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Key Takeaways
- Focused investment in 5G and fiber aims to boost long-term revenue by expanding AT&T's coverage and enhancing service offerings in high-value segments.
- Effective cost management and network transformation strategies are pivotal for improving profitability, operational efficiency, and shareholder value.
- AT&T's strategic focus on fiber and 5G, alongside efforts to manage debt, faces significant risks from market dynamics, operational challenges, and competitive pressures.
Catalysts
About AT&T- Provides telecommunications and technology services worldwide.
- The ongoing investment in 5G and fiber, focusing on expanding AT&T's footprint in these areas, is expected to drive long-term revenue growth through increased coverage and service offerings. This investment aims to strengthen AT&T's position in high-value wireless and broadband segments, impacting overall revenue.
- The consistent growth in Mobility EBITDA, attributed to service revenue growth and service margin expansion, illustrates the potential for enhanced profitability. Focusing on high-value subscribers within the wireless segment can lead to higher net margins by boosting average revenue per user (ARPU) and improving operational efficiency.
- The execution of a convergence strategy, leveraging AT&T's ownership of both 5G and fiber networks, is likely to increase customer retention and attract new subscribers. This approach not only aims to enhance revenue from broadband and mobility services but also seeks to improve the company's competitive position by offering bundled services that can drive up the average revenue per user and reduce churn.
- The significant investment in advanced broadband infrastructure, notably AT&T Fiber, and the early success of AT&T Internet Air indicate a strategic push towards capturing a larger share of the broadband market. The expected impact on the financials includes growth in broadband revenue, driven by an increase in subscribers and a higher ARPU from fiber services, contributing to overall revenue growth and EBITDA margin improvement.
- Effective cost management and network transformation, including reducing net debt leverage and improving free cash flow, are essential components of AT&T's operational strategy. By prioritizing investments in growth areas such as 5G and fiber, while also maintaining financial discipline, AT&T aims to enhance shareholder value through improved profitability and flexibility for sustained investment. The effort to lower interest expenses and manage operating costs more efficiently can directly contribute to improving net margins and earnings.
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming AT&T's revenue will grow by 1.7% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 10.2% today to 13.2% in 3 years time.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach $17.0 billion (and earnings per share of $2.36) by about October 2027, up from $12.5 billion today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 11.2x on those 2027 earnings, down from 12.3x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Telecom industry at 18.3x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.17% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's dollars, we will use a discount rate of 5.8%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- The reliance on achieving key penetration milestones for AT&T Fiber faster than anticipated could face setbacks due to unforeseen market dynamics or operational challenges, impacting revenue growth.
- The strategic pivot towards converged 5G and fiber services may encounter execution risks, including technology integration hurdles or customer adoption rates lower than expected, affecting revenue and earnings.
- Investments in expanding AT&T Fiber, both within its footprint and through partnerships or capital-light arrangements, may not yield the anticipated returns due to competitive pressures or higher than expected operational costs, impacting net margins.
- The continued decline in Business Wireline service revenue, despite efforts to offset this with growth in other areas, suggests a structural challenge that could persist, negatively affecting overall revenue.
- AT&T's strategy to reduce net debt leverage relies on sustained EBITDA growth and free cash flow improvement, which could be at risk from market or operational volatilities, potentially impacting the company's financial flexibility.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of $22.4 for AT&T based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $30.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $13.0.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2027, revenues will be $128.5 billion, earnings will come to $17.0 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 11.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 5.8%.
- Given the current share price of $21.51, the analyst's price target of $22.4 is 4.0% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
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Disclaimer
Warren A.I. is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by Warren A.I. are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that Warren A.I.'s analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
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