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US$65
FV
13.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
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AU$0.36
2.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
33.24% p.a.
Profit Margin
10.76%
Future PE
6.97x
Price in 2029
AU$0.46
AU$0.48
41.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
16.68% p.a.
Profit Margin
2.68%
Future PE
18.96x
Price in 2031
AU$0.98
US$197.4
81.6% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
-5.36% p.a.
Profit Margin
49.75%
Future PE
29.34x
Price in 2031
US$280.5
AU$6.67
16.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
11.4% p.a.
Profit Margin
1.55%
Future PE
21.27x
Price in 2031
AU$9.36
AU$32.18
12.1% overvalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
6.49% p.a.
Profit Margin
27.42%
Future PE
18.41x
Price in 2031
AU$46.85
AU$5.13
0.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
27.64% p.a.
Profit Margin
69%
Future PE
28.13x
Price in 2031
AU$7.2
AU$47.93
20.1% overvalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
4.57% p.a.
Profit Margin
18.97%
Future PE
20.1x
Price in 2031
AU$72.8
AU$39.74
0.3% overvalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
7.54% p.a.
Profit Margin
18.74%
Future PE
26.59x
Price in 2031
AU$56.84
AU$0.4
33.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
20.19% p.a.
Profit Margin
2.76%
Future PE
14.73x
Price in 2031
AU$0.65