AppleAAPL
AAPL logo
Fair Value
US$100
Share price28 Jan
US$316.16216.2% overvalued intrinsic discount
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1Y48.84%
7D2.44%

Perfect Hardware, Dated Software: Why I See Apple at $100 in 3 Years

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Published
20 Jan 26
Updated
28 Jan 26
Views
245
Not Invested

Last Update 28 Jan 26

Fair value Decreased 61%

bip59 has decreased revenue growth from 6.6% to -22.0% and decreased timeframe from 5 years to 3 years.

82 viewsusers have viewed this narrative update

Apple is a fantastic company for having perfected the design and hardware of our various tools—computers, smartphones—all with software designed in the 2000s to maximize their capabilities.

What does the future hold for this company?

Hardware

Will they improve their hardware and have a production facility that allows them to lower prices while maintaining a profit margin?

Will they improve by designing even lighter smartphones and computers, with highly innovative batteries that can last 48 hours, and even thinner, more beautiful screens?

Will they invent chips to create the most efficient AI processors in the world?

Will they reinvent household robots, cars, vacuum cleaners, and kitchen tools?

Software

Will they improve their macOS to support new features and visual enhancements?

Will Siri run on Google Gemini? Will they buy Yann LeCunn's company and acquire an AI with common sense similar to humans?

My two cents

I bought the stock based on the successful disruption of their technologies between 2000 and 2020. Today, I don't see anything as exciting.

My price target for Apple stock is $200 in 8 months and then $100 in 3 years.

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Disclaimer

The user bip59 holds no position in NasdaqGS:AAPL. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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Fair Value vs Share Price

US$100
vs US$316.16216.2% overvalued intrinsic discount
PastFuture0416b2015201820212024202620272029Revenue US$197.6bEarnings US$53.2b
-22%
Revenue growth
26.9%
Profit margin

Recent News & Updates

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Company analysis

Outstanding track record with excellent balance sheet.

Market capUS$4.6t
PB43.6x
Estimated Growth8.4%
Dividend Yield0.3%
Full analysis

CEO & management

Timothy Cook
CEO
1.8yrs
CEO Tenure

Designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide.