Reported Earnings • Mar 29
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥7.40 (up from JP¥20.73 loss in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥6.54b (up 11% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥280.0m (up JP¥1.07b from FY 2024). Profit margin: 4.3% (up from net loss in FY 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 4.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 4.2%. Revenue is forecast to grow 10.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 107 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Reported Earnings • Feb 10
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥7.40 (up from JP¥20.73 loss in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥6.54b (up 11% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥280.0m (up JP¥1.07b from FY 2024). Profit margin: 4.3% (up from net loss in FY 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 4.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 4.2%. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 106 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Feb 09
Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 24, 2026 Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 24, 2026. Announcement • Feb 05
Nippon Life Insurance Company completed the acquisition of 52.34% stake in Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. (TSE:3902) from MediPal Holdings Corporation (TSE:7459), Hiroyuki Iwasaki and others for ¥33.9 billion. Nippon Life Insurance Company proposed to acquire 62.19% stake in Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. (TSE:3902) from MediPal Holdings Corporation (TSE:7459), Hiroyuki Iwasaki and others for ¥40.4 billion on December 15, 2025. A cash consideration valued at ¥1 per right and valued at ¥1693 per share will be paid by Nippon Life Insurance Company. As part of consideration, ¥3706 is paid towards Fourth Series of Share Acquisition Rights, ¥1400 is paid towards Fifth Series of Share Acquisition Rights and ¥40.4 billion is paid towards common equity of Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. In a related transaction, Nippon Life Insurance Company is acquiring 37.81% stake in Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. from SBI Holdings, Inc. Upon completion of the transactions, Nippon Life Insurance Company will hold 100% stake in Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd.
The transaction is subject to minimum tender. The expected completion of the transaction is February 3, 2026.
SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. acted as tender offer agent.
Nippon Life Insurance Company completed the acquisition of 52.34% stake in Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. (TSE:3902) from MediPal Holdings Corporation (TSE:7459), Hiroyuki Iwasaki and others on February 3, 2025. Announcement • Dec 26
Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Feb 09, 2026 Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Feb 09, 2026 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Dec 16
Now 26% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 8.6% to JP¥642. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥510, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Announcement • Dec 16
Nippon Life Insurance Company proposed to acquire 62.19% stake in Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. (TSE:3902) from MediPal Holdings Corporation (TSE:7459), Hiroyuki Iwasaki and others for ¥40.4 billion. Nippon Life Insurance Company proposed to acquire 62.19% stake in Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. (TSE:3902) from MediPal Holdings Corporation (TSE:7459), Hiroyuki Iwasaki and others for ¥40.4 billion on December 15, 2025. A cash consideration valued at ¥1 per right and valued at ¥1693 per share will be paid by Nippon Life Insurance Company. As part of consideration, ¥3706 is paid towards Fourth Series of Share Acquisition Rights, ¥1400 is paid towards Fifth Series of Share Acquisition Rights and ¥40.4 billion is paid towards common equity of Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. In a related transaction, Nippon Life Insurance Company is acquiring 37.81% stake in Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. from SBI Holdings, Inc. Upon completion of the transactions, Nippon Life Insurance Company will hold 100% stake in Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd.
The transaction is subject to minimum tender. The expected completion of the transaction is February 3, 2026.
SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. acted as tender offer agent. Reported Earnings • Nov 18
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥1.72 (vs JP¥5.97 loss in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥1.72 (up from JP¥5.97 loss in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥1.62b (up 20% from 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥65.0m (up JP¥293.0m from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 4.0% (up from net loss in 3Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 73 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Price Target Changed • Oct 23
Price target decreased by 9.6% to JP¥425 Down from JP¥470, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 9.2% below last closing price of JP¥468. Stock is down 8.9% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥7.10 next year compared to a net loss per share of JP¥20.73 last year. New Risk • Oct 15
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 8.3% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (8.3% average weekly change). Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Dividend per share is over 68x cash flows per share. Announcement • Sep 21
Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Nov 14, 2025 Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Nov 14, 2025 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 15
Now 24% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 38% to JP¥546. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥441, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Declared Dividend • Aug 14
Dividend of JP¥9.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥9.00. Ex-date: 29th December 2025 Payment date: 26th March 2026 Dividend yield will be 1.7%, which is higher than the industry average of 0.9%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months and having no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 20% per year over the past 6 years and payments have been stable during that time. Reported Earnings • Aug 13
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: JP¥0.60 loss per share (vs JP¥1.86 loss in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: JP¥0.60 loss per share (improved from JP¥1.86 loss in 2Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥1.50b (up 7.9% from 2Q 2024). Net loss: JP¥22.6m (loss narrowed 68% from 2Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 60 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 23
Now 20% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 14% to JP¥484. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥402, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Announcement • Jun 21
Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Aug 12, 2025 Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on Aug 12, 2025 New Risk • May 18
New major risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. The company is paying a dividend despite being loss-making. The company is paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Dividend yield: 2.3% This is considered a major risk. Companies that pay out too much of their earnings and cash flows are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If earnings or cash flows stagnate or fall, then there may not be enough to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to dig into capital reserves or take on debt to maintain the dividend. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.6% average weekly change). Reported Earnings • May 13
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥0.32 (vs JP¥0.39 loss in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥0.32 (up from JP¥0.39 loss in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥1.53b (up 10% from 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥12.0m (up JP¥27.0m from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 0.8% (up from net loss in 1Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 12% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 53 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. New Risk • Apr 07
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 7.7% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (7.7% average weekly change). Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (JP¥12.7b market cap, or US$86.7m). Reported Earnings • Mar 28
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: JP¥20.73 loss per share (down from JP¥25.63 profit in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥5.91b (down 8.0% from FY 2023). Net loss: JP¥791.0m (down 181% from profit in FY 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 9.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 12% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 55% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 30% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Mar 22
Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on May 12, 2025 Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on May 12, 2025 Price Target Changed • Mar 13
Price target decreased by 8.5% to JP¥430 Down from JP¥470, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 7.2% above last closing price of JP¥401. Stock is down 29% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥19.20 next year compared to a net loss per share of JP¥20.73 last year. New Risk • Mar 05
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: JP¥14.9b (US$99.8m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.9% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (JP¥14.9b market cap, or US$99.8m). Reported Earnings • Feb 11
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: JP¥20.73 loss per share (down from JP¥25.63 profit in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥5.91b (down 8.0% from FY 2023). Net loss: JP¥791.0m (down 181% from profit in FY 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 9.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 55% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 19% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Feb 10
Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 25, 2025 Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 25, 2025. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 03
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 3.8% to JP¥502. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥628, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 3.9% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 29%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 11% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 32% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • Dec 20
Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Feb 10, 2025 Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Feb 10, 2025 Upcoming Dividend • Dec 20
Upcoming dividend of JP¥6.50 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 December 2024. Payment date: 28 March 2025. The company is paying out more than 100% of its earnings and cash flow. Trailing yield: 1.7%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.8%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.4%). New Risk • Dec 11
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: JP¥15.2b (US$99.9m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.8% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (0.1% net profit margin). Market cap is less than US$100m (JP¥15.2b market cap, or US$99.9m). Major Estimate Revision • Nov 20
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 56%, revenue downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast fell from JP¥7.08b to JP¥6.50b. EPS estimate rose from JP¥16.23 to JP¥25.40. Net income forecast to grow 11,273% next year vs 41% growth forecast for Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Consensus price target down from JP¥525 to JP¥480. Share price was steady at JP¥437 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 13
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: JP¥5.97 loss per share (vs JP¥5.60 profit in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: JP¥5.97 loss per share (down from JP¥5.60 profit in 3Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥1.35b (down 9.4% from 3Q 2023). Net loss: JP¥228.0m (down 207% from profit in 3Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 14% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 29% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 34% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 13
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17% After last week's 17% share price decline to JP¥438, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 24x. Average forward P/E is 20x in the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 71% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥599 per share. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 12
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 5.2% to JP¥473. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥598, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 5.8% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 13%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 11% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 22% per annum over the same time period. New Risk • Nov 07
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 5.9% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk High level of non-cash earnings (29% accrual ratio). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.9% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.2% net profit margin). Announcement • Sep 27
Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. (TSE:3902) announces an Equity Buyback for 2,000,000 shares, representing 5.24% for ¥1,000 million. Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. (TSE:3902) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 2,000,000 shares, representing 5.24% of its issued share capital, for ¥1,000 million. The purpose of the program is to to improve shareholder returns through increased capital efficiency, to implement flexible capital policies such as M&A, and to secure talented personnel by utilizing incentive plans for directors and employees. The program will be valid till March 31, 2025. As of June 30, 2024, the company had 38,196,848 issued shares (excluding treasury stock) and 1,830,678 treasury shares. Announcement • Sep 19
Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Nov 11, 2024 Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Nov 11, 2024 New Risk • Aug 19
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 7.2% Last year net profit margin: 13% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk High level of non-cash earnings (29% accrual ratio). Minor Risk Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.2% net profit margin). Declared Dividend • Aug 10
Dividend of JP¥6.50 announced Dividend of JP¥6.50 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 27th December 2024 Payment date: 28th March 2025 Dividend yield will be 1.4%, which is higher than the industry average of 0.9%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (36% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (16% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 17% per year over the past 5 years and payments have been stable during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 34% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. New Risk • Aug 05
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 7.7% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 05
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 21% After last week's 21% share price decline to JP¥437, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 14x. Average forward P/E is 18x in the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 77% over the past three years. Announcement • Jun 23
Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Aug 08, 2024 Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results on Aug 08, 2024 New Risk • May 31
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 5.6% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • May 16
First quarter 2024 earnings released: JP¥0.39 loss per share (vs JP¥7.20 profit in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: JP¥0.39 loss per share (down from JP¥7.20 profit in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥1.39b (down 11% from 1Q 2023). Net loss: JP¥15.0m (down 106% from profit in 1Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 12% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 5% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 38% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 24
Now 21% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 7.8% to JP¥602. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥498, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 9.7% over the last 3 years, while earnings per share has been flat. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 11% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 11% per annum over the same time period. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 27
Now 22% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 5.5% to JP¥607. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥497, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 9.7% over the last 3 years, while earnings per share has been flat. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 11% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 11% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • Mar 23
Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on May 13, 2024 Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on May 13, 2024 Reported Earnings • Feb 14
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥25.63 (vs JP¥22.75 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥25.63 (up from JP¥22.75 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥6.42b (up 5.2% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥979.0m (up 13% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 15% (up from 14% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 2% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 37% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Feb 13
Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 27, 2024 Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 27, 2024. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 01
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 11% to JP¥631. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥801, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 11% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 3.5%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 12% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 15% per annum over the same time period. Buying Opportunity • Jan 17
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 9.4%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥797, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 11% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 3.5%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 12% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 15% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • Dec 23
Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Feb 13, 2024 Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Feb 13, 2024 Upcoming Dividend • Dec 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥6.50 per share at 1.1% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 December 2023. Payment date: 29 March 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 30% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.1%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.5%). Higher than average of industry peers (0.8%). Buying Opportunity • Dec 07
Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 16%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥825, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 11% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 3.5%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 13% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 15% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Nov 15
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥5.60 (vs JP¥6.65 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥5.60 (down from JP¥6.65 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥1.49b (up 1.0% from 3Q 2022). Net income: JP¥214.0m (down 16% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 14% (down from 17% in 3Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 13% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 14% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 3% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 34% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Buying Opportunity • Oct 23
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 1.8%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥845, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 13% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 9.2%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 13% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 15% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • Sep 23
Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 13, 2023 Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Nov 13, 2023 Buying Opportunity • Aug 14
Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 17%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥810, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 13% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 9.2%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 13% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 15% per annum over the same time period. New Risk • Aug 14
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 13% Last year net profit margin: 19% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Aug 12
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥4.45 (vs JP¥5.47 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥4.45 (down from JP¥5.47 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥1.44b (up 7.3% from 2Q 2022). Net income: JP¥170.0m (down 19% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 12% (down from 16% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 13% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 9% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 24% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Aug 11
Price target decreased by 14% to JP¥815 Down from JP¥950, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 19% above last closing price of JP¥687. Stock is down 46% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥30.20 for next year compared to JP¥22.75 last year. Announcement • Jun 23
Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Aug 10, 2023 Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. announced that they will report Q2, 2023 results on Aug 10, 2023 New Risk • Jun 17
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 5.3% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 18
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to JP¥718, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 23x. Average forward P/E is 25x in the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 32% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at JP¥629 per share. Reported Earnings • May 16
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥7.20 (vs JP¥8.16 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥7.20 (down from JP¥8.16 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥1.56b (up 3.2% from 1Q 2022). Net income: JP¥275.0m (down 12% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 18% (down from 21% in 1Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 13% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 12% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 15% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Reported Earnings • Mar 31
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: JP¥22.75 (down from JP¥27.74 in FY 2021). Revenue: JP¥6.10b (up 7.6% from FY 2021). Net income: JP¥870.0m (down 20% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 14% (down from 19% in FY 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 26%. Revenue is forecast to grow 13% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 22% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Feb 14
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: JP¥22.75 (down from JP¥27.74 in FY 2021). Revenue: JP¥6.10b (up 7.6% from FY 2021). Net income: JP¥870.0m (down 20% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 14% (down from 19% in FY 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 26%. Revenue is forecast to grow 13% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 14% growth forecast for the Healthcare Services industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 22% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Feb 14
Price target decreased by 15% to JP¥1,010 Down from JP¥1,190, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 11% above last closing price of JP¥914. Stock is down 12% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥30.90 for next year compared to JP¥27.74 last year. Announcement • Feb 13
Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 28, 2023 Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Mar 28, 2023. Announcement • Dec 24
Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2022 Results on Feb 13, 2023 Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2022 results on Feb 13, 2023 Upcoming Dividend • Dec 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥6.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 December 2022. Payment date: 30 March 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 18% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 0.7%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.8%). Higher than average of industry peers (0.5%). Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 2 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 2 independent directors. 4 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Corporate Auditor Masaaki Takaki was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. 
