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US$5
FV
22.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
See narrative.
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US$7.31k
FV
73.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
43.51%
Revenue growth p.a.
7.8k
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US$70.89
FV
13.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
5.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
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US$1.25k
FV
22.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
19.54%
Revenue growth p.a.
2.9k
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US$41
18.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
The fine print at the bottom of the graphic reads: > **Method.** Each year's EPS is multiplied by a fixed bear, base, and bull P/E of 18.0x, 28.0x, and 35.0x. The scenario mean is the simple average of the three outcomes, which assigns equal weight to each and is not a probability-weighted expected value. Fair value of $43.20 is the FY2026E scenario mean, undiscounted. Return convention: CAGR is compounded: $(mean \div spot)^{\frac{1}{years}} - 1$. The source sheet labeled a column CAGR that in fact divided total return by the number of years, which overstates the annualized figure in every year beyond the first (FY2029E: 43.4% simple versus 28.6% compounded). EPS basis: The FY2026E–FY2029E EPS path used here differs from the earnings model in Exhibit 1; refer to the text before publication. Neither path deducts preferred dividends on the Series A and Series B convertible preferred stock. Not investment advice. No recommendation is expressed or implied. Also: The fine print at the bottom of Exhibit 1 reads: > **Basis.** FY2022A–FY2025A net revenue, cost of revenue and gross profit are per Celsius Holdings Form 10-K filings. Operating expense, operating income and net income for those years are restated to exclude non-operating items and do not tie to the filings; see model workbook. FY2026E–FY2031E: Net revenue expressed as stated growth; gross profit off stated margin; operating expense off stated growth. All sub-totals, growth rates and ratios shown here are recomputed from the table rows rather than carried forward. **Model convention.** Net income represents income before taxes and before dividends on the Series A and Series B convertible preferred stock; earnings per share is calculated on the same basis as the forecast years. Exit multiples of 18.0x, 28.0x and 35.0x are applied uniformly across all forecast years and are not derived from a discounted cash flow method; implied market capitalizations correspond directly to target prices. No price target or recommendation is expressed or implied. Then based off of my multiple models I took the average price for each year to find the CAGR and the estimated fair value.
US$8
27.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
11.73%
Future PE
22.81x
Price in 2031
US$13.67
SEK 146
84.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
13.34%
Future PE
18.98x
Price in 2031
SEK 0