Mercari, Inc.

TSE:4385 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥335.6b

Mercari Valuation

Is 4385 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4385 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4385 (¥2068) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥4179.76)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4385 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4385?

Key metric: As 4385 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4385. This is calculated by dividing 4385's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4385's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio25x
EarningsJP¥13.58b
Market CapJP¥335.60b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4385's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4385 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.3x
3086 J. Front Retailing
9.5x-6.4%JP¥438.4b
2782 Seria
19.1x6.9%JP¥208.3b
2678 ASKUL
9.5x-3.7%JP¥178.8b
7453 Ryohin Keikaku
19.1x3.8%JP¥800.2b
4385 Mercari
25x16.5%JP¥335.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4385 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25x) compared to the peer average (14.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4385's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Multiline Retail Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
4385 25.0xIndustry Avg. 13.9xNo. of Companies5PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4385 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25x) compared to the JP Multiline Retail industry average (13.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4385's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4385 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio25x
Fair PE Ratio21.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4385 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4385 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥2,068.00
JP¥2,725.42
+31.8%
23.3%JP¥4,100.00JP¥1,800.00n/a12
Nov ’25JP¥2,105.00
JP¥2,862.08
+36.0%
20.9%JP¥4,100.00JP¥1,900.00n/a12
Oct ’25JP¥2,494.00
JP¥2,862.08
+14.8%
20.9%JP¥4,100.00JP¥1,900.00n/a12
Sep ’25JP¥2,373.50
JP¥2,868.75
+20.9%
23.6%JP¥4,100.00JP¥1,900.00n/a12
Aug ’25JP¥2,163.50
JP¥2,900.42
+34.1%
22.5%JP¥4,100.00JP¥1,900.00n/a12
Jul ’25JP¥2,103.00
JP¥2,915.00
+38.6%
24.1%JP¥4,100.00JP¥1,900.00n/a12
Jun ’25JP¥1,833.00
JP¥3,090.77
+68.6%
23.8%JP¥4,100.00JP¥1,900.00n/a13
May ’25JP¥1,806.50
JP¥3,065.38
+69.7%
23.9%JP¥4,100.00JP¥1,900.00n/a13
Apr ’25JP¥1,915.00
JP¥3,065.38
+60.1%
23.9%JP¥4,100.00JP¥1,900.00n/a13
Mar ’25JP¥2,114.00
JP¥3,357.69
+58.8%
19.1%JP¥4,100.00JP¥1,900.00n/a13
Feb ’25JP¥2,366.50
JP¥3,546.15
+49.8%
16.6%JP¥4,100.00JP¥1,900.00n/a13
Jan ’25JP¥2,612.50
JP¥3,683.33
+41.0%
9.8%JP¥4,100.00JP¥2,900.00n/a12
Dec ’24JP¥2,807.50
JP¥3,792.73
+35.1%
6.9%JP¥4,100.00JP¥3,400.00n/a11
Nov ’24JP¥2,997.00
JP¥3,626.67
+21.0%
15.6%JP¥4,100.00JP¥1,900.00JP¥2,105.0012
Oct ’24JP¥3,226.00
JP¥3,622.00
+12.3%
17.5%JP¥4,300.00JP¥1,900.00JP¥2,494.0010
Sep ’24JP¥3,217.00
JP¥3,679.00
+14.4%
17.2%JP¥4,300.00JP¥1,900.00JP¥2,373.5010
Aug ’24JP¥3,600.00
JP¥3,541.11
-1.6%
21.9%JP¥4,300.00JP¥1,900.00JP¥2,163.509
Jul ’24JP¥3,359.00
JP¥3,407.78
+1.5%
21.6%JP¥4,300.00JP¥1,900.00JP¥2,103.009
Jun ’24JP¥2,915.00
JP¥3,263.33
+11.9%
28.5%JP¥5,200.00JP¥1,900.00JP¥1,833.009
May ’24JP¥2,683.00
JP¥3,263.33
+21.6%
28.5%JP¥5,200.00JP¥1,900.00JP¥1,806.509
Apr ’24JP¥2,309.00
JP¥3,207.78
+38.9%
29.4%JP¥5,200.00JP¥1,700.00JP¥1,915.009
Mar ’24JP¥2,405.00
JP¥3,570.00
+48.4%
36.3%JP¥6,000.00JP¥1,700.00JP¥2,114.0010
Feb ’24JP¥2,909.00
JP¥3,397.27
+16.8%
39.8%JP¥6,000.00JP¥1,670.00JP¥2,366.5011
Jan ’24JP¥2,699.00
JP¥3,324.55
+23.2%
38.7%JP¥6,000.00JP¥1,670.00JP¥2,612.5011
Dec ’23JP¥2,979.00
JP¥3,251.82
+9.2%
40.9%JP¥6,000.00JP¥1,670.00JP¥2,807.5011
Nov ’23JP¥2,895.00
JP¥3,160.91
+9.2%
42.1%JP¥6,000.00JP¥1,670.00JP¥2,997.0011

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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