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CA$5.25
FV
42.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
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€220
41.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
18.42%
Future PE
25.71x
Price in 2031
€303.99
€525
5.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
9.49% p.a.
Profit Margin
13.46%
Future PE
22.72x
Price in 2031
€788.55
US$119.99
56.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
27.15% p.a.
Profit Margin
15.17%
Future PE
8.45x
Price in 2031
US$185.59
€43
26.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
23.79% p.a.
Profit Margin
4.23%
Future PE
11.92x
Price in 2031
€65.29
€30
82.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
20%
Future PE
16x
Price in 2031
€91.55
US$18
76.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
50%
Future PE
27.09x
Price in 2030
US$24.58
US$65
30.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.