Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Astrana Health, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTH) After Its Third-Quarter Results

A week ago, Astrana Health, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTH) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 3.5% to hit US$479m. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$0.33, some 3.8% above whatthe analysts had expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Astrana Health

Following the latest results, Astrana Health's ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$2.50b in 2025. This would be a sizeable 45% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 19% to US$1.55. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.29b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.63 in 2025. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest results. Although there was a a sizeable to revenue, the consensus also made a small dip in its earnings per share forecasts.

There's been no major changes to the price target of US$64.88, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Astrana Health, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$70.00 and the most bearish at US$55.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Astrana Health's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 35% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 23% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Astrana Health is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$64.88, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Astrana Health. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Astrana Health going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Astrana Health is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.