Astrana Health, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTH) First-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

It's been a good week for Astrana Health, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTH) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 2.3% to US$38.09. Astrana Health missed revenue estimates by 2.3%, coming in atUS$404m, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.31 beat expectations, coming in 2.8% ahead of analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Astrana Health

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Astrana Health from seven analysts is for revenues of US$1.77b in 2024. If met, it would imply a substantial 22% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 14% to US$1.48. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.76b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.51 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$52.50, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Astrana Health analyst has a price target of US$70.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$44.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Astrana Health shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Astrana Health's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 30% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 23% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.7% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Astrana Health to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Astrana Health. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$52.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Astrana Health analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Astrana Health that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.