Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd.

TSE:3902 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥14.3b

Medical Data Vision Valuation

Is 3902 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3902 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3902 (¥375) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥584.25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3902 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3902?

Key metric: As 3902 is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 3902. This is calculated by dividing 3902's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 3902's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio2.4x
SalesJP¥6.06b
Market CapJP¥14.32b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 3902's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 3902 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8.9x
5592 Kusurinomadoguchi
1.5xn/aJP¥15.2b
4263 SUSMEDInc
28.5xn/aJP¥9.8b
3649 FINDEX
3.4x10.5%JP¥20.6b
9341 GENOVA
2.3xn/aJP¥22.5b
3902 Medical Data Vision
2.4x12.1%JP¥14.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 3902 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.4x) compared to the peer average (8.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 3902's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Healthcare Services Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PS range
3902 2.4xIndustry Avg. 2.3xNo. of Companies4PS0246810+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 3902 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.4x) compared to the JP Healthcare Services industry average (2.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3902's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3902 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio2.4x
Fair PS Ratio2.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 3902 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 3902 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥375.00
JP¥480.00
+28.0%
8.3%JP¥520.00JP¥440.00n/a2
Dec ’25JP¥448.00
JP¥480.00
+7.1%
8.3%JP¥520.00JP¥440.00n/a2
Nov ’25JP¥521.00
JP¥525.00
+0.8%
1.0%JP¥530.00JP¥520.00n/a2
Oct ’25JP¥557.00
JP¥525.00
-5.7%
1.0%JP¥530.00JP¥520.00n/a2
Sep ’25JP¥531.00
JP¥525.00
-1.1%
1.0%JP¥530.00JP¥520.00n/a2
Feb ’25JP¥631.00
JP¥815.00
+29.2%
3.1%JP¥840.00JP¥790.00n/a2
Jan ’25JP¥655.00
JP¥815.00
+24.4%
3.1%JP¥840.00JP¥790.00n/a2
Dec ’24JP¥688.00
JP¥815.00
+18.5%
3.1%JP¥840.00JP¥790.00JP¥448.002
Nov ’24JP¥681.00
JP¥815.00
+19.7%
3.1%JP¥840.00JP¥790.00JP¥521.002
Oct ’24JP¥805.00
JP¥815.00
+1.2%
3.1%JP¥840.00JP¥790.00JP¥557.002
Sep ’24JP¥756.00
JP¥815.00
+7.8%
3.1%JP¥840.00JP¥790.00JP¥531.002
Aug ’24JP¥697.00
JP¥950.00
+36.3%
11.6%JP¥1,060.00JP¥840.00JP¥522.002
Jul ’24JP¥725.00
JP¥950.00
+31.0%
11.6%JP¥1,060.00JP¥840.00JP¥605.002
Jun ’24JP¥690.00
JP¥1,010.00
+46.4%
5.0%JP¥1,060.00JP¥960.00JP¥531.002
May ’24JP¥813.00
JP¥1,010.00
+24.2%
5.0%JP¥1,060.00JP¥960.00JP¥584.002
Apr ’24JP¥905.00
JP¥1,010.00
+11.6%
5.0%JP¥1,060.00JP¥960.00JP¥615.002
Mar ’24JP¥892.00
JP¥1,010.00
+13.2%
5.0%JP¥1,060.00JP¥960.00JP¥574.002
Feb ’24JP¥993.00
JP¥1,230.00
+23.9%
15.4%JP¥1,420.00JP¥1,040.00JP¥631.002
Jan ’24JP¥898.00
JP¥1,230.00
+37.0%
15.4%JP¥1,420.00JP¥1,040.00JP¥655.002
Dec ’23JP¥1,005.00
JP¥1,230.00
+22.4%
15.4%JP¥1,420.00JP¥1,040.00JP¥688.002

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/21 04:51
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd. is covered by 6 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Yushi KawamotoHaitong International Research Limited
Masatoshi NagataIchiyoshi Research Institute Inc.
Hangil MoonJefferies LLC