The Simply Good Foods Company

NasdaqCM:SMPL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.4b

Simply Good Foods Valuation

Is SMPL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SMPL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SMPL ($33.94) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($65.27)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SMPL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SMPL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

SMPL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA15.2x
PEG Ratio1.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SMPL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SMPL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30.2x
JJSF J&J Snack Foods
37x20.6%US$3.2b
NOMD Nomad Foods
12.6x18.8%US$2.9b
FLO Flowers Foods
36.1x25.6%US$4.6b
TWNK Hostess Brands
35x14.4%US$4.4b
SMPL Simply Good Foods
24.4x12.8%US$3.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SMPL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.4x) compared to the peer average (-325x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SMPL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Food Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a11.4%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a11.4%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SMPL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.4x) compared to the US Food industry average (17.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SMPL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SMPL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio24.4x
Fair PE Ratio21.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SMPL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.2x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SMPL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$33.94
US$39.20
+15.5%
10.2%US$46.00US$33.00n/a10
Oct ’25US$34.85
US$40.00
+14.8%
12.3%US$49.00US$33.00n/a10
Sep ’25US$31.59
US$39.33
+24.5%
12.1%US$49.00US$33.00n/a9
Aug ’25US$34.03
US$39.50
+16.1%
11.5%US$49.00US$33.00n/a10
Jul ’25US$35.77
US$40.00
+11.8%
10.1%US$49.00US$34.00n/a10
Jun ’25US$38.49
US$40.00
+3.9%
11.1%US$49.00US$34.00n/a12
May ’25US$36.75
US$40.35
+9.8%
11.0%US$49.00US$34.00n/a13
Apr ’25US$34.15
US$43.73
+28.0%
11.2%US$50.00US$36.00n/a11
Mar ’25US$35.15
US$45.73
+30.1%
8.5%US$50.00US$36.00n/a11
Feb ’25US$37.91
US$46.17
+21.8%
6.4%US$50.00US$40.00n/a12
Jan ’25US$39.60
US$42.58
+7.5%
7.1%US$49.00US$37.00n/a12
Dec ’24US$39.08
US$42.64
+9.1%
7.4%US$49.00US$37.00n/a11
Nov ’24US$36.42
US$42.55
+16.8%
7.8%US$49.00US$36.00n/a11
Oct ’24US$34.52
US$42.91
+24.3%
6.2%US$49.00US$40.00US$34.8511
Sep ’24US$36.18
US$42.82
+18.3%
7.0%US$49.00US$37.00US$31.5911
Aug ’24US$38.88
US$42.83
+10.2%
6.7%US$49.00US$37.00US$34.0312
Jul ’24US$36.59
US$42.58
+16.4%
8.1%US$49.00US$34.00US$35.7712
Jun ’24US$35.79
US$42.46
+18.6%
8.0%US$48.00US$34.00US$38.4913
May ’24US$36.81
US$42.36
+15.1%
7.8%US$48.00US$34.00US$36.7514
Apr ’24US$39.77
US$42.21
+6.1%
7.7%US$46.00US$34.00US$34.1514
Mar ’24US$37.30
US$41.73
+11.9%
7.7%US$46.00US$34.00US$35.1515
Feb ’24US$36.46
US$41.73
+14.5%
7.7%US$46.00US$34.00US$37.9115
Jan ’24US$38.03
US$42.47
+11.7%
9.2%US$50.00US$34.50US$39.6016
Dec ’23US$39.42
US$41.96
+6.5%
9.6%US$50.00US$34.50US$39.0814
Nov ’23US$37.67
US$41.79
+10.9%
10.5%US$50.00US$32.00US$36.4214
Oct ’23US$31.99
US$43.50
+36.0%
9.4%US$48.00US$32.00US$34.5214

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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