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An Oversupply Of Compute Power Will See Margins Recede
Key Takeaways NVIDIA facing challenges, 30% data center market share at risk from chiplets AMD, Samsung, Intel entering GPU manufacturing race at cheaper price points Largest customers producing own chips, limits market for NVIDIA Generative AI cloud solutions introduces revenue cannibalization risk Gaming market revenue share at risk of stagnating Catalysts Company Catalysts Accelerating GPU Performance Will Reduce Profitability There is an argument to be made that the rapidly accelerating performance of GPUs will unlock markets in the next 3 to 5 years, but the same technology can lead to oversupply of compute power in the long term. As recently as 2021, there was a shortage of compute power for use cases like cryptocurrency mining, which was promoted as a key growth avenue.Read more
Political Status Quo Will Result in Stable Growth
Key Takeaways A geopolitical status quo means TSMC can remain the market leader It has a healthy balance sheet to invest in R&D and maintain its wide moat Growing industry and large repeat customers will drive double-digit revenue growth The stock has the potential to become a dividend aristocrat Catalysts Industry Catalysts Continuous Demand and Reliance on Chips Will Support Revenue The computing power accessed through microchips is only increasing. It goes beyond smart devices and data centers, and in the 2020s, it is a vital part of the global economy.Read more
External Factors Could Keep BHP Pinned In Place
Key Takeaways A large exposure to the iron-ore market with a muted medium-term outlook leaves BHP vulnerable. The company's second-largest segment (copper) can provide growth but is at risk of prolonged higher capex.Read more
Gold Miner with bunch of assets + 10 baggers
GoldMining Inc. Valuation if Gold Reaches $4,000/oz Key Inputs: Gold Resources: 18M oz Gold Price: $4,000/oz Valuation per oz: $100–$200/oz (industry average for gold in the ground) Other Assets: Equity Stakes: $140M (Gold Royalty + US Gold Mining) Cash: $160M Shares Outstanding: 100M (approx.) Step 1: Valuation of Gold Resources Conservative: 18M oz x $100/oz = $1.8B Optimistic: 18M oz x $200/oz = $3.6B Step 2: Add Other Assets Total Other Assets = $140M (equity stakes) + $160M (cash) = $300M Step 3: Total Valuation Conservative: $1.8B (gold) + $300M (assets) = $2.1B Optimistic: $3.6B (gold) + $300M (assets) = $3.9B Step 4: Stock Price Estimate Conservative: $2.1B / 100M shares = $21/share Optimistic: $3.9B / 100M shares = $39/share Conclusion: At $4,000 gold, GoldMining Inc.’s stock price could range from $21 to $39/share depending on market valuation of their resources and assets.Read more
$100/oz Silver, Great Risks to Rewards
Sun Silver: Valuation at $100/oz Silver Key Project: Maverick Springs (Nevada) Resource: Silver: 175M oz at 45 gpt. Silver Equivalent (AgEq): 290M oz at 70 gpt (includes gold).Read more
The Berkshire Success Recipe: Concentrated Portfolio With Diversified Operations
Berkshire has managed to find a balance between a diversified business and an alpha-rich portfolio. The company’s efficiency is reflected in its low risk, which also limits growth.Read more
If gold price $4,000, silver $100
--- Coeur Mining: Stock Price Estimate at $4,000 Gold and $100 Silver --- Step 1: Revenue Estimation 1. Production Estimates for 2024: Silver: 12M oz.Read more
Billionaire's Frank Guistra & when gold reaches $4,000/oz
To estimate Aris Mining's stock price if gold reaches $4,000 per oz, we’ll need to make a few assumptions based on current production, future expansions, and valuation. ### Key Assumptions: 1.Read more
At $4,000/oz gold
--- Rox Resources: Stock Price Estimate at $4,000/oz Gold --- Project Details and Financials 1. Youanmi Project: Total Resource: 2.3M oz gold.Read more
