Viva Energy Group Future Growth
Future criteria checks 4/6
Viva Energy Group is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 36.6% and 3.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 36.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 21.9% in 3 years.
Key information
36.6%
Earnings growth rate
36.78%
EPS growth rate
| Oil and Gas earnings growth | 12.1% |
| Revenue growth rate | 3.1% |
| Future return on equity | 21.88% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 18 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 05
VEA: Retail Expansion And Refining Recovery Will Shape Future Returns
Analysts have lifted their price target for Viva Energy Group to A$2.76 from A$2.66, reflecting updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E expectations. What's in the News Viva Energy is positioned in the Australian downstream energy sector with operations in refining, fuel distribution and retail convenience, according to recent coverage titled "Is This Right Time to Buy Viva Energy (ASX:VEA)?".
Narrative Update • May 20
VEA: Stable Fair Value Will Balance Elevated P/E And Upcoming Dividend
Analysts have kept their A$2.25 price target for Viva Energy Group unchanged, citing slightly higher discount rate assumptions, a smaller forecast revenue decline, marginally firmer profit margins, and a broadly stable future P/E outlook. What's in the News Declared an ordinary fully franked dividend of A$0.0394 per share for the six-month period ended 31 December 2025, providing investors with clarity on the next scheduled cash payout (Key Developments) The ex-dividend date is set for 12 March 2026, which is the cutoff for buyers who want to receive this dividend (Key Developments) The record date is fixed at 13 March 2026, determining which shareholders on the register will be eligible for the dividend (Key Developments) The dividend payment date is scheduled for 31 March 2026, indicating when eligible shareholders are expected to receive funds (Key Developments) Valuation Changes Fair Value: A$2.25 remains unchanged, with no adjustment to the overall valuation anchor.Narrative Update • May 02
VEA: Elevated Future P/E Multiple Will Drive Cautious Return Expectations
Analysts have lifted their price target for Viva Energy Group to A$2.25 from A$1.90, citing updates to fair value, discount rate assumptions and their expectations for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples. What's in the News Viva Energy Group has declared an ordinary fully franked dividend of A$0.0394 per share for the six month period ended 31 December 2025 (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Apr 17
VEA: Dividend Timeline And Updated Assumptions Will Shape Future Returns
Analysts have adjusted their price target for Viva Energy Group slightly higher to A$2.66 from A$2.62. This reflects updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, the discount rate and future P/E expectations.Narrative Update • Apr 01
VEA: Dividend Outlook And Revised Assumptions Will Shape Future Returns
Analysts have modestly lifted their price target on Viva Energy Group to A$2.62 from A$2.57, reflecting updated assumptions that include a lower discount rate, slightly higher revenue growth expectations, a reduced profit margin outlook, and a higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Viva Energy Group declared an ordinary fully franked dividend of A$0.0394 per share for the six month period ended 31 December 2025 (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Mar 17
VEA: Dividend Visibility And Adjusted Assumptions Will Support A Higher Future P/E
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Viva Energy Group by A$0.20, citing updated assumptions that reflect a lower discount rate, a neutral profit margin view, a modestly reduced future P/E multiple, and a revised revenue growth outlook. What's in the News Viva Energy Group declared an ordinary fully franked dividend of A$0.0394 per share for the six month period ended 31 December 2025, giving investors clarity on the upcoming income payment schedule (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Mar 03
VEA: Dividend Outlook And Higher P/E Multiple Will Shape Future Returns
Analysts have kept their price target on Viva Energy Group at A$1.90, reflecting updated assumptions for discount rates, revenue trends, profit margins and a higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Viva Energy Group has declared an ordinary fully franked dividend of A$0.0394 per share for the six month period ended 31 December 2025 (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Feb 17
VEA: Lower Growth Assumptions Will Support A Higher Future P/E
Analysts have trimmed their price target for Viva Energy Group from A$3.40 to A$3.10, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and a slightly higher future P/E multiple. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Trimmed from A$3.40 to A$3.10 per share, reflecting updated assumptions in the model.Narrative Update • Feb 03
VEA: Higher Discount Rate And Stable Margins Will Guide Future Returns
Analysts have adjusted their price target on Viva Energy Group to reflect small changes in the discount rate, revenue growth assumptions, profit margin estimates, and the implied future P/E multiple, which has led to a modestly revised valuation range for the shares. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Modelled fair value per share is unchanged at A$1.90, indicating no shift in the central valuation point.Narrative Update • Jan 20
VEA: Higher Discount Rate And Softer Margins Will Shape Future Returns
Analysts have revised their price target for Viva Energy Group, setting the fair value at A$1.90. This reflects slightly higher discount rate assumptions, marginally softer revenue growth and profit margin inputs, and a modestly higher future P/E multiple in their models.Narrative Update • Jan 06
VEA: Higher Discount Rate And Lower P/E Will Pressure Future Returns
Analysts have lifted their price target on Viva Energy Group by A$1.90, citing updated assumptions around a slightly higher discount rate, a smaller projected revenue decline, firmer profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Stated uplift in assessed value of A$1.90 compared with the prior estimate.Analysis Article • Dec 22
Viva Energy Group Limited's (ASX:VEA) Share Price Is Matching Sentiment Around Its Revenues
You may think that with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.1x Viva Energy Group Limited ( ASX:VEA ) is definitely a...Narrative Update • Dec 14
VEA: Lower Risk Profile Will Fail To Offset Weakening Profit Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target on Viva Energy Group from A$1.90 to A$1.95, citing expectations of stronger profit margins and a lower perceived risk profile, despite softer revenue growth forecasts and a de rating of future earnings multiples. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Unchanged at A$1.90 per share, indicating that the updated assumptions have not altered the central valuation estimate.Analysis Article • Aug 29
Viva Energy Group Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
Last week saw the newest interim earnings release from Viva Energy Group Limited ( ASX:VEA ), an important milestone in...Analysis Article • Aug 25
There's No Escaping Viva Energy Group Limited's (ASX:VEA) Muted Revenues
Viva Energy Group Limited's ( ASX:VEA ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.1x might make it look like a strong buy...Analysis Article • May 08
Improved Revenues Required Before Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX:VEA) Stock's 27% Jump Looks Justified
Viva Energy Group Limited ( ASX:VEA ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 27% in...Analysis Article • Mar 28
Viva Energy Group (ASX:VEA) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to...
New Narrative • Mar 14
Low-sulphur Fuel Production At Geelong Will Improve Operational Efficiency
Strategic investments and acquisitions, including into commercial sectors, support growth and are expected to enhance future earnings and revenue.Analysis Article • Dec 17
Viva Energy Group Limited's (ASX:VEA) Business And Shares Still Trailing The Industry
With a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.1x Viva Energy Group Limited ( ASX:VEA ) may be sending very bullish...Analysis Article • Nov 16
We Think Viva Energy Group (ASX:VEA) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Analysis Article • Sep 01
Viva Energy Group's (ASX:VEA) Promising Earnings May Rest On Soft Foundations
Despite announcing strong earnings, Viva Energy Group Limited's ( ASX:VEA ) stock was sluggish. We did some digging and...Analysis Article • Mar 18
We Think Viva Energy Group (ASX:VEA) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Analysis Article • Feb 25
Viva Energy Group (ASX:VEA) Is Paying Out Less In Dividends Than Last Year
Viva Energy Group Limited ( ASX:VEA ) has announced that on 22nd of March, it will be paying a dividend ofA$0.071...Analysis Article • Feb 24
A Look At The Fair Value Of Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX:VEA)
Key Insights The projected fair value for Viva Energy Group is AU$3.72 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Viva...Analysis Article • Dec 15
Investors Could Be Concerned With Viva Energy Group's (ASX:VEA) Returns On Capital
Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? One common approach...Analysis Article • Nov 09
Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX:VEA)
Key Insights The projected fair value for Viva Energy Group is AU$2.57 based on Dividend Discount Model Viva Energy...Analysis Article • Sep 14
Here's Why Viva Energy Group (ASX:VEA) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Analysis Article • Aug 28
Viva Energy Group's (ASX:VEA) Shareholders Will Receive A Smaller Dividend Than Last Year
The board of Viva Energy Group Limited ( ASX:VEA ) has announced it will be reducing its dividend by 38% from last...Analysis Article • Jul 07
Estimating The Fair Value Of Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX:VEA)
Key Insights Viva Energy Group's estimated fair value is AU$2.98 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current...Analysis Article • Jun 07
Here's Why We Think Viva Energy Group (ASX:VEA) Might Deserve Your Attention Today
Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 31,917 | 310 | 449 | 858 | 7 |
| 12/31/2027 | 31,192 | 318 | 508 | 869 | 8 |
| 12/31/2026 | 30,299 | 559 | 877 | 1,139 | 9 |
| 12/31/2025 | 28,529 | -421 | 152 | 709 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 28,970 | -386 | 83 | 686 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 30,717 | -352 | 15 | 663 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 30,429 | -214 | 16 | 634 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 28,838 | -76 | 18 | 606 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 28,618 | 43 | 135 | 663 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 28,399 | 161 | 253 | 720 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 27,570 | 83 | 220 | 700 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 26,741 | 4 | 186 | 679 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 27,190 | -40 | 256 | 720 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 27,638 | -84 | 326 | 760 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 27,035 | 215 | 564 | 933 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 26,433 | 514 | 802 | 1,106 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 23,316 | 569 | 737 | 1,002 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 20,200 | 624 | 671 | 899 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 18,050 | 428 | 508 | 715 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 15,900 | 233 | 346 | 531 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 14,430 | 158 | 307 | 476 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 12,960 | 83 | 267 | 422 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 12,685 | 23 | 160 | 316 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 12,410 | -36 | 52 | 210 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 13,858 | 9 | 93 | 244 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 15,306 | 55 | 134 | 278 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 15,924 | 84 | 119 | 340 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 16,542 | 113 | 104 | 403 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 16,115 | 309 | N/A | 457 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 15,689 | 505 | N/A | 511 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 16,042 | 542 | N/A | 399 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 16,395 | 580 | N/A | 287 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 13,905 | 290 | N/A | 162 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 14,139 | 1,219 | N/A | 444 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 16,504 | 160 | N/A | 701 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: VEA is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.6%).
Earnings vs Market: VEA is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.
High Growth Earnings: VEA is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: VEA's revenue (3.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Australian market (6.2% per year).
High Growth Revenue: VEA's revenue (3.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: VEA's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (21.9%)
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/07 22:22 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/05 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Viva Energy Group Limited is covered by 17 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Dale Koenders | Barrenjoey Markets Pty Limited |
| David Errington | BofA Global Research |
| Adrian Prendergast | CGS International |