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PayPal Holdings

PayPal: PayPal Doesn't Need to Grow – It Needs to Stop Falling – A Mispriced Cash Machine With a Cannibal Buyback

PayPal is widely treated like a payments business in slow decline, but the case here is that it can still do well simply by steadying its core checkout business while using its strong cash generation to steadily shrink its share count. The upside also hinges on whether PayPal’s cross‑platform person‑to‑person payments stay sticky and whether new ways of shopping through AI assistants create a fresh lane for PayPal to plug into.
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US$65
FV
14.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
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Celsius Holdings

From $5M to $2B: Why the 2024 Crash Was the Best Buying Opportunity in Consumer Stocks

A 17-Year Story That Most Investors Only Discovered in the Last Three In 2010, Celsius Holdings (CELH) was generating roughly US$5 million in annual revenue, a forgotten energy drink with niche distribution in Scandinavian gyms and a handful of US health food stores. By the end of 2025, the company had crossed US$2 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue and acquired two major energy drink brands.
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US$55.43
FV
45.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
20.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
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M&C Saatchi

Digital And Issues Practices Will Drive Stronger Margins And Earnings In Coming Years

Catalysts About M&C Saatchi M&C Saatchi is a global marketing services group that delivers integrated advertising, consulting, media, issues, sports and entertainment solutions for clients. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Read more

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UK£1.56
12.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
-21.28% p.a.
Profit Margin
0.13%
Future PE
9.84x
Price in 2028
UK£0.02
STB logo
Storebrand

Aggressive Share Buybacks May Jeopardize Future Earnings In Nordic Pension Market

Key Takeaways Storebrand's Nordic presence and strategic focus on pensions and asset management drive revenue growth and market share expansion. Digital investments and sustainability commitment potentially boost customer satisfaction, efficiency, and revenue, while share buybacks ensure shareholder returns amidst future earnings leverage risks.Read more

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NOK 157.75
26.0% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
-54.77% p.a.
Profit Margin
100%
Future PE
15.54x
Price in 2028
NOK 193.2
GNZ logo
Goodman Property Trust

Online Retail Demand And Green Logistics Assets Will Drive Long Term Industrial Outperformance

Catalysts About Goodman Property Trust Goodman Property Trust owns, develops and manages warehouse and logistics real estate focused on key Auckland industrial locations. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Read more

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NZ$2.2
4.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
-10.86% p.a.
Profit Margin
1.36%
Future PE
15.7x
Price in 2028
NZ$0.03
AGL logo
AGL Energy

Grid-Scale Battery Expansion Will Enable Australia's Clean Energy Transition

Key Takeaways Investments in grid-scale batteries, digital transformation, and service innovation are expected to drive earnings stability, efficiency, and strong top-line growth. Accelerated decarbonization and industry tailwinds are enhancing AGL's competitive position, margins, and long-term access to capital through renewables and market consolidation.Read more

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AU$11.48
28.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
3.81%
Future PE
16.72x
Price in 2028
AU$13.92
SARO logo
StandardAero

Long-Term Engine Maintenance Demand Will Drive Sustained Earnings Expansion

Catalysts About StandardAero StandardAero provides maintenance, repair and overhaul services for commercial, business and military aircraft engines and components across a diversified global platform. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Read more

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US$35.5
22.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
7.42% p.a.
Profit Margin
0.075%
Future PE
27.33x
Price in 2028
US$0.45
PCOR logo
Petron

Retail Fuel Shift And Refining Efficiencies Will Support Stronger Long Term Earnings Power

Catalysts About Petron Petron Corporation operates integrated refining and fuel marketing businesses in the Philippines and Malaysia, supplying petroleum products across retail, commercial, and industrial channels. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Read more

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₱3.85
35.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
18.06% p.a.
Profit Margin
0.025%
Future PE
1.5x
Price in 2028
₱0.07
PLTR logo
Palantir Technologies

Enterprise AI Adoption Will Drive Sustained Gains Through Expanding Commercial Demand

Catalysts About Palantir Technologies Palantir Technologies is an enterprise software company specializing in data integration, artificial intelligence, and analytics platforms designed to deliver transformational impact for commercial and government clients. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Read more

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US$185.7
28.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
40.7% p.a.
Profit Margin
33.2%
Future PE
164.5x
Price in 2028
US$236.94
CTT logo
CTT - Correios De Portugal

Parcels Expansion And Financial Services Will Drive Stronger Long Term Earnings Quality

Catalysts About CTT - Correios De Portugal CTT - Correios De Portugal is a diversified postal, parcels, financial services and retail banking group serving individuals, businesses and public entities in Portugal and selected international markets. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Read more

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€9.31
38.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
8.53% p.a.
Profit Margin
0.062%
Future PE
15.18x
Price in 2028
€0.12
SZL logo
Sezzle

AI And BNPL Adoption Are Expected To Support Long Term Earnings Power

Catalysts About Sezzle Sezzle provides short duration buy now, pay later and subscription based credit products that help consumers budget responsibly at the point of sale. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Read more

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AU$29.82
18.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
-4% p.a.
Profit Margin
0.17%
Future PE
7.25x
Price in 2027
AU$0.41