nov 19
ASTH: Future Revenue Guidance Will Drive Renewed Market Optimism
Astrana Health's analyst price target has been modestly reduced from $43.89 to $42.38. Analysts cite tempered expectations for revenue growth and profit margins, along with increased discount rates and higher forecasted P/E multiples.Analysis Article • Nov 01
Is Astrana Health (NASDAQ:ASTH) Using Too Much Debt?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Analysis Article • Jun 25
Astrana Health, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTH) Not Lagging Market On Growth Or Pricing
When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 18x, you may...Analysis Article • Feb 12
Astrana Health, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTH) Stocks Shoot Up 29% But Its P/E Still Looks Reasonable
Those holding Astrana Health, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ASTH ) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 29% in...Analysis Article • Jan 12
Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Astrana Health, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTH)
Key Insights The projected fair value for Astrana Health is US$36.03 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current...Analysis Article • Dec 27
Here's Why Astrana Health (NASDAQ:ASTH) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...Analysis Article • Dec 12
Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine Astrana Health, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTH)?
Astrana Health, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ASTH ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw significant share price movement...Analysis Article • Nov 22
Impressive Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Astrana Health (NASDAQ:ASTH)
Despite announcing strong earnings, Astrana Health, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:ASTH ) stock was sluggish. We did some digging and...Analysis Article • Nov 18
Astrana Health, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ASTH) 33% Cheaper Price Remains In Tune With Earnings
Astrana Health, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ASTH ) shares have had a horrible month, losing 33% after a relatively good period...Analysis Article • Nov 10
Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Astrana Health, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTH) After Its Third-Quarter Results
A week ago, Astrana Health, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ASTH ) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially...Analysis Article • Oct 04
Astrana Health, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ASTH) P/E Is Still On The Mark Following 25% Share Price Bounce
Astrana Health, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ASTH ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 25% gain in the last month...Analysis Article • Sep 26
Is Astrana Health, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTH) Trading At A 21% Discount?
Key Insights The projected fair value for Astrana Health is US$70.39 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Astrana...Analysis Article • Sep 12
Astrana Health's (NASDAQ:ASTH) Returns On Capital Not Reflecting Well On The Business
Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...
New Narrative • Sep 10
Transitioning To Full-Risk Contracts Fuels Revenue Growth And Expands Healthcare Leadership
Transitioning to full-risk arrangements and technological investments aims to boost net margins by aligning costs with reimbursements and enhancing healthcare delivery.Analysis Article • Aug 28
Is Astrana Health (NASDAQ:ASTH) Using Too Much Debt?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...Analysis Article • Aug 02
Astrana Health, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ASTH) 29% Jump Shows Its Popularity With Investors
Despite an already strong run, Astrana Health, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ASTH ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 29% in...Analysis Article • Jun 19
Is There Now An Opportunity In Astrana Health, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTH)?
While Astrana Health, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ASTH ) might not have the largest market cap around , it saw a decent share price...Analysis Article • Jun 02
Capital Allocation Trends At Astrana Health (NASDAQ:ASTH) Aren't Ideal
What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...Analysis Article • May 09
Astrana Health, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTH) First-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year
It's been a good week for Astrana Health, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ASTH ) shareholders, because the company has just released its...Shareholder Returns
| ASTH | US Healthcare | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 3.7% | 4.9% | -2.7% |
| 1Y | 44.3% | 18.0% | 22.5% |
Return vs Industry: ASTH exceeded the US Healthcare industry which returned 18% over the past year.
Return vs Market: ASTH exceeded the US Market which returned 22.5% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| ASTH volatility | |
|---|---|
| ASTH Average Weekly Movement | 5.7% |
| Healthcare Industry Average Movement | 7.3% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.6% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.1% |
Stable Share Price: ASTH has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: ASTH's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1992 | 3,000 | Brandon Sim | www.astranahealth.com |
Astrana Health, Inc., a healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement. The company offers care coordination services to patients, families, primary care physicians, specialists, acute care hospitals, alternative sites of inpatient care, physician groups, and health plans.
Astrana Health, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| ASTH fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$1.90b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$30.23m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$3.53b |
62.8x
P/E Ratio0.5x
P/S RatioIs ASTH overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| ASTH income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$3.53b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$3.15b |
| Gross Profit | US$375.95m |
| Other Expenses | US$345.71m |
| Earnings | US$30.23m |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 0.61 |
| Gross Margin | 10.66% |
| Net Profit Margin | 0.86% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 178.0% |
How did ASTH perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/09 22:16 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/09 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Astrana Health, Inc. is covered by 15 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Hua Ha | Baird |
| Andrew Mok | Barclays |
| Sarah James | Barclays |