Fresnillo plc

LSE:FRES Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£4.7b

Fresnillo Valuation

Is FRES undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FRES when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FRES (£6.38) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£7.41)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FRES is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FRES?

Key metric: As FRES is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for FRES. This is calculated by dividing FRES's market cap by their current earnings.
What is FRES's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio24.1x
EarningsUS$247.83m
Market CapUS$5.96b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FRES's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FRES vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.4x
JLP Jubilee Metals Group
30.8x84.0%UK£144.5m
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel
0.8xn/aUS$4.1b
SLP Sylvania Platinum
20.5x43.0%UK£113.1m
CRDA Croda International
29.5x15.2%UK£4.8b
FRES Fresnillo
24.1x33.0%UK£4.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FRES is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.1x) compared to the peer average (27x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FRES's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Metals and Mining Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel
0.8xn/aUS$4.08b
EVR EVRAZ
0.4xn/aUS$1.42b
MTL Metals Exploration
0.9x-60.3%US$126.08m
TGR Tirupati Graphite
1.2xn/aUS$10.50m
No more companies available in this PE range
FRES 24.1xIndustry Avg. 9.4xNo. of Companies6PE0816243240+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FRES is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.1x) compared to the UK Metals and Mining industry average (9.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FRES's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FRES PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio24.1x
Fair PE Ratio27.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FRES is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FRES forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£6.38
UK£8.26
+29.5%
13.2%UK£11.24UK£6.56n/a13
Nov ’25UK£7.36
UK£7.86
+6.9%
15.7%UK£11.32UK£6.41n/a13
Oct ’25UK£6.22
UK£7.10
+14.1%
17.1%UK£10.62UK£6.03n/a13
Sep ’25UK£5.42
UK£7.08
+30.7%
17.8%UK£10.83UK£6.02n/a13
Aug ’25UK£5.92
UK£7.29
+23.2%
18.7%UK£11.07UK£6.11n/a12
Jul ’25UK£5.63
UK£7.04
+25.2%
21.8%UK£11.16UK£5.60n/a12
Jun ’25UK£6.20
UK£6.96
+12.4%
22.2%UK£11.11UK£5.39n/a12
May ’25UK£5.63
UK£6.61
+17.5%
24.2%UK£11.29UK£4.88n/a12
Apr ’25UK£4.70
UK£5.93
+26.1%
32.0%UK£11.46UK£3.84n/a12
Mar ’25UK£4.64
UK£6.13
+32.3%
29.8%UK£10.92UK£3.82n/a12
Feb ’25UK£5.22
UK£6.28
+20.4%
29.9%UK£10.88UK£3.81n/a12
Jan ’25UK£5.94
UK£6.67
+12.2%
25.4%UK£10.90UK£3.66n/a12
Dec ’24UK£5.93
UK£6.65
+12.1%
25.9%UK£11.00UK£3.69n/a12
Nov ’24UK£5.44
UK£6.78
+24.5%
27.6%UK£11.33UK£3.38UK£7.3612
Oct ’24UK£5.51
UK£7.20
+30.7%
26.2%UK£11.88UK£3.46UK£6.2212
Sep ’24UK£5.69
UK£6.93
+21.7%
24.7%UK£11.45UK£3.33UK£5.4214
Aug ’24UK£5.91
UK£7.21
+22.0%
22.2%UK£11.43UK£5.27UK£5.9214
Jul ’24UK£6.10
UK£7.70
+26.2%
20.7%UK£11.85UK£5.98UK£5.6314
Jun ’24UK£6.77
UK£7.87
+16.2%
20.1%UK£12.01UK£6.06UK£6.2014
May ’24UK£7.11
UK£7.80
+9.7%
20.6%UK£11.95UK£5.88UK£5.6314
Apr ’24UK£7.46
UK£7.86
+5.4%
19.6%UK£11.68UK£5.96UK£4.7014
Mar ’24UK£7.78
UK£8.76
+12.5%
14.7%UK£11.95UK£7.18UK£4.6415
Feb ’24UK£8.10
UK£8.65
+6.8%
14.8%UK£11.83UK£7.00UK£5.2215
Jan ’24UK£9.02
UK£8.43
-6.5%
17.7%UK£11.11UK£6.21UK£5.9416
Dec ’23UK£9.03
UK£8.17
-9.5%
20.2%UK£12.80UK£6.25UK£5.9316
Nov ’23UK£7.32
UK£8.42
+14.9%
19.2%UK£12.92UK£6.57UK£5.4416

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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