Mercari, Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year

Investors in Mercari, Inc. (TSE:4385) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.3% to close at JP¥2,386 following the release of its third-quarter results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of JP¥50b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Mercari surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥24.51 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Our free stock report includes 2 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Mercari. Read for free now.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Mercari from 14 analysts is for revenues of JP¥210.9b in 2026. If met, it would imply a solid 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 28% to JP¥128. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥211.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥127 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Mercari

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥2,507, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Mercari, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥3,500 and the most bearish at JP¥1,800 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Mercari's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 18% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.7% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Mercari is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,507, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Mercari going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Mercari (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.