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lululemon athletica

Quantifying the Transition: Why Lululemon’s Moat Remains Intact

Lululemon is going through leadership drama and a bumpy patch in North America, but the business still throws off plenty of cash and keeps winning abroad. The market seems to be treating it like a brand in long-term decline, and the case here is that this fear may be overdone if the company executes its transition.
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US$161.8
FV
25.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
7.65%
Revenue growth p.a.
3.8k
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9users have liked this narrative
2users have commented on this narrative
24users have followed this narrative
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Microsoft

Microsoft (MSFT): The AI Bull Case Everyone Sees, Trading at a Multiple Nobody's Willing to Pay

What Microsoft Actually Does (And Why the Bear Case Misreads It) Most retail investors think of Microsoft as "the Windows and Office company that also does AI now." That framing is about eight years out of date. Microsoft today is a three-headed compounding machine — enterprise productivity software, cloud infrastructure, and, increasingly, the metering layer for the entire AI economy — and the third head is growing fast enough to change how the other two should be valued.Read more

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US$503.49
22.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
14.6% p.a.
Profit Margin
39.34%
Future PE
22.85x
Price in 2031
US$763.68
SCZ logo
Santacruz Silver Mining

Santacruz Silver, 5.6M Oz Silver Producer Trading at Low Multiples, 100X Per-Share Upside in $200 Silver

Disclaimer This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice. The views expressed are based on publicly available information, company filings, technical reports, news releases, company presentations, and personal analysis at the time of writing, and they may change without notice.Read more

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CA$142.9
93.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
88.92% p.a.
Profit Margin
20.03%
Future PE
8.31x
Price in 2031
CA$201.83
DAL logo
Delta Air Lines

Delta loses shine after warning of falling travel demand, but still industry leader

Delta stays ahead of other big US airlines by running its fleet efficiently and keeping planes fuller, even as travel demand starts to cool. The bigger question is whether a weaker economy or another sudden shock could hit flying hard enough to derail that lead.Read more

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US$63.21
36.4% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
2% p.a.
Profit Margin
8%
Future PE
10x
Price in 2029
US$86.44
MRT logo
Marti Technologies

$MRT at Roth - Pick of the Panel

A little-known ride-hailing company says Turkey’s market is still early, with room to grow as pricing and demand catch up. It also aims to turn its service into a broader “super app,” expanding from rides into delivery and other ways to get around—before bigger rivals fully focus on the country.Read more

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US$1.96
28.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
7.15%
Future PE
14.88x
Price in 2031
US$4.16
PYPL logo
PayPal Holdings

PayPal: PayPal Doesn't Need to Grow – It Needs to Stop Falling – A Mispriced Cash Machine With a Cannibal Buyback

PayPal looks like a fading payments app, but its core business may only need to stop slipping for sentiment to flip—especially while it keeps shrinking its share count and leaning on its huge user network. The big question is whether its everyday checkout and peer-to-peer use can hold up against cheaper bank transfers and a future where AI shopping tools choose the payment method for you.Read more

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US$65
26.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.