Mercari, Inc.

TSE:4385 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥632.4b

Mercari Valuation

Is 4385 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4385 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: 4385 (¥3886) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (¥36678.92)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: 4385 is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4385?

Key metric: As 4385 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4385. This is calculated by dividing 4385's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4385's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.9x
EarningsJP¥35.40b
Market CapJP¥632.43b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4385's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4385 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.9x
3086 J. Front Retailing
23.2x6.85%JP¥637.0b
3099 Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings
13.8x-3.43%JP¥1.1t
2782 Seria
18.7x1.07%JP¥292.0b
8273 Izumi
12.1x6.76%JP¥206.5b
4385 Mercari
18.1x9.82%JP¥632.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4385 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.1x) compared to the peer average (16.9x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4385's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Multiline Retail Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
8165 Senshukai
0.8xn/aUS$30.97m
No more companies available in this PE range
4385 17.9xIndustry Avg. 14.3xNo. of Companies4PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4385 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.1x) compared to the JP Multiline Retail industry average (14.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4385's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4385 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.9x
Fair PE Ratio20.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4385 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4385 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥3,886.00
JP¥5,009.23
+28.90%
7.34%JP¥5,800.00JP¥4,400.00n/a13
Sep ’27JP¥4,619.00
JP¥4,876.15
+5.57%
11.89%JP¥5,800.00JP¥3,400.00n/a13
Aug ’27JP¥4,290.00
JP¥4,415.38
+2.92%
12.11%JP¥5,500.00JP¥3,400.00n/a13
Jul ’27JP¥3,929.00
JP¥4,369.23
+11.20%
12.81%JP¥5,500.00JP¥3,400.00n/a13
Jun ’27JP¥4,160.00
JP¥3,848.46
-7.49%
13.80%JP¥4,500.00JP¥2,700.00n/a13
May ’27JP¥3,855.00
JP¥3,649.23
-5.34%
14.02%JP¥4,500.00JP¥2,700.00n/a13
Apr ’27JP¥3,891.00
JP¥3,495.38
-10.17%
15.25%JP¥4,400.00JP¥2,500.00n/a13
Mar ’27JP¥3,675.00
JP¥3,287.69
-10.54%
14.41%JP¥4,400.00JP¥2,500.00n/a13
Feb ’27JP¥3,428.00
JP¥3,096.92
-9.66%
10.21%JP¥3,500.00JP¥2,500.00n/a13
Jan ’27JP¥3,170.00
JP¥2,938.33
-7.31%
12.87%JP¥3,500.00JP¥2,400.00n/a12
Dec ’26JP¥2,606.00
JP¥2,750.77
+5.56%
16.83%JP¥3,500.00JP¥1,800.00n/a13
Nov ’26JP¥2,281.50
JP¥2,689.23
+17.87%
14.50%JP¥3,500.00JP¥1,800.00n/a13
Oct ’26JP¥2,184.00
JP¥2,727.69
+24.89%
13.94%JP¥3,500.00JP¥1,800.00n/a13
Sep ’26JP¥2,535.00
JP¥2,789.23
+10.03%
13.94%JP¥3,500.00JP¥1,800.00JP¥4,619.0013
Aug ’26JP¥2,352.50
JP¥2,795.38
+18.83%
14.56%JP¥3,500.00JP¥1,800.00JP¥4,290.0013
Jul ’26JP¥2,622.50
JP¥2,699.23
+2.93%
15.44%JP¥3,500.00JP¥1,800.00JP¥3,929.0013
Jun ’26JP¥2,392.50
JP¥2,534.62
+5.94%
16.44%JP¥3,500.00JP¥1,800.00JP¥4,160.0013
May ’26JP¥2,303.50
JP¥2,506.92
+8.83%
16.63%JP¥3,500.00JP¥1,800.00JP¥3,855.0013
Apr ’26JP¥2,326.50
JP¥2,582.50
+11.00%
19.89%JP¥3,500.00JP¥1,800.00JP¥3,891.0012
Mar ’26JP¥2,339.00
JP¥2,411.67
+3.11%
22.02%JP¥3,500.00JP¥1,800.00JP¥3,675.0012
Feb ’26JP¥1,888.50
JP¥2,280.00
+20.73%
19.13%JP¥3,500.00JP¥1,800.00JP¥3,428.0011
Jan ’26JP¥1,793.00
JP¥2,500.45
+39.46%
26.50%JP¥4,100.00JP¥1,800.00JP¥3,170.0011
Dec ’25JP¥1,947.50
JP¥2,725.42
+39.94%
23.33%JP¥4,100.00JP¥1,800.00JP¥2,606.0012
Nov ’25JP¥2,105.00
JP¥2,862.08
+35.97%
20.89%JP¥4,100.00JP¥1,900.00JP¥2,281.5012
Oct ’25JP¥2,494.00
JP¥2,862.08
+14.76%
20.89%JP¥4,100.00JP¥1,900.00JP¥2,184.0012
Sep ’25JP¥2,373.50
JP¥2,868.75
+20.87%
23.56%JP¥4,100.00JP¥1,900.00JP¥2,535.0012
JP¥5.01k
Fair Value
22.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/09/14 07:41
End of Day Share Price 2026/09/11 00:00
Earnings2026/06/30
Annual Earnings2026/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Mercari, Inc. is covered by 17 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Yoshitaka NagaoBofA Global Research
Keiichi YoneshimaCitigroup Inc
Shingo KumazawaDaiwa Securities Co. Ltd.