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US$65
FV
13.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
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CA$75
18.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
-0.41% p.a.
Profit Margin
20.78%
Future PE
23.35x
Price in 2029
CA$89.97
R$5.36
5.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
5.2% p.a.
Profit Margin
7.09%
Future PE
14.71x
Price in 2029
R$10.95
US$40
35.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
17.8% p.a.
Profit Margin
18.63%
Future PE
22.5x
Price in 2029
US$48.97
JP¥2.48k
28.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
3.33% p.a.
Profit Margin
7.92%
Future PE
19.4x
Price in 2029
JP¥3.19k
US$220
27.2% overvalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
18.65% p.a.
Profit Margin
27.22%
Future PE
33.79x
Price in 2029
US$295.48
US$6.35
7.9% overvalued intrinsic discount
Profit Margin
0.54%
Future PE
47.88x
Price in 2029
US$8.85