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Alphabet
BL
BlackGoat
Community Contributor
Alphabet: The Under-appreciated Compounder Hiding in Plain Sight
Summary Google trades at ~18× forward earnings; the cheapest among the Magnificent 7 Market is too focused on AI threats to Search and antitrust noise Meanwhile, Google is executing across AI, Cloud, and YouTube Key AI differentiator: unmatched distribution across 3B+ users via Search, Gmail, YouTube, Android, Chrome, and Cloud Quietly building a world-class AI infrastructure behind the scenes; including proprietary TPUs and a vertically integrated stack YouTube generated $8.93B in Q1 ad revenue (up 10% YoY); subscriptions hit 270M Google Cloud revenue up 28% YoY to $12.3B; now profitable Optionality from long-term bets like Waymo, DeepMind, and Verily Risk/reward is compelling; a strong candidate to beat the market long term Overview Despite being part of the "Magnificent Seven," Google’s stock lags due to perceived risks around disruption of its Search business from AI competitors and mounting antitrust concerns. But under the hood, Google has quietly built one of the most compelling setups in tech: with deep AI leadership, multiple high-growth businesses, and optionality from long-term moonshots like Waymo.
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US$282.83
FV
32.8% undervalued
intrinsic discount
9.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
24
users have liked this narrative
3
users have commented on this narrative
62
users have followed this narrative
Updated
narrative
Planet Labs PBC
AN
andreas_eliades
Community Contributor
Planet Labs: At The Heart Of The Emerging New Space Boom
Planet Labs leads the EO market with the largest satellite constellation, poised to capitalize on the growing demand for Earth Observation and geospatial data from companies and governments. Plunging space launch and GPU computation costs combined with advancements in CubeSat and AI technologies are boosting the utility of Earth Observation data.
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US$11.31
FV
45.4% undervalued
intrinsic discount
30.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
18
users have liked this narrative
1
users have commented on this narrative
67
users have followed this narrative
New
narrative
Exxon Mobil
AG
Agricola
Community Contributor
Exxon in Guyana 5 year forecast Low $135 to High $189
Previous mistake rectified. So as pointed out in the comments, Chevron won the Hess bid (rather than Exxon) and took a large portion of the Stabroek block.
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US$174.00
FV
37.0% undervalued
intrinsic discount
12.97%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
4
users have liked this narrative
4
users have commented on this narrative
17
users have followed this narrative
Updated
narrative
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Carel Industries
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 5 Analysts
F-gas Regulation And Intensifying Competition Will Erode Margins
Key Takeaways Stricter regulations, shifting industry trends, and increased competition threaten Carel's profitability and relevance as traditional HVACR demand weakens and margins come under pressure. Overdependence on the European market and exposure to macroeconomic volatility heighten risks to revenue stability and sustained growth potential.
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€16.90
FV
31.7% overvalued
intrinsic discount
9.07%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
12 days ago
author updated this narrative
H.G. Infra Engineering
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 15 Analysts
Government Delays Will Constrain Margins But India Will Drive Resilience
Key Takeaways Heavy reliance on government projects and land acquisition could expose the company to execution delays, regulatory risks, and cash flow uncertainty. Diversification into new sectors may create topline growth opportunities but introduces margin volatility and exposes the business to fresh execution and regulatory risks.
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₹1.29k
FV
19.9% undervalued
intrinsic discount
21.33%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
12 days ago
author updated this narrative
ARB
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 15 Analysts
Accelerating EV Adoption Will Shrink The 4WD Accessory Market
Key Takeaways Shifts toward electric vehicles, urbanization, and regulatory changes threaten ARB's core market, risking stagnation and greater compliance burdens. Rising operating costs and global competition could erode margins, weaken earnings, and diminish pricing power over time.
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AU$27.00
FV
25.0% overvalued
intrinsic discount
8.64%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
12 days ago
author updated this narrative
Marfrig Global Foods
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 13 Analysts
Rising Plant-Based Trends And Regulatory Hurdles Will Erode Long-Term Value
Key Takeaways Rising demand for alternative proteins and ESG concerns threaten Marfrig's core business, increasing compliance costs and risking exclusion from sustainability-focused investments. Market and operational volatility from input price swings, trade barriers, regional instability, and disease outbreaks heighten risks to earnings and supply stability.
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R$17.50
FV
22.4% overvalued
intrinsic discount
4.13%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
12 days ago
author updated this narrative
Essentra
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 6 Analysts
Mature European Markets Will Constrain Margins While Efficiency Improves
Key Takeaways Expansion into higher-margin regions and digitalization boosts prospects, but overreliance on mature markets and integration risks could limit short-term earnings growth. Transition to sustainable materials and compliance with tightening regulations may inflate costs, challenging profit margins despite improved sustainability offerings.
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UK£1.60
FV
35.6% undervalued
intrinsic discount
2.55%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
12 days ago
author updated this narrative
Fresnillo
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 13 Analysts
Tightening ESG Regulations And Lower Ore Grades Will Undermine Profitability
Key Takeaways Rising regulatory, environmental, and community pressures are set to increase operating costs, complicate mine expansions, and threaten profit margins. Demand headwinds and competitive threats from alternative technologies and metal recycling risk undermining long-term growth and cash flow stability.
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UK£9.14
FV
56.3% overvalued
intrinsic discount
-1.07%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
12 days ago
author updated this narrative
Ashmore Group
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 11 Analysts
Passive Investment Shifts Will Erode Management Fee Margins
Key Takeaways Declining interest in emerging markets and passive investing trends are reducing Ashmore's asset base, fees, and profit margins. Industry consolidation, poor relative performance, and lagging digital adaptation threaten Ashmore's competitiveness and long-term earnings.
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UK£1.20
FV
42.7% overvalued
intrinsic discount
-6.53%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
12 days ago
author updated this narrative
Fairfax Financial Holdings
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 6 Analysts
Catastrophic Losses And Fintech Gap Will Harm Prospects
Key Takeaways Increasing exposure to catastrophic events, climate risks, and reinsurance costs threatens sustained underwriting profitability and pressures long-term margins and earnings. Lagging digital transformation and reliance on traditional investment strategies heighten vulnerability to market shifts, technological disruption, and unpredictable emerging market risks.
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CA$1.61k
FV
49.3% overvalued
intrinsic discount
4.98%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
0
users have followed this narrative
12 days ago
author updated this narrative
G8 Education
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 5 Analysts
Slowing Childcare Demand Will Test Profitability Yet Inspire Efficiency
Key Takeaways Government support and operational improvements are offset by declining birth rates and families opting for informal care, which may restrict long-term revenue growth. Persistent sector-wide staffing challenges, regulatory pressures, and alternative care models threaten to compress margins and limit future scalability.
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AU$1.15
FV
20.4% undervalued
intrinsic discount
2.79%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
2
users have followed this narrative
12 days ago
author updated this narrative
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