First Watch Restaurant Group Valuation
Is FWRG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
1/6Valuation Score 1/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of FWRG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: FWRG ($15.74) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($14.7)
Significantly Below Fair Value: FWRG is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FWRG?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is FWRG's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | US$950.93m |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1.7x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 17.2x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.2x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does FWRG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 25.7x | ||
PTLO Portillo's | 35.2x | 19.9% | US$969.3m |
CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | 25.1x | 24.7% | US$1.0b |
BJRI BJ's Restaurants | 25.4x | 12.0% | US$740.3m |
RUTH Ruth's Hospitality Group | 16.9x | -1.9% | US$670.3m |
FWRG First Watch Restaurant Group | 39.3x | 17.9% | US$950.9m |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FWRG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39.3x) compared to the peer average (28.6x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does FWRG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FWRG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39.3x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (23.5x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is FWRG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 39.3x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 18x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FWRG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | US$15.74 | US$22.06 +40.1% | 11.0% | US$25.00 | US$18.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Sep ’25 | US$16.51 | US$22.06 +33.6% | 11.0% | US$25.00 | US$18.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Aug ’25 | US$15.67 | US$23.28 +48.5% | 13.9% | US$28.00 | US$18.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Jul ’25 | US$16.95 | US$25.44 +50.1% | 13.9% | US$29.00 | US$18.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Jun ’25 | US$19.68 | US$26.33 +33.8% | 8.2% | US$29.00 | US$22.00 | n/a | 9 |
| May ’25 | US$24.97 | US$27.89 +11.7% | 11.8% | US$32.00 | US$22.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Apr ’25 | US$25.40 | US$27.89 +9.8% | 11.8% | US$32.00 | US$22.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Mar ’25 | US$25.37 | US$24.00 -5.4% | 11.5% | US$29.00 | US$20.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Feb ’25 | US$22.16 | US$23.56 +6.3% | 9.2% | US$28.00 | US$20.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Jan ’25 | US$20.10 | US$22.67 +12.8% | 11.6% | US$28.00 | US$18.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Dec ’24 | US$18.74 | US$22.67 +21.0% | 11.6% | US$28.00 | US$18.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Nov ’24 | US$17.13 | US$22.33 +30.4% | 9.2% | US$25.00 | US$18.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Oct ’24 | US$17.29 | US$23.22 +34.3% | 6.0% | US$25.00 | US$20.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Sep ’24 | US$19.07 | US$23.22 +21.8% | 6.0% | US$25.00 | US$20.00 | US$16.51 | 9 |
| Aug ’24 | US$19.98 | US$22.67 +13.4% | 6.2% | US$24.00 | US$20.00 | US$15.67 | 9 |
| Jul ’24 | US$16.90 | US$21.25 +25.7% | 4.6% | US$22.00 | US$19.00 | US$16.95 | 8 |
| Jun ’24 | US$17.83 | US$21.25 +19.2% | 4.6% | US$22.00 | US$19.00 | US$19.68 | 8 |
| May ’24 | US$16.69 | US$20.25 +21.3% | 7.7% | US$22.00 | US$17.00 | US$24.97 | 8 |
| Apr ’24 | US$16.06 | US$20.25 +26.1% | 7.7% | US$22.00 | US$17.00 | US$25.40 | 8 |
| Mar ’24 | US$15.74 | US$20.75 +31.8% | 9.3% | US$23.00 | US$17.00 | US$25.37 | 8 |
| Feb ’24 | US$15.76 | US$20.75 +31.7% | 9.3% | US$23.00 | US$17.00 | US$22.16 | 8 |
| Jan ’24 | US$13.53 | US$20.78 +53.6% | 9.3% | US$24.00 | US$17.00 | US$20.10 | 9 |
| Dec ’23 | US$16.21 | US$21.40 +32.0% | 12.2% | US$27.00 | US$17.00 | US$18.74 | 10 |
| Nov ’23 | US$16.51 | US$21.65 +31.1% | 11.4% | US$27.00 | US$18.50 | US$17.13 | 10 |
| Oct ’23 | US$14.48 | US$22.05 +52.3% | 10.6% | US$27.00 | US$18.50 | US$17.29 | 10 |
| Sep ’23 | US$17.12 | US$22.05 +28.8% | 10.6% | US$27.00 | US$18.50 | US$19.07 | 10 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.