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GOOG logo
Alphabet
BL
BlackGoat
BlackGoat
Community Contributor

Alphabet: The Under-appreciated Compounder Hiding in Plain Sight

Summary Google trades at ~18× forward earnings; the cheapest among the Magnificent 7 Market is too focused on AI threats to Search and antitrust noise Meanwhile, Google is executing across AI, Cloud, and YouTube Key AI differentiator: unmatched distribution across 3B+ users via Search, Gmail, YouTube, Android, Chrome, and Cloud Quietly building a world-class AI infrastructure behind the scenes; including proprietary TPUs and a vertically integrated stack YouTube generated $8.93B in Q1 ad revenue (up 10% YoY); subscriptions hit 270M Google Cloud revenue up 28% YoY to $12.3B; now profitable Optionality from long-term bets like Waymo, DeepMind, and Verily Risk/reward is compelling; a strong candidate to beat the market long term Overview Despite being part of the "Magnificent Seven," Google’s stock lags due to perceived risks around disruption of its Search business from AI competitors and mounting antitrust concerns. But under the hood, Google has quietly built one of the most compelling setups in tech: with deep AI leadership, multiple high-growth businesses, and optionality from long-term moonshots like Waymo.
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US$282.83
FV
32.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
9.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
24users have liked this narrative
3users have commented on this narrative
62users have followed this narrative
Updated narrative
XOM logo
Exxon Mobil
AG
Agricola
Agricola
Community Contributor

Exxon in Guyana 5 year forecast Low $135 to High $189

Previous mistake rectified. So as pointed out in the comments, Chevron won the Hess bid (rather than Exxon) and took a large portion of the Stabroek block.
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US$174.00
FV
37.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
12.97%
Revenue growth p.a.
4users have liked this narrative
4users have commented on this narrative
17users have followed this narrative
Updated narrative
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NVDA logo
NVIDIA
GO
Goran_Damchevski
Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst

An Oversupply Of Compute Power Will See Margins Recede

Key Takeaways NVIDIA facing challenges, 30% data center market share at risk from chiplets AMD, Samsung, Intel entering GPU manufacturing race at cheaper price points Largest customers producing own chips, limits market for NVIDIA Generative AI cloud solutions introduces revenue cannibalization risk Gaming market revenue share at risk of stagnating Catalysts Company Catalysts Accelerating GPU Performance Will Reduce Profitability There is an argument to be made that the rapidly accelerating performance of GPUs will unlock markets in the next 3 to 5 years, but the same technology can lead to oversupply of compute power in the long term. As recently as 2021, there was a shortage of compute power for use cases like cryptocurrency mining, which was promoted as a key growth avenue.
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US$67.95
FV
155.7% overvalued intrinsic discount
14.40%
Revenue growth p.a.
80users have liked this narrative
16users have commented on this narrative
49users have followed this narrative
8 months ago author updated this narrative
AMD logo
Advanced Micro Devices
RI
Richard_Bowman
Richard_Bowman
Equity Analyst and Writer

Intense Competition Will Force AMD to Sacrifice Margins In Favor of R&D Spend

Key Takeaways Revenue growth will improve and then slow due to cyclical nature of chip demand There will be an inevitable plateau in AI investment Competition between CPU and GPU producers will intensify due massive long term potential This will result in very high R&D spend by all three, particularly AMD AMD’s revenue growth accelerates then falls into single digits by 2028 Catalysts Industry Catalysts CPU Demand Will Accelerate in 2024 and 2025, but Decelerate Again by 2028 CPU sales for the client segment is likely to accelerate rapidly as inventories have fallen and a new replacement cycle is overdue. Within the datacenter segment growth will be more measured.
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US$103.16
FV
66.4% overvalued intrinsic discount
16.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
33users have liked this narrative
2users have commented on this narrative
16users have followed this narrative
10 months ago author updated this narrative
AAPL logo
Apple
BA
Bailey
Bailey
Equity Analyst

EU Regulations And Poor Emerging Market Strategy Will Erode Margins And Limit Sales Growth

Key Takeaways Over-reliance on new market penetration could prove to be unfruitful, while the world continues to grapple with cost-of-living pressures. Poor emerging market strategy could lead to failure in India and South America due to prohibitive costs.
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US$207.71
FV
2.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
6.39%
Revenue growth p.a.
74users have liked this narrative
18users have commented on this narrative
36users have followed this narrative
9 months ago author updated this narrative
SBUX logo
Starbucks
GO
Goran_Damchevski
Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst

International Store Growth To Sustain Revenue Growth Despite Labour Headwinds

Key Takeaways Store growth plans to increase by 74% internationally, but only 12% in the US. Coffee demand is expected to be a tailwind for revenues longer term, growing at a stable 4.2%.
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US$86.27
FV
0.7% overvalued intrinsic discount
5.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
20users have liked this narrative
4users have commented on this narrative
9users have followed this narrative
9 months ago author updated this narrative
GOOGL logo
Alphabet
GO
Goran_Damchevski
Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst

A Fracturing Search Market and Lack of Monetization Will Slow Revenue Growth

Key Takeaways Alphabet has challenges in its search business unaccounted for by investors Alphabet’s best bet is to focus on the Cloud, but it’s an uphill battle AI will contribute to revenue growth, but profitability may come later Cloud and AI industries to grow, but analysts may have extrapolated too much Catalysts Company Catalysts AI Moat Lies In Proprietary Data Not Models A leaked Google internal memo outlines some controversial thinking inside the company. The anonymous employee argues that smaller peers are rapidly producing Large Language Models (LLM) models that can yield comparable results to Bard and GPT-4, with the added benefit of being cheaper to produce.
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US$216.56
FV
12.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
10.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
52users have liked this narrative
13users have commented on this narrative
37users have followed this narrative
9 months ago author updated this narrative
ENPH logo
Enphase Energy
GO
Goran_Damchevski
Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst

Market Leadership Amidst Increasing Competition Won't Hurt Solid Revenue Growth

Key Takeaways Electricity prices, incentives (tax credits, net metering) and technology advancements will drive sales. Microinverters are gaining traction but their advantage over traditional inverters is unclear.
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US$76.86
FV
59.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
24.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
5users have liked this narrative
2users have commented on this narrative
11users have followed this narrative
9 months ago author updated this narrative
V logo
Visa
GO
Goran_Damchevski
Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst

Regulation and Market Maturity Will Limit Earnings Growth Potential

Key Takeaways Well-positioned to benefit from the continued growth of digital payments and the international market Investing heavily in B2B and cross border payments for new revenue growth Has a wide moat, and a large serviceable market, but investor expectations are already high Additionally the Credit Card Competition Act could be a major negative catalyst Risks to my narrative include stronger than expected US consumer, and increased use of Visa network from future Fintech. Catalysts The Benefits of Visa’s Global Reach Visa processes more than $11.6 trillion in gross dollar volume (GDV), made up primarily of digital payments with the remainder being things like ATM withdrawals, B2B transactions, etc.
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US$243.09
FV
39.6% overvalued intrinsic discount
9.10%
Revenue growth p.a.
7users have liked this narrative
1users have commented on this narrative
15users have followed this narrative
9 months ago author updated this narrative
F logo
Ford Motor
BA
Bailey
Bailey
Equity Analyst

Rising Labor Costs, Tight Competition And Stricter Credit Conditions Put Pressure On EBIT

Key Takeaways Ford’s failure to launch a meaningful EV campaign will see them lose out in Europe and Asia. Increase labor costs following Union strikes will put pressure on Automotive EBIT margins Strict credit conditions over the next few years will hurt Ford’s sales volumes and financing margins Catalysts Rising Competition In EV Market Will Limit Sales Growth Trajectory Ford was one of the many manufacturers that have had to realign their focus with climate action in mind.
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US$9.70
FV
11.5% overvalued intrinsic discount
3.50%
Revenue growth p.a.
6users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
9users have followed this narrative
9 months ago author updated this narrative
BAC logo
Bank of America
RI
Richard_Bowman
Richard_Bowman
Equity Analyst and Writer

Underwater Bond Holdings Will Squeeze its Net Interest Margin

Key Takeaways Banks are being forced to offer higher rates to keep deposits. Lending will remain slow, which will squeeze net interest margins.
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US$44.16
FV
3.4% overvalued intrinsic discount
2.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
5users have liked this narrative
1users have commented on this narrative
14users have followed this narrative
9 months ago author updated this narrative