Last Update05 Oct 25Fair value Decreased 1.91%
The analyst price target for Klaviyo has been modestly lowered, with fair value shifting from $46.70 to $45.81. Analysts cite concerns about the company’s revenue guidance, although they continue to expect above-average growth.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research has provided a nuanced view of Klaviyo’s outlook, reflecting both confidence in the company’s long-term growth potential and near-term caution regarding its revenue trajectory and broader sector pressures.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts highlight Klaviyo’s expansion from email marketing to a broader customer relationship management platform. This increases its total addressable market and long-term opportunities.
- Upward revisions to price targets by certain analysts reflect renewed confidence in Klaviyo’s ability to sustain over 20% sales growth and demonstrate operating leverage. This aspect is considered underappreciated at current valuation levels.
- Strong quarterly results, including over 30% year-over-year top-line growth and significant profit and cash flow upside, reinforce Klaviyo’s position as a critical digital engagement and revenue-generating platform for brands.
- Resilient international performance, with robust growth rates even amid macroeconomic and tariff uncertainties, contributes positively to sentiment on future execution.
- Bearish analysts cite concerns about the company’s recent omission of long-term revenue guidance at its analyst day. This suggests uncertainty around Klaviyo’s ability to meet aggressive growth targets.
- Cautious commentary follows the sector’s exposure to emerging competition, with new AI-based tools challenging incumbents and potentially weighing on marketing technology valuations, including Klaviyo’s.
- Some analysts have modestly reduced their price targets, reflecting the risk that the market may be reacting to a lack of visibility on growth beyond fiscal year 2028.
- There are concerns that without explicit long-term targets, investor confidence in Klaviyo’s multi-year compounding growth may soften and impact near-term share price performance.
What's in the News
- Klaviyo unveiled its Marketing Agent and broadly released its Customer Agent, positioning itself as an AI-first B2C CRM that unifies data, marketing, service, and analytics for consumer brands. (Product-Related Announcements)
- The Marketing Agent autonomously plans and launches campaigns, creates on-brand content, and personalizes every send. The Customer Agent delivers 24/7 personalized assistance to consumers across multiple channels. (Product-Related Announcements)
- Klaviyo has launched Klaviyo Service in public beta, introducing Conversational AI Agents, Customer Hub, and Helpdesk to deliver AI-driven, personalized online shopping experiences for brands of all sizes. (Product-Related Announcements)
- Klaviyo completed a $195.1 million follow-on equity offering, issuing 6.5 million shares of Series A common stock at $30.01 per share. (Follow-on Equity Offerings)
- A lock-up period affecting various classes of Klaviyo stock and securities is set to end on October 13, 2025. This will temporarily restrict the sale or transfer of these shares and warrants. (End of Lock-Up Period)
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has decreased modestly from $46.70 to $45.81, signaling a slight reduction in perceived fair value.
- Discount Rate has moved slightly, remaining at 8.47%.
- Revenue Growth is projected to increase slightly, from 21.42% to 21.59%.
- Net Profit Margin has edged down marginally, from 4.57% to 4.55%.
- Future P/E has declined modestly, dropping from 247.8x to 243.1x.
Key Takeaways
- International expansion, product innovation, and upmarket moves position Klaviyo for sustained topline growth, higher customer retention, and margin improvement.
- Growing regulatory focus on first-party data and marketing stack consolidation strengthens Klaviyo's competitive edge and broadens its market opportunity.
- Margin pressures, product uncertainty, customer volatility, fierce competition, and reliance on key partners all threaten Klaviyo's long-term growth and profitability outlook.
Catalysts
About Klaviyo- A technology company, provides a software-as-a-service platform in the United States, other Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
- Growing international expansion, supported by new language rollouts, local channel integrations (e.g., WhatsApp), and localization efforts, is driving strong topline growth (e.g., 42% international revenue growth YoY), with further penetration of both SMB and enterprise segments likely to expand future revenue and earnings.
- The regulatory and technical shift away from third-party cookies and toward first-party data benefits Klaviyo's unified, vertically integrated platform, positioning them to capture more wallet share from brands seeking compliant, data-driven personalization solutions-supporting future revenue and margin resiliency.
- The rapid innovation and rollout of new AI-first products-including Conversational Agent, Helpdesk, and analytics-expands Klaviyo's addressable market from just marketing automation into broader B2C CRM and customer service, setting up significant opportunities for higher ARPU and long-term revenue growth.
- Accelerating digital transformation among SMBs and the company's move upmarket into enterprise/mid-market customers (as demonstrated by record adds to the $50k+ ARR cohort) reduce revenue concentration risk and support more stable, recurring revenue and operating margin improvement as Klaviyo achieves greater scale.
- The trend of marketing stack consolidation, with brands seeking integrated platforms to unify data and automate consumer engagement across marketing and service, favors Klaviyo's data-centric ecosystem, lowering customer churn and driving higher net margins through improved retention and cross-sell opportunities.
Klaviyo Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming Klaviyo's revenue will grow by 21.4% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -6.2% today to 4.6% in 3 years time.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach $88.3 million (and earnings per share of $0.27) by about September 2028, up from $-66.7 million today.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 244.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from -140.5x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Software industry at 36.6x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.43%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Klaviyo Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- Higher infrastructure and SMS channel costs are pressuring gross margins, and management indicated that future growth in SMS/RCS/WhatsApp will likely keep gross margins flat or potentially declining in the near term, which could weigh on long-term profitability and net margins.
- The success of new service products (like the AI Helpdesk, Customer Hub, and Conversational Agent) is uncertain, as they are currently in beta and not expected to materially impact revenue or margins in the short-to-medium term, increasing the risk that anticipated product expansion does not deliver projected revenue or earnings growth.
- Klaviyo's historic and ongoing strong reliance on SMB and entrepreneur customers exposes it to higher volatility and potential churn during macroeconomic downturns-creating topline risk and margin compression during periods of economic or e-commerce softness.
- Intensifying competition from consolidated cloud suites (Salesforce, Adobe, HubSpot) and emerging AI-native marketing platforms could commoditize marketing automation and customer data solutions, pressuring Klaviyo's pricing power, customer retention, and long-term revenue/profit growth.
- Dependence on partner ecosystems and integrations (with platforms like Shopify and WooCommerce) creates potential operational and competitive risks-if key partners introduce competing solutions or if Klaviyo's integration lags industry standards, customer loss and slower revenue expansion may result.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of $46.2 for Klaviyo based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $60.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $37.0.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.9 billion, earnings will come to $88.3 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 244.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.4%.
- Given the current share price of $31.23, the analyst price target of $46.2 is 32.4% higher.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
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Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
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