Billionaire's Frank Guistra & when gold reaches $4,000/oz

To estimate Aris Mining's stock price if gold reaches $4,000 per oz, we’ll need to make a few assumptions based on current production, future expansions, and valuation.

### Key Assumptions:

1. Current production (2024): ~235,000 oz.

2. Future production (2026/2027 target): ~700,000 oz.

3. Current AISC: $1,450 per oz (with expectations to decrease after expansions).

4. Projected AISC after expansions: $1,000 per oz.

5. Gold price: $4,000 per oz.

We will assume Aris's profit margin increases due to a higher gold price and lower AISC after expansion. We'll estimate based on a multiple of Free Cash Flow (FCF) and how much of that translates into market cap and stock price.

### Step-by-Step Calculation:

1. Revenue at $4,000 gold:

- 700,000 oz * $4,000/oz = $2.8 billion in annual revenue.

2. Cost of production:

- 700,000 oz * $1,000/oz AISC = $700 million in total costs.

3. Pre-tax Profit (EBITDA equivalent):

- $2.8 billion - $700 million = $2.1 billion in pre-tax profit.

4. Estimation of Free Cash Flow (FCF):

- Assuming around 70% of pre-tax profit converts to FCF:

- $2.1 billion * 0.7 = $1.47 billion in annual free cash flow.

5. Valuation multiple:

- A typical mining company might trade at a 5-10x FCF multiple, depending on market conditions and risks. For simplicity, let’s use an 8x multiple for a bullish scenario at $4,000 gold:

- $1.47 billion * 8 = $11.76 billion market cap.

6. Current market cap:

- Aris Mining's current market cap is around $940 million.

7. Stock price calculation:

- If the company reaches an $11.76 billion market cap, the stock price would increase proportionally. Assuming no major share dilution between now and 2026, we can estimate the stock price as follows:

- $11.76 billion / $940 million ≈ 12.5x current stock price.

If Aris Mining's stock price is, for example, $5 today:

- $5 * 12.5 = $62.50 per share at $4,000 gold.

### Conclusion:

If gold reaches $4,000 per ounce and Aris Mining achieves its projected 700,000 oz production with an AISC of $1,000, the stock price could potentially rise to $60–$65 per share based on current estimates.