Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited

LSE:GKP Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£384.8m

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Valuation

Is GKP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GKP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

UK£0.69
Fair Value
160.6% overvalued intrinsic discount
4
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: GKP (£1.79) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£0.69)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GKP is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GKP?

Key metric: As GKP is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for GKP. This is calculated by dividing GKP's market cap by their current revenue.
What is GKP's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio3.1x
SalesUS$163.17m
Market CapUS$501.58m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does GKP's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for GKP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.3x
DEC Diversified Energy
0.9x9.71%UK£800.0m
GENL Genel Energy
3.1x14.60%UK£176.2m
ENQ EnQuest
0.2x-6.47%UK£221.6m
KIST Kistos Holdings
1x10.71%UK£153.3m
GKP Gulf Keystone Petroleum
3.1x18.82%UK£384.8m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: GKP is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.1x) compared to the peer average (1.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does GKP's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Oil and Gas Industry?

15 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BP. BP
0.5x2.34%US$90.74b
ROSN Rosneft Oil
0.1xn/aUS$21.03b
ENQ EnQuest
0.2x-6.47%US$288.86m
TLW Tullow Oil
0.1x-8.67%US$178.17m
GKP 3.1xIndustry Avg. 1.8xNo. of Companies15PS0246810+
15 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: GKP is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.1x) compared to the UK Oil and Gas industry average (1.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GKP's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GKP PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio3.1x
Fair PS Ratio0.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: GKP is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GKP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£1.79
UK£2.27
+27.01%
19.58%UK£2.63UK£1.51n/a4
Oct ’26UK£2.19
UK£2.14
-2.24%
18.71%UK£2.49UK£1.51n/a4
Sep ’26UK£1.94
UK£2.03
+4.72%
17.04%UK£2.47UK£1.50n/a4
Aug ’26UK£1.62
UK£2.01
+23.79%
21.62%UK£2.49UK£1.44n/a3
Jul ’26UK£1.66
UK£1.92
+15.75%
19.36%UK£2.44UK£1.41n/a4
Jun ’26UK£1.59
UK£1.89
+19.23%
20.01%UK£2.49UK£1.44n/a4
May ’26UK£1.51
UK£1.89
+25.55%
20.01%UK£2.49UK£1.44n/a4
Apr ’26UK£1.93
UK£2.02
+4.81%
19.23%UK£2.49UK£1.46n/a4
Mar ’26UK£1.90
UK£1.80
-5.62%
10.03%UK£1.95UK£1.50n/a4
Feb ’26UK£1.71
UK£1.77
+3.63%
16.84%UK£2.00UK£1.26n/a4
Jan ’26UK£1.46
UK£1.71
+17.32%
16.59%UK£1.95UK£1.22n/a4
Dec ’25UK£1.48
UK£1.70
+14.67%
16.99%UK£1.91UK£1.20n/a4
Nov ’25UK£1.29
UK£1.70
+32.25%
16.99%UK£1.91UK£1.20UK£1.814
Oct ’25UK£1.17
UK£1.71
+46.19%
17.26%UK£1.90UK£1.20UK£2.194
Sep ’25UK£1.26
UK£1.71
+36.10%
17.26%UK£1.90UK£1.20UK£1.944
Aug ’25UK£1.32
UK£1.63
+23.93%
19.61%UK£1.87UK£1.18UK£1.623
Jul ’25UK£1.49
UK£1.61
+8.04%
18.49%UK£1.90UK£1.20UK£1.663
Jun ’25UK£1.43
UK£1.53
+6.47%
25.24%UK£1.88UK£0.99UK£1.593
May ’25UK£1.16
UK£1.55
+33.28%
24.72%UK£1.89UK£1.01UK£1.513
Apr ’25UK£1.13
UK£1.79
+58.41%
32.93%UK£2.66UK£1.00UK£1.934
Mar ’25UK£1.00
UK£1.81
+81.37%
32.20%UK£2.65UK£1.00UK£1.904
Feb ’25UK£1.02
UK£1.84
+79.90%
32.01%UK£2.65UK£0.99UK£1.714
Jan ’25UK£1.29
UK£1.87
+44.67%
31.62%UK£2.66UK£0.99UK£1.464
Dec ’24UK£1.29
UK£2.16
+67.79%
16.04%UK£2.76UK£1.90UK£1.484
Nov ’24UK£1.21
UK£2.16
+79.33%
16.04%UK£2.76UK£1.90UK£1.294
UK£2.27
Fair Value
21.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
4
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/11/05 18:39
End of Day Share Price 2025/11/05 00:00
Earnings2025/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited is covered by 17 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
James CarmichaelBerenberg
Charlie SharpCanaccord Genuity
Philip HallamCanaccord Genuity