Mercari (4385) Stock Overview
Plans, develops, and operates Mercari marketplace applications in Japan and the United States. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 3/6 |
| Future Growth | 2/6 |
| Past Performance | 4/6 |
| Financial Health | 3/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
4385 Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Mercari, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | JP¥3,682.00 |
| 52 Week High | JP¥4,330.00 |
| 52 Week Low | JP¥2,069.00 |
| Beta | 1.03 |
| 1 Month Change | -5.30% |
| 3 Month Change | 7.69% |
| 1 Year Change | 43.63% |
| 3 Year Change | 12.26% |
| 5 Year Change | -32.44% |
| Change since IPO | -30.53% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • Jun 03
4385: Raised Revenue Guidance Will Sustain Overvaluation Risk Despite Higher Discount Rate
Analysts have raised Mercari's fair value estimate from ¥2,700 to about ¥2,812, citing updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue, profit margins, and future P/E multiples that refine their overall outlook on the stock. What's in the News Mercari revised its consolidated earnings guidance for the year ending June 30, 2026, and now expects revenue of ¥220,000 million, compared with its previous range of ¥210,000 million to ¥220,000 million.
Narrative Update • May 19
4385: Revised Guidance And User Retention Will Support Steady Cash Flows
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Mercari from about ¥3,303 to roughly ¥3,848, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E ratios. What's in the News Mercari revised its consolidated earnings guidance for the year ending June 30, 2026, and now expects revenue of ¥220,000 million compared with the prior range of ¥210,000 million to ¥220,000 million (company guidance).Analysis Article • May 19
There May Be Underlying Issues With The Quality Of Mercari's (TSE:4385) Earnings
Despite posting some strong earnings, the market for Mercari, Inc.'s ( TSE:4385 ) stock hasn't moved much. Our analysis...Analysis Article • May 14
Earnings Beat: Mercari, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models
Mercari, Inc. ( TSE:4385 ) defied analyst predictions to release its third-quarter results, which were ahead of market...Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 03
4385: Raised Revenue Guidance Will Sustain Overvaluation Risk Despite Higher Discount Rate
Analysts have raised Mercari's fair value estimate from ¥2,700 to about ¥2,812, citing updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue, profit margins, and future P/E multiples that refine their overall outlook on the stock. What's in the News Mercari revised its consolidated earnings guidance for the year ending June 30, 2026, and now expects revenue of ¥220,000 million, compared with its previous range of ¥210,000 million to ¥220,000 million.Narrative Update • May 19
4385: Revised Guidance And User Retention Will Support Steady Cash Flows
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Mercari from about ¥3,303 to roughly ¥3,848, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E ratios. What's in the News Mercari revised its consolidated earnings guidance for the year ending June 30, 2026, and now expects revenue of ¥220,000 million compared with the prior range of ¥210,000 million to ¥220,000 million (company guidance).Analysis Article • May 19
There May Be Underlying Issues With The Quality Of Mercari's (TSE:4385) Earnings
Despite posting some strong earnings, the market for Mercari, Inc.'s ( TSE:4385 ) stock hasn't moved much. Our analysis...Analysis Article • May 14
Earnings Beat: Mercari, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models
Mercari, Inc. ( TSE:4385 ) defied analyst predictions to release its third-quarter results, which were ahead of market...Narrative Update • May 03
4385: Raised Guidance Will Sustain Overvaluation Risk Despite Stable Profitability Assumptions
Analysts have reaffirmed Mercari's price target at ¥2,700, citing updated assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E that are broadly consistent with prior views. What's in the News Mercari raised consolidated revenue guidance for the year ending June 30, 2026 to ¥210,000 million to ¥220,000 million, compared with the previous range of ¥200,000 million to ¥210,000 million (company guidance).Narrative Update • Apr 18
4385: Raised Guidance And Higher P/E Assumptions Will Sustain Overvaluation Risk
Analysts have lifted their price target on Mercari from ¥2,500 to ¥2,700, citing adjustments to the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin assumptions, and a higher future P/E multiple in their updated models. What's in the News Mercari revised its consolidated earnings guidance for the year ending June 30, 2026, providing updated revenue and core operating profit ranges.Analysis Article • Apr 07
At JP¥3,930, Is Mercari, Inc. (TSE:4385) Worth Looking At Closely?
Mercari, Inc. ( TSE:4385 ), is not the largest company out there, but it led the TSE gainers with a relatively large...Narrative Update • Apr 04
4385: Raised Guidance And Rich Margin Assumptions Will Sustain Overvaluation Risk
Analysts have kept Mercari's price target at ¥2,500.00. They point to slightly different assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E that still support the same overall valuation view.Narrative Update • Mar 21
4385: Rich Profit Assumptions And Lower Future P/E Will Sustain Overvaluation Risk
Mercari's analyst price target is held at ¥2,500, as analysts balance a slightly higher discount rate with updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margin, and a lower future P/E multiple. What's in the News Mercari raised its consolidated revenue guidance for the year ending June 30, 2026 to a range of ¥210,000 million to ¥220,000 million, compared with the previous range of ¥200,000 million to ¥210,000 million (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Mar 06
4385: Earnings Guidance Updates Will Gradually Support Stable Cash Flows And Margins
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Mercari to ¥3,303 from ¥3,288, reflecting slightly adjusted views on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions. What's in the News Mercari revised its consolidated earnings guidance for the year ending June 30, 2026, updating both its revenue and core operating profit ranges.Narrative Update • Feb 20
4385: Future Cash Flows And Margins Will Gradually Stabilize With Modest Risk Reduction
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Mercari from about ¥3,097 to roughly ¥3,288, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E that slightly adjust the discount rate used in their models. What's in the News Mercari revised its consolidated earnings guidance for the year ending June 30, 2026, providing updated ranges for revenue and core operating profit.Analysis Article • Feb 11
Mercari, Inc. (TSE:4385) Just Reported And Analysts Have Been Lifting Their Price Targets
Shareholders of Mercari, Inc. ( TSE:4385 ) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 12% to JP¥3,567...Narrative Update • Feb 06
4385: Future Cash Flows And Margins Will Gradually Stabilize With Modest Risk Reduction
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Mercari higher from ¥2,938 to ¥3,097 as they factor in slightly lower discount rates, moderately stronger revenue growth assumptions, a firmer profit margin outlook, and a small adjustment to future P/E expectations. Valuation Changes Fair Value Estimate was raised from ¥2,938 to ¥3,097, reflecting a modest upward adjustment to the intrinsic value per share.Analysis Article • Feb 01
Here's Why We Think Mercari (TSE:4385) Is Well Worth Watching
The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even...Narrative Update • Jan 23
4385: Lower Forward P/E And Rich Profit Assumptions Will Sustain Overvaluation Risk
Analysts have modestly adjusted their price target setup for Mercari, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue growth of 5.02%, a profit margin of 11.90% and a future P/E of 19.03x, while keeping fair value at ¥2,500. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Unchanged at ¥2,500, indicating the updated assumptions did not alter the overall valuation anchor.Narrative Update • Jan 08
4385: Higher Future P/E Will Eventually Expose Overvaluation Risk
Analysts have increased their fair value estimate for Mercari to ¥2,500 from ¥1,984, citing updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple. Valuation Changes Fair Value Estimate was raised from ¥1,984 to ¥2,500, reflecting the updated model assumptions.Analysis Article • Dec 23
Investors Will Want Mercari's (TSE:4385) Growth In ROCE To Persist
If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an...Narrative Update • Dec 18
4385: Future Cash Flows And Margins Will Gradually Stabilize With Modest Risk Reduction
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Mercari from ¥2,773.85 to ¥2,938.33, citing slightly lower perceived risk, firmer expectations for mid single digit revenue growth, a gradual improvement in profit margins, and a marginally higher future earnings multiple. Valuation Changes The fair value estimate has risen slightly from ¥2,773.85 to ¥2,938.33, reflecting a modestly higher intrinsic valuation.Narrative Update • Dec 04
4385: Future Cash Flows And Margins Are Expected To Gradually Stabilize
Analysts modestly raised their price target on Mercari, with fair value estimates increasing from approximately ¥2,713 to ¥2,774, as they refine discount rate and valuation assumptions despite slightly softer long term growth and margin expectations. Analyst Commentary Analyst views on Mercari remain generally constructive, with the modest price target increase reflecting confidence in the platform’s ability to sustain cash flow generation while navigating a more normalized growth environment.Analysis Article • Nov 27
Is It Time To Consider Buying Mercari, Inc. (TSE:4385)?
Mercari, Inc. ( TSE:4385 ), is not the largest company out there, but it led the TSE gainers with a relatively large...Analysis Article • Nov 13
Mercari, Inc.'s (TSE:4385) 26% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Earnings
Mercari, Inc. ( TSE:4385 ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a...Analysis Article • Nov 11
Mercari, Inc. Just Recorded A 10% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next
Mercari, Inc. ( TSE:4385 ) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. It was overall a...Analysis Article • Nov 02
Do Mercari's (TSE:4385) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?
It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story...Analysis Article • Oct 04
Impressive Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Mercari (TSE:4385)
Mercari, Inc. ( TSE:4385 ) announced strong profits, but the stock was stagnant. Our analysis suggests that this might...Narrative Update • Sep 13
Advanced AI And International Expansion Will Drive Future Success
Mercari's consensus price target saw a slight decrease to ¥2713, as modestly improved revenue growth forecasts were offset by an essentially unchanged net profit margin. What's in the News Mercari provided consolidated earnings guidance for the year ending June 30, 2026, expecting revenue of JPY 200,000 million to JPY 210,000 million and core operating profit of JPY 28,000 million to JPY 32,000 million.Analysis Article • Aug 08
Mercari, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 46%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Last week, you might have seen that Mercari, Inc. ( TSE:4385 ) released its yearly result to the market. The early...Analysis Article • Aug 06
Here's Why Mercari (TSE:4385) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
TSE:4385 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Mercari's Fair Values from the Community and select yours Warren...Analysis Article • Jul 21
The Price Is Right For Mercari, Inc. (TSE:4385)
When close to half the companies in Japan have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 13x, you may consider...Analysis Article • Jul 07
Is There An Opportunity With Mercari, Inc.'s (TSE:4385) 33% Undervaluation?
Key Insights Mercari's estimated fair value is JP¥3,842 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share price...Analysis Article • May 10
Mercari, Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year
Investors in Mercari, Inc. ( TSE:4385 ) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.3% to close at JP¥2,386 following the...Analysis Article • Apr 30
Here's Why Mercari (TSE:4385) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...Analysis Article • Apr 16
Is There Now An Opportunity In Mercari, Inc. (TSE:4385)?
While Mercari, Inc. ( TSE:4385 ) might not have the largest market cap around , it led the TSE gainers with a...Analysis Article • Apr 03
Mercari, Inc. (TSE:4385) Shares Could Be 30% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
Key Insights Mercari's estimated fair value is JP¥3,289 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Mercari's JP¥2,305...Analysis Article • Mar 07
There's Been No Shortage Of Growth Recently For Mercari's (TSE:4385) Returns On Capital
To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? Amongst other things...Analysis Article • Feb 21
Concerns Surrounding Mercari's (TSE:4385) Performance
The market for Mercari, Inc.'s ( TSE:4385 ) stock was strong after it released a healthy earnings report last week...
New Narrative • Feb 09
Transitioning Hallo To Paid Service Will Generate New Revenue Streams
Enhancing user experience and implementing user safety measures may boost engagement, trust, and retention, positively impacting revenue and margins.Analysis Article • Feb 09
Mercari, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
Mercari, Inc. ( TSE:4385 ) defied analyst predictions to release its interim results, which were ahead of market...Analysis Article • Feb 07
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Mercari, Inc.'s (TSE:4385) 36% Share Price Surge
Mercari, Inc. ( TSE:4385 ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a...Analysis Article • Jan 07
Here's Why Mercari (TSE:4385) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company...Analysis Article • Dec 24
An Intrinsic Calculation For Mercari, Inc. (TSE:4385) Suggests It's 39% Undervalued
Key Insights The projected fair value for Mercari is JP¥2,938 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Mercari's...Analysis Article • Nov 08
Why We're Not Concerned Yet About Mercari, Inc.'s (TSE:4385) 27% Share Price Plunge
Mercari, Inc. ( TSE:4385 ) shares have had a horrible month, losing 27% after a relatively good period beforehand...Analysis Article • Oct 24
Mercari (TSE:4385) Shareholders Will Want The ROCE Trajectory To Continue
What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? One common...Analysis Article • Aug 20
Mercari (TSE:4385) Strong Profits May Be Masking Some Underlying Issues
Mercari, Inc.'s ( TSE:4385 ) healthy profit numbers didn't contain any surprises for investors. We think this is due to...Analysis Article • Aug 16
Mercari, Inc. Just Recorded A 16% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next
As you might know, Mercari, Inc. ( TSE:4385 ) recently reported its annual numbers. It looks like a credible result...Analysis Article • Aug 06
Is There Now An Opportunity In Mercari, Inc. (TSE:4385)?
While Mercari, Inc. ( TSE:4385 ) might not have the largest market cap around , it saw significant share price movement...Analysis Article • Jul 23
Mercari, Inc.'s (TSE:4385) P/E Is On The Mark
Mercari, Inc.'s ( TSE:4385 ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 22.1x might make it look like a strong sell right...Analysis Article • Apr 16
Is Mercari (TSE:4385) A Risky Investment?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...Analysis Article • Feb 26
Mercari's (TSE:4385) Returns On Capital Are Heading Higher
There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Typically, we'll want to notice a...Shareholder Returns
| 4385 | JP Multiline Retail | JP Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -8.2% | -2.2% | -1.0% |
| 1Y | 43.6% | 10.1% | 39.9% |
Return vs Industry: 4385 exceeded the JP Multiline Retail industry which returned 10.1% over the past year.
Return vs Market: 4385 exceeded the JP Market which returned 39.9% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| 4385 volatility | |
|---|---|
| 4385 Average Weekly Movement | 6.6% |
| Multiline Retail Industry Average Movement | 4.4% |
| Market Average Movement | 4.7% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in JP Market | 9.3% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in JP Market | 2.4% |
Stable Share Price: 4385 has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the JP market.
Volatility Over Time: 4385's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 2,159 | Shintaro Yamada | www.mercari.com |
Mercari, Inc. plans, develops, and operates Mercari marketplace applications in Japan and the United States. The company also engages in the payment, finance, and cryptoasset related businesses. Mercari, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.
Mercari, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| 4385 fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | JP¥607.57b |
| Earnings (TTM) | JP¥33.81b |
| Revenue (TTM) | JP¥215.86b |
18.0x
P/E Ratio2.8x
P/S RatioIs 4385 overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| 4385 income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | JP¥215.86b |
| Cost of Revenue | JP¥57.41b |
| Gross Profit | JP¥158.44b |
| Other Expenses | JP¥124.63b |
| Earnings | JP¥33.81b |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
Aug 05, 2026
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 204.69 |
| Gross Margin | 73.40% |
| Net Profit Margin | 15.66% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 204.1% |
How did 4385 perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/10 15:34 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/10 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/06/30 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Mercari, Inc. is covered by 21 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Yoshitaka Nagao | BofA Global Research |
| Junko Yamamura | Citigroup Inc |
| Keiichi Yoneshima | Citigroup Inc |